Another GOM Disturbance

[Aric Dunn]

A second vort is developing to the NE of that eddy. the CMC actually shows the lobe off to the NE that eventually develops the most vorticity.

[Dean4Storms]

A second vort is developing to the NE of that eddy. the CMC actually shows the lobe off to the NE that eventually develops the most vorticity.

But into very dry air!

[Aric Dunn]

A second vort is developing to the NE of that eddy. the CMC actually shows the lobe off to the NE that eventually develops the most vorticity.

But into very dry air!

yes also the stalled front will be lifting north... notice the big surge of moisture from the south and convection building to the NE ? .. its has plenty to draw from.. shear is the big factors.

[stormreader]

Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?

That's the question. I don't see much movement in the area at this point. If this system does persist it may have detached from the old frontal flow (ENE). Thus a normal climo scenario might mean a NW or NNW movement for a system organizing in that location. Let's just see if it persists.

There is a large upper low over the Great Lakes in a couple of days that will bring another boundary down that will probably wash out. Still there will be SW winds that should start cranking ahead of it. I can only see ENE or E toward Florida if that upper low ends up as forecast.

Thanks for that info. I should have figured as much. Fronts often coming in two's about a week apart. Guessing that the configuration of the jet stream holds for that amount of time to bring another mass of air down.

[Stormcenter]

Area to look at for any "possible" development is south of SE LA/MS/AL coastline. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[Nimbus]

That area spit out one eddy earlier and now further south you can see some rotation where the high clouds have blown off. Shear doesn't look quite as formidable further south and may ease further as the frontal zone weakens.

The new spin is partially visible further west of the eddy under the mid level clouds (almost stationary ATM).

[stormhunter7]

The little spin on the left side?

[Aric Dunn]

well look at that.. convection building in towards the center of that eddy may tuen out to be more than just a swirl with that type of convective pattern.. .... interesting interesting..

[Sciencerocks]

well look at that.. convection building in towards the center of that eddy may tuen out to be more than just a swirl with that type of convective pattern.. .... interesting interesting..

Yep, looks well defined. Just needs to sustain convection and build convergence. Could be something if shear doesn't own it!

[northjaxpro]

well look at that.. convection building in towards the center of that eddy may tuen out to be more than just a swirl with that type of convective pattern.. .... interesting interesting..

Yes, convection and moisture will lift back northward going forward as this old decaying frontal boundary lifts north in tandem.

This will help to moisten the environment, especially beginning tomorrow. If the shear can relax just a little bit more, tomorrow may be when this disturbed area may begin to get cranking.

[floridasun78]

i don't see any thing come this area only rain gulf coast it unlikely nhc say any thing bout this area any time soon

[Sciencerocks]

i don't see any thing come this area only rain gulf coast it unlikely nhc say any thing bout this area any time soon

So you feel the shear will win? I aint going to disagree but this is the most interesting area to watch over the next 72-120 hours.

[floridasun78]

i don't see any thing come this area only rain gulf coast it unlikely nhc say any thing bout this area any time soon

So you feel the shear will win? I aint going to disagree but this is the most interesting area to watch over the next 72-120 hours.

i do it will need fight shear

[Aric Dunn]

quite few decent hot towers firing off over the center and along that band. maybe a mention at 8pm..

[Emmett_Brown]

It's kind of forming before our eyes, assuming that small tight spiral and new convection continues to grow. That's a very compact and circular spin.

[GCANE]

Looks like the swirl is at about 27.0N 87.5W
It came out of a high CAPE area with decent moisture column.
I like the convection its firing.
Keeping a close eye on it.

[stormhunter7]

Feeling is the ULL in TX will continue to send shear over this are in GOM?

[Nimbus]

About the size of a large water spout but it does have some convection reforming.

[GCANE]

Pretty strong increase in vort last few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Its also small enough that if dry/shear casue a large enough collapse of the convection it could just blow apart..