Eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave

[hd44]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

No, it's not a deal breaker. Climo peak doesn't start till September.

Yes however the great Michael Ventrice who has been spot , doesn't expect much for the first 3 weeks of September.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[RL3AO]

Yes however the great Michael Ventrice who has been spot , doesn't expect much for the first 3 weeks of September.

But even a below average September can be somewhat active.

[Alyono]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

No, it's not a deal breaker. Climo peak doesn't start till September.

Yes however the great Michael Ventrice who has been spot , doesn't expect much for the first 3 weeks of September.

he has not been spot on. He's been calling for an active tropical Atlantic. Instead, we've seen hurricanes in the BOC and subtropics

Also, the planetary waves have little influence in the subtropics. if the tropical Atlantic is quiet (as it has been so far in August), that does not mean the higher latitudes will be quiet

[gatorcane]

Even the ECMWF is backing off on this wave some though 96 hours...wow. Just when you thought shoe-in development, models do a 180 on the next run (almost).

[cycloneye]

Euro develops outside the MDR.

[wxmann_91]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

No, it's not a deal breaker. Climo peak doesn't start till September.

Yes however the great Michael Ventrice who has been spot , doesn't expect much for the first 3 weeks of September.

Sept was pretty dead last year too, and then Matthew happened. I'm leaning towards an inactive season but one single wave is not a deal breaker in that regards.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 mb low is off the coast of W Africa near 10N19W embedded in
the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is E of this low, still inland
over W Africa along 15W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave in a
very moist area based on SSMI TPW imagery and has a well
pronounced 700 mb trough. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
radius of the low.

[OuterBanker]

A not to all the naysayers out there. Gert which will be the strongest hurricane so far this season never looked as good as 91 l 92 l or 93 l. In fact most (myself included) pretty much had written it off. I will now hold off judgement until it gets into the west Atlantic. It seems to me none of the models really has a handle on this season. Wondering if all the new upgrades to all the models are improvements.

[gsheldon]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

[otowntiger]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

so I take it you don't think it will re-curve? It seems like the concensus around here along with many models is that it will stay well clear of the CONUS if not land altogether. I'm curious about your considered opinion here. - thanks!

[junepath]

Curious as to when this might be labeled an Invest? I feel 91 and 92 were declared when the chances for development were still 0/10. Is it because it's barely left the coast of Africa?

(I'm seriously super new, I don't know ANYTHING, so I'm sure this is a stupid question)

[Andrew92]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

so I take it you don't think it will re-curve? It seems like the concensus around here along with many models is that it will stay well clear of the CONUS if not land altogether. I'm curious about your considered opinion here. - thanks!

That is the consensus, but how trustworthy are the models that far out? It seems like they all need to be taken with a grain of salt this year.

Furthermore, that ridge to the north looks pretty solid, at least up to this point. I may easily be missing something, but I am not ready to buy the recurve at this time. Until then, it's definitely worth watching, to say the least.

-Andrew92

[amawea]

Hello everyone, I am a retired meteorologist- was on television/radio and started my career in Miami in the mid 80's. I have noticed that the GFS is not what it use to be and not as reliable. I have a subscription to Weather Bell models which in my professional opinion is a lot better than tropical tidbits. The third wave is the wave I am concerned about. It is still to early to predict where it will end up as there is a lot of shear taking place but it does have potential.

Welcome aboard gsheldon, I look forward to you sharing your knowledge.

[USTropics]

Curious as to when this might be labeled an Invest? I feel 91 and 92 were declared when the chances for development were still 0/10. Is it because it's barely left the coast of Africa?

(I'm seriously super new, I don't know ANYTHING, so I'm sure this is a stupid question)

There's no real rhyme or reason to when the NHC publicly declares an AOI an invest (there have been invests declared while a system was still inland over Africa). Internally, it's already labeled with a GENESIS tag. Usually, you'll see an invest publicly declared when the 5-day TWO shows medium chances of development.

[junepath]

I'd think soon then, as it's sitting at 40% now. Thanks for the info!

[Hurricaneman]

I'd think soon then, as it's sitting at 40% now. Thanks for the info!

IMO this will have to be watched in the 7 to 10 day range to see if this is a recurve out to sea or it follows 92L but it's the NHC that will have to make the choice to invest this or not

[jason1912]

18z navgem:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 618&fh=144

[hd44]

Odds are dropping for significant formation from it. Probably will have a decrease in Ecmwf guidence at 00z.

[hd44]

Gefs stronger with 92l than future 93l if it is even 93l.
Support dropping.