Trough along the SE US Coast

[Hurricaneman]

Looks interesting, no model support and looks like it's currently in high shear but I think it should be monitored as it could move into lower shear

[northjaxpro]

This area has also been an interest to me. It has been moving steadily w-nw for several days as convection has flared on and off consistently. There is no model support at this time as you mentioned, and no development is anticipated. However, this is worth a mention. The fact that this feature has persisted for days is worth pointing out.

There is a small ULL just north/northeast of Puerto Rico and for the short term, and this is interacting with a tropical wave. Shear would prevent any development of this system for now.

[CFLHurricane]

Looks interesting, no model support and looks like it's currently in high shear but I think it should be monitored as it could move into lower shear

This piqued my interest as well. Never say never during August.

[Steve]

If you look at the last few visibles then day, it's almost the same size and shape of 99l.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Four words........... Shear and dry air.

[tiger_deF]

Looks way better than 99L...

[CFLHurricane]

Still swirling. All these spinning blobs are making me dizzy!

[northjaxpro]

Initially, this area was a tropical wave interacting with a upper level low which was first northeast of PR, but has since filled as it has moved westward since yesterday.

It is an interesting feature in that it will impacted the Bahamas with some showers into tomorrow. The models still have not developed this feature as of yet, but as mentioned, you have to watch anyfeature of interest, especially in this part of the Atlantic basin as history as shown and taught us for sure!

[HURRICANELONNY]

According to the Miami NWS:

The easterly winds return through Sunday
with a more typical weather pattern of easterly flow and sea
breezes, then model guidance remains uncertain regarding an area
of disturbed weather that may develop near the Bahamas. It is
still early to tell if this potential system could have any
impacts over the area early next week.

[gatorcane]

There is a weak area of 850MB vorticity that has developed. Almost started a thread on this area but there just is no model support:

[Bocadude85]

According to the Miami NWS:

The easterly winds return through Sunday
with a more typical weather pattern of easterly flow and sea
breezes, then model guidance remains uncertain regarding an area
of disturbed weather that may develop near the Bahamas. It is
still early to tell if this potential system could have any
impacts over the area early next week.

I think they are referring to 99L. The disturbance being discussed in this thread is already in the SE Bahamas and would not take a week to arrive in S.Fla.

[boca]

I thought the area in the Bahamas was an ULL?

[northjaxpro]

I thought the area in the Bahamas was an ULL?

The area currently in the SE Bahamas is a tropical wave which did interact with a small upper level low since Sunday. The ULL has since moved westward and filled and weakened the past 24 hours.

The models have not yet latched onto development yet. But any system in this area must be watched with interest just in case.

[northjaxpro]

FWIW, the GFS moves this inverted trough axis across South Florida Thursday-Friday, moves it into the SE Gulf and dissipates it. The EURO keeps this entity in tact rather decently as a trackable vort into the Southeast Gulf by Saturday.

The low level ridge axis in place will steer this system across South Florida Friday -Saturday.

[northjaxpro]

Convection has gradually increased during the pre-dawn hours of this morning as the mid level trough is currently moving through the Bahamas. I think the GFS solution of keeping this trough weak and dissipating by Saturday over South Florida will probably not come to fruition.

EURO keeps this trough intact through the remainder of the medium term, with the disturbance shown by EURO to move across South Florida and into the SE GOM by Saturday as the low level ridge axis is forecast to extend over the region until Saturday.

[Patrick99]

I swear when I look at the visible I see *some* low-level turning with this. Not claiming it's going to turn into something substantial over the next 24 hours before it washes ashore in SFL, but it looks like it could be more than just your garden variety t-wave. Hopefully it brings some needed respite from the constant heat and sun at the very least......I'm pretty tired of the bust/boom/bust nature of this year's rainy season down here with weeks of nearly cloud-free SAL punctuated by one-day deluges on either end....that's not how rainy season is supposed to be here.

[marionstorm]

In the last hour there has been an increase in convection east of Cat Island. Will have to see if it sticks around. It is too bad there isn't radar in the Bahamas.

[northjaxpro]

Nice convective burst occurring over the Central Bahamas currently. I am having tech snafu with my computer and can't post the map but latest 850 mb analysis indeed increased in the Bahamas with the trough. Someone can post the 850 analysis for me while I get me computer up and running as opposed to being on my I-Phone.
Thanks!l.p. l

This disturbance is looking better every time I check on it and given its location and what these type of systems have the potential of doing there, I think a bit more attention may be warranted for this disturbance.

[boca]

This system has rotation to it and I'm surprised it's not an invest considering it's just off the coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

Disorganized shower activity over the Bahamas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


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