Eastern Caribbean Tropical Wave

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15
mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/897812671579529216




FWIW

[TheStormExpert]

So is this now officially 93L? I'm confused.

[OuterBanker]

Nope, not yet. But, to be. Think it will be today though, watch for invest number on TPC site.

[cycloneye]

At anytime will be 93L.

[OuterBanker]

This is without a doubt the best looking wave this season. Large when it exited, well defined coc around 19 w 11 n. Wow, this could be a real menace.

[Fishing]

Nope, not yet. But, to be. Think it will be today though, watch for invest number on TPC site.

Can you post the link to the TPC Site is possible please!?

[OuterBanker]

Nope, not yet. But, to be. Think it will be today though, watch for invest number on TPC site.

Can you post the link to the TPC Site is possible please!?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[cycloneye]

Another link where anyone can see when a Invest is up is the ATCF site.As of this post,there is no 93 yet on the list.Between 92 and 99 there 93 will appear.Keep refeshing until you see 93.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[OuterBanker]

Another link where anyone can see when a Invest is up is the ATCF site.As of this post,there is no 93 yet on the list.Between 92 and 99 there 93 will appear.Keep refeshing until you see 93.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

To be fair Cyclone, the ftp link is fairly complicated almost like reading recon data. Not so sure this is helpful to a novice.

Fishing, here is an example from the site. Btw, it's Gert data.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal082017.dat

[Fishing]

Another link where anyone can see when a Invest is up is the ATCF site.As of this post,there is no 93 yet on the list.Between 92 and 99 there 93 will appear.Keep refeshing until you see 93.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

To be fair Cyclone, the ftp link is fairly complicated almost like reading recon data. Not so sure this is helpful to a novice.

Fishing, here is an example from the site. Btw, it's Gert data.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal082017.dat

Very true, at one point in my lay persons - tracking career after my obsession grew out of Hugo, I could figure this stuff out. Now at nearly 58 I rely on this board and all of your input to decipher this stuff. Thank you btw! Appreciate the links and if the boards go quiet maybe Ill try to figure out the site Cyclone posted as I knew there was another way to find if a new invest appeared (other than the NHC site), apparently I have lost my focus. haha. Carry on , Ill go back to reading,

[hd44]

Gfs coming in less impressive with mid level humidity. Weaker it can be, more west it gets and the higher risk to Bermuda imo.

[gatorcane]

How does the GFS go from what it is showing in the 06Z to this weak system in the 12Z in just run?

[hd44]

How does the GFS go from what it is showing in the 06Z to this weak system in the 12Z in just run?

No moisiture.

[hd44]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

[GCANE]

GFS has been consistent last few runs in the scenario where 92L takes out 355K PV around the islands opening the way for 93L-to-be to get into the Bahamas,
At that point an ULL will be to its NE making a favorable condition for development.

[hd44]

Cmc moves future 93l more west.

[hd44]

Im thinking a track similar to hurricane Earl (2010) . The weaker this gets, it will keep moving a little west.

[AutoPenalti]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

No, it's not a deal breaker. Climo peak doesn't start till September.

[Bocadude85]

This wave is probably the deal breaker on an active or non active season. Since after this wave may go on a 2 week hiatus on when the next storm forms.

We potentially could see 3 more named storms in the next 7 days...that would put us at potentially 10 named storms by the end of August..that's above climatology...ACE may be on the low side however.