Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)

[gatorcane]

Strong ECMWF model support and also CMC support:

[Hurricaneman]

This could be something that has to be watched in the lesser Antilles and maybe Puerto Rico and possibly Hispaniola but beyond then maybe the SE coast of the United States or even GOM but that's no guarantee

[Alyono]

EPS calls for immediate intensification with a 70-80% chance of a TS near Africa. However, the probs are quite a bit lower near the islands than the 0Z

[TheStormExpert]

12z GEFS Ensembles gradually becoming more bullish.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/892819756729937930

[Kingarabian]

EPS calls for immediate intensification with a 70-80% chance of a TS near Africa. However, the probs are quite a bit lower near the islands than the 0Z

Interesting to see if they change their mind as soon as it splashes down. Models have done it so far this season.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/892844565324890113

[Kingarabian]

It's going to have to maintain its large moisture envelope and keep a low latitude. NASA showing moderate dust AOT levels above and in the vicinity of the MDR for the next 5 days.

[RL3AO]

It's going to have to maintain its large moisture envelope and keep a low latitude. NASA showing moderate dust AOT levels across the MDR for the next 5 days.

I don't see an issue at all.



Compared to a week ago



And Monday

[Kingarabian]

It's going to have to maintain its large moisture envelope and keep a low latitude. NASA showing moderate dust AOT levels across the MDR for the next 5 days.

I don't see an issue at all.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Ap4TyfR.png[img]

Compared to a week ago

[img]https://i.imgur.com/p6boHjN.png[img]

And Monday

[img]https://i.imgur.com/6Q9jgHK.png[img]

On a scale of 0.04 to 0.68, I see AOT levels of at least 0.30 creeping below towards 10N in 72 hours, and past 5 days, even higher values @ 10N + extending to 50W. Per the 12z NASA. So I think there will be potential for random dry air shots into this system, could be why the Euro keeps it only a weak TS. Euro also has a less of a moist environment north of the Caribbean. Could be what keeps it in check there.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is also showing a much more moist MDR as well per its RH graphics.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF are all supporting development of this wave.

[TheStormExpert]

Now watch the three global models drop development on their 00z runs for the GFS to jump on board.

[Sciencerocks]

UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF are all supporting development of this wave.

Now that it is August the chances of Cape verde development should support the models conclusion. I'll give this a 40% chance at developing into something within the next week.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[Sciencerocks]

Starts developing at 30 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=228

1014mb at 42 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=228

48 hours 1011mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0218&fh=48

60 hrs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0218&fh=60

[Kingarabian]

Very low latitude on the 18z GFS.

[Siker]

GFS is latching on by 72 hours. Wheels up y'all !

[Kingarabian]

Let's see what sort of adventure the GFS will take us on.

[Sciencerocks]

GFS is latching on by 72 hours. Wheels up y'all !

Yep,

72hr https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0218&fh=72

84hr 1009mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

96hr 1007mb https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

[Blown Away]

12 Euro has a TS/Cane moving across Atlantic, NE Caribbean, PR, and dies in Hispaniola... Remnants seem to continue WNW, so any deviation N of Hispaniola may bring a system near the SE Bahamas/Cuba/CONUS @Aug 13 - 15th...

Posted in models also, but the Euro storm comes from this emerging wave...