Central Atlantic Tropical Wave near 41W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Central Atlantic Tropical Wave near 41W
This one may need to be watched as the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and the Euro on odd runs have development and possibly a decent tropical system out of this so it will be something to track IMO
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Mon Jul 31, 2017 12:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
Hurricaneman wrote:This one may need to be watched as the UKMET, Canadian, GFS, and the Euro on odd runs have development and possibly a decent tropical system out of this so it will be something to track IMO
Anyone want to place bets of EURO dropping all development and then followed by the GFS?
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
Almost all models have this initialized.
UKMET most aggressive.
At this point looks like it makes it to NE of PR around Friday.
At that point it looks like it ingests dry air from the 1025 mb Bermuda High.
Could be touch and go then.
If it survives and steers into the Bahamas, a lot of high Theta-E air could re-energize it with dropping 355K PV.
Looks like sheer in the Bahamas could clear out over the weekend,
UKMET most aggressive.
At this point looks like it makes it to NE of PR around Friday.
At that point it looks like it ingests dry air from the 1025 mb Bermuda High.
Could be touch and go then.
If it survives and steers into the Bahamas, a lot of high Theta-E air could re-energize it with dropping 355K PV.
Looks like sheer in the Bahamas could clear out over the weekend,
0 likes
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
Tons of deep convergence, lots of juice to work with.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
0 likes
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
Very well defined 850mb vort, especially for being at 10N.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
0 likes
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
Looks like a good running start to sweep out SAL around it.
Air column completely saturated from Boundary Layer to 200mb.
Air column completely saturated from Boundary Layer to 200mb.
0 likes
Re: New tropical wave near west African coast
gatorcane wrote:No mention by NHC yet.
Very likely in the next TWO.
0 likes
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave south of the CV Islands
18z GFS drops development.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1805
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
- Location: Plantation,Fla
-
Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7281
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Tropical Wave south of the CV Islands
AtlanticWind wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Pretty strong convection this evening.
Could be the next MDR system to possibly develop, we'll see
0 likes
Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the CV Islands
Kinda surprised it wasn't mentioned in the latest TWO. It may just be a temporary flare up, though.
0 likes
-
gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: Tropical Wave SSW of the CV Islands
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing a
large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing a
large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
-
alienstorm
- Category 1
- Posts: 496
- Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 1:29 pm
- Location: Miami Fla western suburb
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Not much hope for it, given upper level environment
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
AutoPenalti
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
alienstorm wrote:Not much hope for it, given upper level environment
Another one bites the dust.
Literally.
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139053
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
A tropical wave accompanied by a low pressure system is producing a
large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development is possible during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level
winds are expected to become less conducive for development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands
5-Day Formation Chance Decreased to 10%
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 ...
A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected
to be slow to occur during the next few days while the disturbance
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are expected to
become too strong for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 ...
A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected
to be slow to occur during the next few days while the disturbance
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are expected to
become too strong for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Blake
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139053
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
Down to 0%.
A tropical wave is producing a small area of disorganized shower
activity several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development while this system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
A tropical wave is producing a small area of disorganized shower
activity several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development while this system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], JetFuel_SE, kenayers, Pas_Bon, StPeteMike, tolakram, weeniepatrol, Zeta and 105 guests