Trough along the SE US Coast

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity increasing:

[ronjon]

Starting to show up on MIA long range RAD.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101110&loop=no

[northjaxpro]

Yes, it has been steadily increasing all day long. This correlates well with what is happening in the Bahamas currently. There is a well defined vort on satellite imagery a short time ago near Abaco Island.

[ronjon]

Be interesting if convection builds tonight over the gulf stream and this organizes. Its jugging west now. Euro takes if through the peninsula, GEM moves it across SFL into SE GOM, and GFS wants to run it north along the east coast.

[Hurricaneman]

Starting to show up on MIA long range RAD.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101110&loop=no

Looks to be developing on this radar view

[northjaxpro]

The system looks good tonight. Should be labeled an invest.

It also will not take much at all, given the good upper level environment the system has currently going for it, to spin up.into a decent tropical cyclone!

[northjaxpro]

Be interesting if convection builds tonight over the gulf stream and this organizes. Its jugging west now. Euro takes if through the peninsula, GEM moves it across SFL into SE GOM, and GFS wants to run it north along the east coast.

[northjaxpro]

Be interesting if convection builds tonight over the gulf stream and this organizes. Its jugging west now. Euro takes if through the peninsula, GEM moves it across SFL into SE GOM, and GFS wants to run it north along the east coast.

I like the EURO's handling of this system from the beginning. I wrote a post about this a page or so ago on this thread.

[gatorcane]

Water temps are beyond warm:

[NDG]

Convection increasing tonight.

[northjaxpro]

Starting to show up on MIA long range RAD.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101110&loop=no

Looping the long range MIA radar, it appears that the VORT is moving slightly south of due west., now moving in between the Biminis and Grand Bahama Island. This motion if it continues, would head toward the Florida Straits. Convection is actually building on the south/southeast of the circulation. Looking good! Also moving over the Gulf Stream current now. Watch this very carefully!

[Hammy]

i was going to say that if this is going to become a TD near FL, it will likely do so within 24-48 hours per model track timing consensus.

Yeah Larry I would say 12-24 hours at the level of organization this disturbance is showing this evening. Good conditions right now over the Bahamas. Virtually little or.no shear.

Again sorry for the error everyone. I got a bit ahead of myself obviously lol..

Looks like there's a bit of spin forming, looking similar to 99L a few days ago. NAM is developing it, and GFS has some vorticity as well (but moves it onshore) so it looks like over land vs over water will be the main determinant.

[northjaxpro]

Also another thing of note is look at the influx of moisture being drawn into the circulation from the south and southwest. Radar shows this very good. This is an organizing cyclone tonight folks!! It is coming together very well this evening.

[NDG]

Surface pressures have not been dropping at all and are relatively high, the one thing going against this disturbance.

[chaser1]

Gotta say, this disturbance certainly has taken on a bit of shape in the last few hours. If this has enough going for it, I just dont see the flat S. Peninsula being that much of a hindrance toward a bit more organization. Could this be a Texas concern??? Wouldn't THAT be a bit of a surprise? Question is will shear become its downfall in a day or two? Minus a lot of model support I wouldn't bet the farm on development in the Gulf, but in a year that I think will continue to show a much greater ease of cyclongenesis, I probably wouldn't bet against it either lol.

[LarryWx]

Surface pressures have not been dropping at all and are relatively high, the one thing going against this disturbance.

Good observation. However, for those who may forget, the evening is a normal time of rising pressures due to the diurnal cycle. So, if pressures are pretty steady this evening at any station as opposed to rising, that could still be a sign of either something forming or the lowest pressure getting closer to that station. Pressures don't need to actually fall during the evening for this to be occurring. I assume NDG knows this but some readers may not.

[NDG]

Surface pressures have not been dropping at all and are relatively high, the one thing going against this disturbance.

Good observation. However, for those who may forget, the evening is a normal time of rising pressures due to the diurnal cycle. So, if pressures are pretty steady this evening at any station as opposed to rising, that could still be a sign of either something forming or the lowest pressure getting closer to that station. Pressures don't need to actually fall during the evening for this to be occurring. I assume NDG knows this but some readers may not.

Pressures have to be compared to 24 hrs prior to get a better trend for pressures dropping or rising, in which both Miami and Nassau if anything the pressures are 1 mb & 2 mb, respectively, higher than 24 hrs ago, with Nassau reporting a whopping pressure of 1019 mb.

Edit: It may still not mean anything, small systems don't affect pressures much in the surrounding areas and this could be the case.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A quick spin-up minimal TS prior to landfall is not out of the question based on how it has organized tonight. If it goes through the straits, then there is an even better chance of a quick spin up. I wouldn't bet my life on it but it certainly looks good. I do expect shear to rip apart whatever gets into the GOM, unless the low shear area over the Bahamas can follow it. So I don't go broke, I'll bet a dollar this becomes a quick spin up TS in the next 36 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

The shear currently in the GOM is not too bad and nothing over 25kts so it's not killer to a tropical cyclone but if it increases then it will get sheared to death

[Stormcenter]

Does look like it's trying to get organized.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html