Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa (INVEST 99L is up)

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#141 Postby Dylan » Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:58 pm

That would be the first major hurricane strike on Georgia since 1898, not surprisingly, a similar track. Doubt that will happen but it highlights how dangerous the steering pattern is this year.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#142 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:58 pm

It's funny that Steve and I and a couple of others were talking about this setup yesterday.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#143 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:04 am

Ominous run, but if a major hurricane hit the US East Coast every time the GFS forecast one to do so 13 days out, me and everybody else along the shoreline would be dead so not a good track record. :lol:

Bottom line is that conditions appear conducive for development and intensification of a tropical cyclone in the MDR over the next few days.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#144 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:06 am

I'm very curious to see what the ECMWF 00z run will show at 240 hours, both upper level pattern and storm strength. The 00z GFS and CMC have a formidable system at 240 hours.

00z GFS at 240 hours:
Image

00z CMC at 240 hours:
Image
Last edited by USTropics on Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#145 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:06 am

Up to 20/50

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of
Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by early next week over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-
northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Image
Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#146 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:10 am

Would expect this to be designated an invest sometime tomorrow once it's actually completely over water.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#147 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:24 am

A much stronger signal from the 00z GFS ensembles:

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#148 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:26 am

Kind of ironic to think just two days ago we were all talking about going the first 2-3 weeks of August with no storms and now the models are trending towards potential hurricane in the first third of the month.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#149 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:29 am

If I had to guess I'd say that the cmc, Ukmet and ecmwf's southern position is more likely the right one considering the building high to the north. we will see of course, but this season has favored a "solid" azores/bermuda high and if this continues then this season should be something different from the past 4-5 seasons...wait and see I guess.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#150 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:31 am

It's very far out but that steering pattern looks very ominous for anyone from SE FL to the OBX...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#151 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:32 am

USTropics wrote:A much stronger signal from the 00z GFS ensembles:

Image



They favor a much more southerly position(3-6 degrees) compared to the Op.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#152 Postby Fego » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:35 am

My two cents: per the TWO's cone, looks like the NHC goes with the UKMET/ECMWF in terms of trajectory, and with the GFS in terms of time line for development.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#153 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:50 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
USTropics wrote:A much stronger signal from the 00z GFS ensembles:




They favor a much more southerly position(3-6 degrees) compared to the Op.


Essentially the GFS ensembles show a wide range of solutions, including recurving, Carolina/Florida/Georgia landfall, and even a GOM cruiser. To be expected though this far out with such a progressive pattern.

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#154 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:05 am

00z Euro coming in weaker. As expected, the models initially back off in intensity as soon as the wave touches the ocean.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#155 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:17 am

00z Euro 96 hours out.

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#156 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:18 am

Kingarabian wrote:00z Euro coming in weaker. As expected, the models initially back off in intensity as soon as the wave touches the ocean.


There does appear to be some dry air on the western periphery of the AEW in both the GFS and ECMWF 00z runs. I imagine quite a bit of energy will be needed to just keep building convection on the western side as it erodes, debilitating development initially.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#157 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:23 am

Don't foresee much the rest of the run; choking on dry air.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#158 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:29 am

Through 120 hours, the ECMWF is quite a bit faster then the GFS and CMC:

Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#159 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:32 am

Significantly weaker and further south, 00z ECMWF essentially has an open wave in 6 days crossing the Leewards.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave Emerging off Africa

#160 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:35 am

USTropics wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:00z Euro coming in weaker. As expected, the models initially back off in intensity as soon as the wave touches the ocean.


There does appear to be some dry air on the western periphery of the AEW in both the GFS and ECMWF 00z runs. I imagine quite a bit of energy will be needed to just keep building convection on the western side as it erodes, debilitating development initially.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3pMajOp.gif[/ig]


Yep NASA showed moderate dry air levels. We touched up on it in the first couple of pages.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
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