Eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean in about two days. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Wow not even waiting until they get off of Africa.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The GFS showed this one (Jose) into FL and 91L turning into possibly Harvey and Irma. Now the next run will drop everything .

[Hurricaneman]

Quite interesting that this could have a chance to develop closer to Africa

[TheStormExpert]

With the way things have been going I have doubts this develops close to Africa, or even too much before being north or west of the Eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensemble 9 at 18z.

[Kingarabian]

This one might struggle as well because the NASA model is hinting at another SAL outbreak in 7 days. Shows a lot of dust stretched out from 20N-10N and sprawling out all the way to 50W.

[MetroMike]

This one might struggle as well because the NASA model is hinting at another SAL outbreak in 7 days. Shows a lot of dust stretched out from 20N-10N and sprawling out all the way to 50W.

Don't think the SAL should be too much of an issue at the latitude.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be bullish on this, a hurricane over Puerto Rico but the GFS might be over developing this

[WeatherEmperor]

0z Gfs and Canadian have this system over or near the islands in 7-8 days.


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[Kingarabian]

Over/under on when the GFS will drop this?

[WeatherEmperor]

Over/under on when the GFS will drop this?

Omg. Those were my thoughts exactly!


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[Hurricaneman]

Over/under on when the GFS will drop this?

Friday

[Hurricaneman]

I want to see what the Euro does with this

[otowntiger]

Wow not even waiting until they get off of Africa.

It looks like the year for the never ending invests that amount to nothing. Thank you Mr. SAL, ULL, Shear, dry air Mr Trough! Y'all are doing a great job keeping us safe!

[Hammy]

Wow not even waiting until they get off of Africa.

It looks like the year for the never ending invests that amount to nothing. Thank you Mr. SAL, ULL, Shear, dry air Mr Trough! Y'all are doing a great job keeping us safe!

Interestingly (excluding 91L whose fate is undetermined) we've had 11 invests this year, and all but three developed--and one of those non-developers was in March.

[otowntiger]

With the way things have been going I have doubts this develops close to Africa, or even too much before being north or west of the Eastern Caribbean.

or any time at all. But if it does it will likely get swept it by a trough.

[cycloneye]

I want to see what the Euro does with this

A strong Hurricane recurving just east of Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:



A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[tropicwatch]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.5N 29.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2017 84 13.5N 29.6W 1008 27
0000UTC 19.08.2017 96 15.0N 33.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 19.08.2017 108 16.4N 36.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 20.08.2017 120 17.8N 41.0W 1005 39
1200UTC 20.08.2017 132 19.2N 45.0W 1003 46
0000UTC 21.08.2017 144 20.0N 48.1W 1002 46

Sorry wrong system, believe this will be future 93L