Possible Gulf Development (INVEST 98L is up)

[Nimbus]

Maybe we get two low pressure areas, one off either coast to watch?

[northjaxpro]

Maybe we get two low pressure areas, one off either coast to watch?

This is a possibility. It almost seems as if some type of wave of low pressure is moving through Northeast Florida at this hour. I had a pressure reading of 1009.3 mb in the past hour here and very heavy rain. Just measured nearly 1.3 inches in less than 20 minutes.. Also, wind here is light from the west ahead of the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, just north of me at the Brunswick, GA airport at this hour is reporting NE wind 12 mph and 1012 mb as the frontal boundary has passed them by.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a dissipating
frontal boundary over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or so, and then move eastward across the Florida peninsula
into the western Atlantic by midweek. Any development should be
slow to occur due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds and
proximity to land. However, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern
Florida during the next couple of days. Please see additional
information from your local National Weather Service Forecast
Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[wxman57]

Other than the 30-50 kts of wind shear, I'd say it has a chance...

[northjaxpro]

No joking there from the TWO. I am already over 1.5 inches of rainfall this morning already. Still raining heavy at this hour. NWS may need to post Flood Watch for NE Florida very soon.

[northjaxpro]

Just got a wind shift, from light west to now north at 12 mph here at my weather station with heavy rain. Pressure now slightly up to 1011.2 mb. Some sort of Low Pressure wave is definitely moving through Jax metro area currently. It possibly could also be the actual frontal boundary moving through as well.

[northjaxpro]

The wind has picked up considerably over the past hour. NE wind gusted to 30 miles an hour here at my weather station the past 30 minutes.The pressure is still holding at around 1011 mb.

I think we had both the frontal boundary passage and a wave of Low Pressure experienced here the past hour. I think we have a Low Pressure wave along the front immediately just off the coast of Mayport.

[stormreader]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No offense to y'all over in Florida but I wish something would develop. Looking like it has a very slim chance of that happening now and wouldn't amount to much of anything if it even did. But it would keep the western end of the old boundary from moving back to far north and inland over here. Now it looks like we could be setting up for a potential flooding threat later this week through the weekend with the front slowly moving back over our area and disturbances embedded moving across that wilk potentially produce lots of rain.

[fwbbreeze]

Long range radar shows a bit of rotation.

[robbielyn]

Other than the 30-50 kts of wind shear, I'd say it has a chance...

so it has a chance then? j/k nothing like wxman57 putting things in perspective and cuttin' to the bottom line.

[srainhoutx]

No offense to y'all over in Florida but I wish something would develop. Looking like it has a very slim chance of that happening now and wouldn't amount to much of anything if it even did. But it would keep the western end of the old boundary from moving back to far north and inland over here. Now it looks like we could be setting up for a potential flooding threat later this week through the weekend with the front slowly moving back over our area and disturbances embedded moving across that wilk potentially produce lots of rain.

Keep an eye offshore of the Texas Coast in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Wind sheer has collapsed to nothing and if the storms persist and expand the next day or two as the boundary lingers and washes out, then we may need to monitor that area. That said another cold front pushes to near Coastal Texas next weekend. Wash...Rinse...Repeat...

[MGC]

Looks to me like a little twist in the clouds south of Destin. Low could be forming there.....MGC

[KimmieLa]

No offense to y'all over in Florida but I wish something would develop. Looking like it has a very slim chance of that happening now and wouldn't amount to much of anything if it even did. But it would keep the western end of the old boundary from moving back to far north and inland over here. Now it looks like we could be setting up for a potential flooding threat later this week through the weekend with the front slowly moving back over our area and disturbances embedded moving across that wilk potentially produce lots of rain.

Living in BTR, this brings concern to my heart. I don't know if you flooded last August, Cyclone Mike, but, we sure did. The thousand year flood can't happen again, right?

[robbielyn]

here in Tampa bay area. we have 1013mb. on baynews9.com under weather then marine then winds it shows low out in the gulf near Destin but attached to the stationary front for now.

[AJC3]

This type of setup, where an unusual summer or very early fall season frontal boundary reaches the deep south (and particularly Florida) and stalls is notorious for producing numerous transient low level vortices along the stalled boundary on both the GOMEX and Atlantic sides of the Florida peninsula. The synoptic scale flow pattern features a large area of horizontal cyclonic shear, with NE flow to the north of the boundary and stout SW flow to it's south, which is quite conducive to vortex formation in virtually any area that can get a cluster of semi-persistent convection going.

I've probably seen this setup at least a dozen times during JUL-OCT since I've been forecasting down here (going on 24 years), and I think we'll probably see it occur again in this case.

[Steve]

Thanks AJC. That's what I expected after the GFS started showing multiple vortices off the East Coast. I didn't guess one would form over the Gulf but, there were to be 3 or so more after that summer nor'easter that GFS had coming out of the pattern

Also NAM 3km is going with 2 Gulf lows through 60 hours. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=99

[TheAustinMan]

Now listed as Invest 98L:

Code: Select all

AL, 98, 2017073012,   , BEST,   0, 285N,  865W,  25, 1010, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,   80,  25,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al762017 to al982017,


[cycloneye]

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system has developed over
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of
Apalachicola, Florida. Upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive for this system to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics tonight and Monday before it moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula on Tuesday, and into the western Atlantic
by Wednesday. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of central and
northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. Please see
additional information from your local National Weather Service
Forecast Offices concerning the rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98L is up