When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
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- TheStormExpert
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When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Thought I'd make this thread and if any moderator is ok with it could you please turn it into a poll.
I'm curious to see when others think we will see our 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season? With Franklin looking more likely than not to become our 1st hurricane of the season in the Bay of Campeche now would be a good time to hear your guesses.
I'll go with the 1st third of September around the peak September 10th. It'll likely be Irma or another name further down in my opinion and will form from a tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic just east of the Eastern Caribbean.
I'm curious to see when others think we will see our 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season? With Franklin looking more likely than not to become our 1st hurricane of the season in the Bay of Campeche now would be a good time to hear your guesses.
I'll go with the 1st third of September around the peak September 10th. It'll likely be Irma or another name further down in my opinion and will form from a tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic just east of the Eastern Caribbean.
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
I'd say early to mid September, right at the season's peak. I think this is looking like an average season, so I will go with climo on my guess. No other reasoning on my part since I'm no expert. Just a long time lurker and follower of tropical storms.
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
2013
:hat-tip:
:hat-tip:
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
There will not be one.
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Poll created. My vote is first week in September.
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M a r k
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- CFLHurricane
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
I think this season will still be more active than average, but back loaded after the peak. Hence I think the best chance will be after September 10th.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
- CyclonicFury
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Guessing during the last few days of August.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- Andrew92
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
I think August 27-September 2. I don't see anything really coming down the pipe for a fair amount of time, save maybe if 99L develops (and if it does, I don't think it will be very strong). But something tells me things may change in two to three weeks, beyond the timeframe of any model.
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Second half of September. I can see 1-2 forming there and another 1-2 in October.
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Going with Sept 4 to 8th for first major.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Well, it is August 20th, and the Atlantic still has not seen a major hurricane yet. The average first major hurricane doesn't form until September 4th. No global models are indicating anything that really has a chance to become a major hurricane in the Atlantic in the near future. The expected suppressed phase in September complicates the matter, as Michael Ventrice has gone as far as to say the Atlantic likely won't have a hurricane from September 7-25. So this makes me wonder, when will the Atlantic finally get one? I highly doubt we will go the entire season without one, but there's a chance we may have to wait until late September if the suppressed phase really keeps the Atlantic from producing.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
I'm thinking possibly Harvey
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Hurricaneman wrote:I'm thinking possibly Harvey
It's going to make a run. How far north it can get and how long it stays over water is going to be the key. If the CMC is right with the remainder of 92L, and if that stays off shore and runs the coast, it could also be Cat 2/3.
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- MGC
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
All the SAL and ULL need to get out of the way before a major can happen.....MGC
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
8/25 possibly thanks to Harvey.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Looks like I was right!
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
- Hurricaneman
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Tomorrow morning to be exact
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
I've expressed doubts we'd have one a few times earlier this month but held off because of the forecasts with Harvey, but it's looking highly unlikely it'll intensify more so I'll put my no majors prediction in (though I assume I can't change my vote in the poll at this point.)
Edit: Just when I'm certain about things...
Edit: Just when I'm certain about things...
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
BEST track up to 100kts for Harvey, drought coming to end, unfortunately one that makes landfall in the US.
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Re: When will we see the 1st Major Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Hammy wrote:I've expressed doubts we'd have one a few times earlier this month but held off because of the forecasts with Harvey, but it's looking highly unlikely it'll intensify more so I'll put my no majors prediction in (though I assume I can't change my vote in the poll at this point.)
Edit: Just when I'm certain about things...
Sorry, can't change your vote, so you're good. This never happened.
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M a r k
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