Trough along the SE US Coast

[floridasun78]

a lot rain here miami but afternoon was drier

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A weak and elongated area of low pressure has formed about 100 miles
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida. This low is accompanied
by disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from southern
Florida and the northern Bahamas northeastward across the
southwestern Atlantic. Significant development is not anticipated
but this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Florida peninsula as it moves northward during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop of last vis satellite.

[LarryWx]

I find it interesting that even the just released 0Z GFS has the weak low associated with this in the middle of the FL peninsula (not even near the coast) right now when satellite and posters have been suggesting it is clearly offshore in the Atlantic!

[AJC3]

I find it interesting that even the just released 0Z GFS has the weak low associated with this in the middle of the FL peninsula (not even near the coast) right now when satellite and posters have been suggesting it is clearly offshore in the Atlantic!

A global model, such as the 13KM GFS, isn't going to refine this feature very well to begin with, especially the way it's initialized. In fact, it's not really designed to do so. However, the high res (2-6KM) mesomodels are doing pretty well with this feature, as you'd expect. The HRRR and WRF-ARW have this feature a little offshore the tip of the Cape and drift the feature pretty much due northward through tonight. Really neat to see the enhanced low level convergence and nocturnal marine instability cycle combine to make the showers fill in around the center, and pretty much across the entire eastern semicircle of the broad/weak circulation.

[AJC3]

Pretty sweet scatterometer pass....

[Nimbus]

Could this be crossing into the gulf?
Radar echoes look strange this morning.

[AJC3]

Could this be crossing into the gulf? Radar echoes look strange this morning.

I doubt it. It looks like the original weak LLC is moving onshore around Mosquito Lagoon, and I suspect it will weaken and dissipate, while another (weak) one takes shape farther north, offshore around Ormond-Flagler Beach.

[AJC3]

Center is still hanging out right along the coast over the north side of the Cape. Nice little convective band on it's eastern side putting on a bit of a light show, visible here at the office.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, there is a surface Low Pressure center right at the coast.near Titusville. NWS Melbourne radar shows it essentially right over the northeastern side of Cape Canaveral, moving very little at this time. It is weak though. only at 1016 mb.

[NDG]

Our little circulation is just east of Daytona Beach this morning, has moved very little during the night. Below is a 10 hr radar loop, it has been getting a bit of a northerly shear.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the little circulation is literally inching.or crawling tself northward just off the coast.

[jlauderdal]

this feature has been far more interesting than many of the tropical disturbances we see in the atlantic

[lrak]

There is also a small spin NW of the Florida Keys.

[Blown Away]

I like that it was important to label the Lauderdale-By-The-Sea community...

gr level allows you to always show cities of your choosing, image has been rectified..

Lol, the important places in SFL...

[nativefloridian]

Invest on NHC site now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[OuterBanker]

I guess because they don't think this has any real chance of becoming a tropical storm that they will leave this thread alone and not lock it and move it to an active invest.

[Fishing]

Invest on NHC site now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Will this be 90L or will they just leave it at "Invest". I've never seen that before.

[HURAKAN]

I guess because they don't think this has any real chance of becoming a tropical storm that they will leave this thread alone and not lock it and move it to an active invest.

looking at the ATCF, Invest 91 has not been activated. Thus, there is no real invest yet.

[nativefloridian]

Invest on NHC site now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Will this be 90L or will they just leave it at "Invest". I've never seen that before.

Me either and I don't know the answer.