Eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave

[Siker]

:uarrow: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.5N 29.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 84 13.5N 29.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.08.2017 96 15.0N 33.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.08.2017 108 16.4N 36.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 20.08.2017 120 17.8N 41.0W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.08.2017 132 19.2N 45.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 21.08.2017 144 20.0N 48.1W 1002 46

That's for the wave still over Africa.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.5N 29.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 84 13.5N 29.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.08.2017 96 15.0N 33.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.08.2017 108 16.4N 36.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 20.08.2017 120 17.8N 41.0W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.08.2017 132 19.2N 45.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 21.08.2017 144 20.0N 48.1W 1002 46

That's for the wave still over Africa.

Moved both posts from the 92L models thread to here.

[Ivanhater]

I think this is the wave the GFS is showing

162 hours

[cycloneye]

Yes Ivanhater.

[cycloneye]

[South Texas Storms]

12z Canadian really blows this system up north of the islands during the middle part of next week.

[Hurricaneman]

Gert may be the strongest to date but I believe this one may be the big one as conditions continue to improve

[gatorcane]

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF.

144 hours is well NE of Leewards as a Tropical Storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z ECMWF.

144 hours is well NE of Leewards as a Tropical Storm.

ECMWF has been showing it going OTS for a few runs in a row now. Probably locked into that. Though it is still a ways away.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of moisture with the wave that will emerge Western Africa on Wednesday.

[hd44]

Gfs is more west with future 93l and intensifies to a major hurricane. However the synoptic pattern with a big amplified ridge in the west screams out to sea to me.

[Hurricaneman]

This will need to be watched in the lesser Antilles first then maybe the east coast of the US as the models are gung ho with this system

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Is a biggie as it emerges the African Coast.

[floridasun78]

Is a biggie as it emerges the African Coast.

other came out big but storm weakling a bit as move into Atlantic

[Cpv17]

They all look good coming off the coast and then the next day they go poof.

[hd44]

Gfs/Ecmwf coming into better agreement should produce a lot of ace. No threat to land as of now.

[galaxy401]

0/30% now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF has a big ACE producer but in open sea.Bermuda has to watch this.