When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

TheStormExpert · #1 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:47 am

Thought I'd make this thread and if any moderator is ok with it could you please turn it into a poll.

I'm curious to see when others think we will see our 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season? With Franklin looking more likely than not to become our 1st hurricane of the season in the Bay of Campeche now would be a good time to hear your guesses.

I'll go with the 1st third of September around the peak September 10th. It'll likely be Irma or another name further down in my opinion and will form from a tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic just east of the Eastern Caribbean.

otowntiger · #2 Postby **otowntiger** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:19 am

I'd say early to mid September, right at the season's peak. I think this is looking like an average season, so I will go with climo on my guess. No other reasoning on my part since I'm no expert. Just a long time lurker and follower of tropical storms. :wink:

#3 Postby **Steve** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:29 am

2013

:hat-tip:

#4 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:09 am

There will not be one.

#5 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:23 am

Poll created. My vote is first week in September.

CFLHurricane · #6 Postby **CFLHurricane** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:44 am

I think this season will still be more active than average, but back loaded after the peak. Hence I think the best chance will be after September 10th.

CyclonicFury · #7 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:15 am

Guessing during the last few days of August.

#8 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:50 pm

I think August 27-September 2. I don't see anything really coming down the pipe for a fair amount of time, save maybe if 99L develops (and if it does, I don't think it will be very strong). But something tells me things may change in two to three weeks, beyond the timeframe of any model.

-Andrew92

Hammy · #9 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:12 pm

Second half of September. I can see 1-2 forming there and another 1-2 in October.

#10 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:54 pm

Going with Sept 4 to 8th for first major.

CyclonicFury · #11 Postby **CyclonicFury** » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:34 pm

Well, it is August 20th, and the Atlantic still has not seen a major hurricane yet. The average first major hurricane doesn't form until September 4th. No global models are indicating anything that really has a chance to become a major hurricane in the Atlantic in the near future. The expected suppressed phase in September complicates the matter, as Michael Ventrice has gone as far as to say the Atlantic likely won't have a hurricane from September 7-25. So this makes me wonder, when will the Atlantic finally get one? I highly doubt we will go the entire season without one, but there's a chance we may have to wait until late September if the suppressed phase really keeps the Atlantic from producing.

Hurricaneman · #12 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:50 pm

I'm thinking possibly Harvey

#13 Postby **Steve** » Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:51 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I'm thinking possibly Harvey

It's going to make a run. How far north it can get and how long it stays over water is going to be the key. If the CMC is right with the remainder of 92L, and if that stays off shore and runs the coast, it could also be Cat 2/3.

#14 Postby **MGC** » Tue Aug 22, 2017 12:34 pm

All the SAL and ULL need to get out of the way before a major can happen.....MGC

FireRat · #15 Postby **FireRat** » Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:09 am

8/25 possibly thanks to Harvey.

HurricaneRyan · #16 Postby **HurricaneRyan** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:18 am

Looks like I was right!

Hurricaneman · #17 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:59 am

Tomorrow morning to be exact

Hammy · #18 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:26 pm

I've expressed doubts we'd have one a few times earlier this month but held off because of the forecasts with Harvey, but it's looking highly unlikely it'll intensify more so I'll put my no majors prediction in (though I assume I can't change my vote in the poll at this point.)

Edit: Just when I'm certain about things...

#19 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:54 pm

BEST track up to 100kts for Harvey, drought coming to end, unfortunately one that makes landfall in the US.

#20 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:12 pm

Hammy wrote:I've expressed doubts we'd have one a few times earlier this month but held off because of the forecasts with Harvey, but it's looking highly unlikely it'll intensify more so I'll put my no majors prediction in (though I assume I can't change my vote in the poll at this point.)

Edit: Just when I'm certain about things...

Sorry, can't change your vote, so you're good. This never happened.