Caribbean Tropical Wave along 65W (Potential BOC System) (Is INVEST 90L)

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow
to occur over the next several days while the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent



Isn't this what the ECMWF develops in the Gulf in 8-9 days from now? The ECMWF 850MB vorticity animation from hour 0 to 240 below:

[cycloneye]

This wave is not what ECMWF has as is another wave behind this one that has weak development.

[gatorcane]

This wave is not what ECMWF has as is another wave behind this one that has weak development.

Right but the Euro Gulf storm looks to be this wave NHC is currently giving a 0/10% chance to.

[gatorcane]

Past couple of runs of the NAVGEM develop this, 180 hours below heading though Bahamas towards SE Florida but it is the NAVGEM:

[abajan]

It's totally gone from the latest TWO.

[stormreader]

This wave is not what ECMWF has as is another wave behind this one that has weak development.

The disturbance further east, I think. It looks a little better on latest sat imagery.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Firing some convection on the north side on the wave.
Could be a sign?

[GCANE]

Shear is really dying out along 10N.
Good UL Diverengence and LL Convergence especially from 30W to 50W.
Seeing some good persistant convection in a couple locations.
May having something pop up in the next day or two.
I am looking at maybe ~10N 45W.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and JMA show development of this wave near the Yucatan/BOC/Western Gulf in the long-range (8-9 days). 12Z ECMWF 216 hour image below.

[abajan]

I'm not sure which wave this flareup in convection is connected with (assuming it's associated with a wave).



From what I can tell, it's not mentioned in the latest TWD.

[GCANE]

Watching this one too.
I thought something would fire up around here a couple days ago.

[GCANE]

Looks like it may be an MCS created by a shear axis to its north.
However, 700mb vort doesn't look too bad.
If this keep firing for the next day or two, could develop into something.

[GCANE]

Appears that a line of towers fired off along a convergence axis.
Building some cirrus layering from it.
Keeping a close eye on this one.

[AJC3]

I'm not sure which wave this flareup in convection is connected with (assuming it's associated with a wave).

From what I can tell, it's not mentioned in the latest TWD.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N58W to
06N58W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan
Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave,
mainly north of 19N. Isolated moderate convection is observed
between 54W-65W, mainly south of 19N.

[Siker]

So it seems that the Euro/GFS/JMA/NAVGEM all develop this beginning in 6-7 days in the Western Caribbean. Euro shows pretty beautiful conditions as it crosses the Yucatán, besides the fact that you know... it's crossing over the Yucatán.

[AJC3]

So it seems that the Euro/GFS/JMA/NAVGEM all develop this beginning in 6-7 days in the Western Caribbean. Euro shows pretty beautiful conditions as it crosses the Yucatán, besides the fact that you know... it's crossing over the Yucatán.

Given the forward speed of this wave, and from what I see in the models. the wave is forecast to interact with some vort energy over the southern Caribbean, which then coalesces and begins to amplify over the far western Caribbean as it slows down in about 5-6 days, then crosses the Yucatan, with some models spinning up a low in the BOC in 7-9 days.

It's a bit unclear to me how much vorticity comes from this wave, and/or something behind it. It initially looks awful strung out at H85. The wave has been crusing along at 7-8 degrees per day, so it should actually reach the western Caribbean in about 3-4 days.

[Siker]

So it seems that the Euro/GFS/JMA/NAVGEM all develop this beginning in 6-7 days in the Western Caribbean. Euro shows pretty beautiful conditions as it crosses the Yucatán, besides the fact that you know... it's crossing over the Yucatán.

Given the forward speed of this wave, and from what I see in the models. the wave is forecast to interact with some vort energy over the southern Caribbean, which then coalesces and begins to amplify over the far western Caribbean as it slows down in about 5-6 days, then crosses the Yucatan, with some models spinning up a low in the BOC in 7-9 days.

It's a bit unclear to me how much vorticity comes from this wave, and/or something behind it. It initially looks awful strung out at H85. The wave has been crusing along at 7-8 degrees per day, so it should actually reach the western Caribbean in about 3-4 days.

Should we keep the discussion of the BoC system confined to the models thread for now then?

[AJC3]

So it seems that the Euro/GFS/JMA/NAVGEM all develop this beginning in 6-7 days in the Western Caribbean. Euro shows pretty beautiful conditions as it crosses the Yucatán, besides the fact that you know... it's crossing over the Yucatán.

Given the forward speed of this wave, and from what I see in the models. the wave is forecast to interact with some vort energy over the southern Caribbean, which then coalesces and begins to amplify over the far western Caribbean as it slows down in about 5-6 days, then crosses the Yucatan, with some models spinning up a low in the BOC in 7-9 days.

It's a bit unclear to me how much vorticity comes from this wave, and/or something behind it. It initially looks awful strung out at H85. The wave has been crusing along at 7-8 degrees per day, so it should actually reach the western Caribbean in about 3-4 days.

Should we keep the discussion of the BoC system confined to the models thread for now then?

I don't see a problem in discussing it here for now, as there does seem to be some contribution to the system from this wave.

[Alyono]

Canadian seems to keep this in the SW Caribbean. GFS tried to develop it, but unlike the EC, JMA, and NAVGEM, it has a large upper trough over the Gulf instead of an upper ridge

[abajan]

I'm not sure which wave this flareup in convection is connected with (assuming it's associated with a wave).

From what I can tell, it's not mentioned in the latest TWD.

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N58W to
06N58W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large
area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the
GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan
Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave,
mainly north of 19N. Isolated moderate convection is observed
between 54W-65W, mainly south of 19N.

The convection I saw was actually mostly from 54W eastward. That's why I said it didn't appear to have been mentioned in the TWD. The closest I see in what you quoted is "54W-65W".