Trough along the SE US Coast

[northjaxpro]

Well, we have a couple of vortices early this morning along the trough axis situated from northeast to southwest through the Bahamas to the Florida Straits. There is a weaker vort between the Bimini and Miami on the southwest end of the trough axis, which we all were tracking last night.

Also, there is a new developing vort seen on RGB satellite imagery and long range Miami. NWS radar near Cat Island and Eleithera. This currently looks to be the stronger of the two vortices at this time.

I would watch the VORT near Eleuthera currently for potential development later today as that VORT is moving w/nw.

Convection is expanding near this area early this morning and shear is low in this region. I still think there is a good window of opportunity for a TD at least to develop from this the next 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

convection on the increase last 90 minutes, has a very long ways to go for a "center", dont think it ever gets there as it will run out of real estate

[NDG]

A weak elongated surface low has formed this morning, close to the SE coast of FL is forecasted to move northward during the day, not much much further development forecasted by the models.

[Blown Away]

A weak elongated surface low has formed this morning, close to the SE coast of FL is forecasted to move northward during the day, not much much further development forecasted by the models.

I agree, I'd only give it like a 10% chance of developing...

[Patrick99]

Last night was really its window of opportunity to do something, IMO. It had a small circulation, shear basically nonexistent, and hot water......just didn't do much. Now it's going to run out of real estate.

[NDG]

Vorticity that looks to be taking over is now east of Vero Beach.

[Patrick99]

I see at least 3 spins on that pic......the one you mentioned east of Vero, one offshore Miami Beach, and another 60-70 miles or so south of the eastern tip of Grand Bahama.

[northjaxpro]

I see at least 3 spins on that pic......the one you mentioned east of Vero, one offshore Miami Beach, and another 60-70 miles or so south of the eastern tip of Grand Bahama.

Yes, 3 vortices. The newest one to form is east of Vero Beach.

Earlier, the vort that moved from Eleuthera Island is now south of Grand Bahama Island. This vort had vigorous convection earlier today, but that has waned a bit for now.

[Stormcenter]

What I'm seeing here on visible sat. is moving west and not north.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[northjaxpro]

What I'm seeing here on visible sat. is moving west and not north.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

I agree. Motion has been steady west with the vortices.

[jlauderdal]

What I'm seeing here on visible sat. is moving west and not north.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

the broad circulation is moving west, the individual "vortices" are moving different directions within the system...development chances down to 2 percent, being generous

[ronjon]

Think the surface low is broad and elongated - or are we seeing something at the surface and somehing separate at the mid-levels? MIA long range RAD shows broad low.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[NDG]

Very clearly the vorticity east of Vero Beach is taking over, with SSW-SW winds reported over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The HRRR did a very good job last night on this happening this morning.

[CFLHurricane]

Convection is starting to build around the COC. Looks to be an active day for our little friend.

[NDG]

Surface reports clearly showing the circulation around the vorticity east of Vero Beach.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah the entity east of Vero Beach has become the primary one.

Now, will it have enough time to develop into a TD at the very least?

[Aric Dunn]

You know there was a time when the definition of a TC weighed more then forecast models for it. I remember a Time when this and 99L ( among othes) would already be TD's

[LarryWx]

Surface reports clearly showing the circulation around the vorticity east of Vero Beach.

If this is the surface vortex, it is a bit east of the model consensus from late yesterday through this morning for the main surface vortex, which was progged by the consensus to be near the coast around Vero or further west over the FL pen. Even today's 0Z Euro had it very close to the coast near Vero. Based on the current position being further east, I'm educatedly guessing that it will remain offshore FL as it pulls NW, then NNW, then N, then NNE as it rotates around the Bermuda high. Let's see what happens. IF it remains offshore, the 18Z NAM from yesterday would oddly enough have been the closest of the runs I monitored.

[NDG]

You know there was a time when the definition of a TC weighed more then forecast models for it. I remember a Time when this and 99L ( among othes) would already be TD's

Buoy east of Cape Canaveral & North of Grand Bahama Island reported a wind gust of 33 knots a few minutes ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/895673253544435712