2017 Cyclones Retirement

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Cleveland Kent Evans
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#101 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:33 pm

Torino wrote:
I think they will keep Maria's Spanish ethnicity with the new name. I know they have broken that rule before, but Mindy and Melissa aren't very common in Spanish speaking countries (maybe Melissa a little), and Puerto Rico is among the most affected places.
I see most people saying Harold for Harvey, I think it will be the one.


Well, all around the world names are becoming more varied and what is common in Spanish-speaking countries is changing rapidly.

The most common girls' names starting with "M" for babies born in Puerto Rico in 2016 were, in order of prevalence:

Mia
Mikaela
Mila
Milena
Miranda
Maia
Mariana
(Maria)
Micaela
Marina

That's from the Social Security administration list which counts every spelling as a separate name, which is why both Mikaela and Micaela are included.

The second most common boy's name for newborns in Puerto Rico in 2016 was Dylan, just to show how "untraditional" names now are there.
Here's the link to the Puerto Rico top 100 for 2016:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/terr ... o2016.html
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#102 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:02 am

Miranda would be my top pick out of that list
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#103 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:17 am

Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#104 Postby Torino » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:57 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year


I think Hato will be retired from this season. Doksuri, very unlikely.
Awkward that Japan didn't retire one single name from 2004 season, not even Songda or Tokage.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#105 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:40 am

Torino wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year


I think Hato will be retired from this season. Doksuri, very unlikely.
Awkward that Japan didn't retire one single name from 2004 season, not even Songda or Tokage.

In contrast, we'd seen an unusually high four names retired in 2016.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#106 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:48 pm

There's basically no need for Japan to retire storm names because it uses number when referring to a particular storm (e.g. the 21st typhoon of 2017) instead of name. That would explain why Japan has a poor retirement record.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#107 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:27 pm

NotoSans wrote:There's basically no need for Japan to retire storm names because it uses number when referring to a particular storm (e.g. the 21st typhoon of 2017) instead of name. That would explain why Japan has a poor retirement record.

I think they were able to retire Mireille in 1991.... or was it by another country?? Can happen too, more and more names are retired every year.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#108 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:22 pm

Some things we know - and don't know - is who will make the retirement cases.

Harvey would be definitely a United States retirement, as it didn't severely affect any other countries.

Irma could be done by any of Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, British Caribbean Territories, Cuba, Dominican Republic, France, Netherlands and/or the United States. ALL of them have reasonable retirement cases for their countries.

Maria would most likely be a United States retirement case, but Dominica also has an extremely strong case, and the Dominican Republic and France may have modest cases as well.

As for the bubble names, Nate would most likely be from Costa Rica or Nicaragua, although I don't see it being worthy of retirement. Ophelia is mentioned by some, but lacks a voice on the committee (the key case against retirement).
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#109 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:46 am

Harvey, Irma and Maria----most likely Harold/Harry, Ivy/Imogene and Megan/Miranda
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#110 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:47 pm

1 billion in damage from Ophelia. That's pretty crazy.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#111 Postby Torino » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:56 am

Reading past reports, I found that Costa Rica also asked for Tomas' retirement in 2011 (together with St. Lucia and Curaçao). Perhaps because it's a Spanish name, and they wanted to replace it...?!
This shows how any member country can request the retirement, not only the ones affected by the storm. I read that in one of the reports too, I think 2011's.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#112 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:06 am

Considering Damrey too. Caused so much devastation in Vietnam

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/death ... 66997.html
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#113 Postby Torino » Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:21 pm

November update (my thought about retirement):
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Lee, Philippe, Rina - 0%
Ophelia - 5%
Nate - 40%
Harvey, Irma, Maria - 100%
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#114 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:48 pm

From what I have heard, it is a foregone conclusion now that (at least) Harvey, Irma and Maria will be retired, as the NHC is preparing cases for them (and that may be joined by other countries).

Nate is probably the next most likely, but that won't come from the US.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#115 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:31 pm

Torino wrote:November update (my thought about retirement):
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Lee, Philippe, Rina - 0%
Ophelia - 5%
Nate - 40%
Harvey, Irma, Maria - 100%


Well we have the top 2 costliest storms in history with Harvey at nearly 200 billion and Maria at 108 billion not to mention number 4 with Irma at 67 billion so this was an epic season that may never be match or may not be matched for a very long time

Ps: I believe that Jose was a 5 at one point
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#116 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:33 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:1 billion in damage from Ophelia. That's pretty crazy.

That’s pretty crazy but nothing compared to Harvey at 200 billion
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#117 Postby Imran_doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:42 pm

For the WPac, I'd say that the names (JMA names) that have the most potential to get retired are:

Nanmadol
Hato
Doksuri
Lan
Damrey
Tembin
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#118 Postby Torino » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:09 pm

Well...Harvey, Irma and Maria are going to be retired for sure. Nate is a 50/50 case. I don't think Ophelia will be retired.
My suggestions for replacement names are:

Harvey: Harold, Hank, Herbert;
Irma: Ilene, Ivy, Iva;
Maria: Monica, Miranda, Magda;
Nate (if retired): Nelson, Neil, Noah.

I wouldn't retire Nate. I don't think it has historical significance for that, but I'm not the one who decides.
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