2017 Cyclones Retirement: New names are: Harold / Idalia / Margot / Nigel

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Cleveland Kent Evans
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 228
Joined: Fri May 02, 2008 4:02 pm

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#101 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:33 pm

Torino wrote:
I think they will keep Maria's Spanish ethnicity with the new name. I know they have broken that rule before, but Mindy and Melissa aren't very common in Spanish speaking countries (maybe Melissa a little), and Puerto Rico is among the most affected places.
I see most people saying Harold for Harvey, I think it will be the one.


Well, all around the world names are becoming more varied and what is common in Spanish-speaking countries is changing rapidly.

The most common girls' names starting with "M" for babies born in Puerto Rico in 2016 were, in order of prevalence:

Mia
Mikaela
Mila
Milena
Miranda
Maia
Mariana
(Maria)
Micaela
Marina

That's from the Social Security administration list which counts every spelling as a separate name, which is why both Mikaela and Micaela are included.

The second most common boy's name for newborns in Puerto Rico in 2016 was Dylan, just to show how "untraditional" names now are there.
Here's the link to the Puerto Rico top 100 for 2016:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/terr ... o2016.html
0 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 712
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#102 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:02 am

Miranda would be my top pick out of that list
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#103 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:17 am

Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

Torino
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#104 Postby Torino » Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:57 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year


I think Hato will be retired from this season. Doksuri, very unlikely.
Awkward that Japan didn't retire one single name from 2004 season, not even Songda or Tokage.
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#105 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:40 am

Torino wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Lan may be retired if it would end up devastating, but Japan has a poor retirement record for even the costliest of typhoons. We've seen that change for China/Philippines last year


I think Hato will be retired from this season. Doksuri, very unlikely.
Awkward that Japan didn't retire one single name from 2004 season, not even Songda or Tokage.

In contrast, we'd seen an unusually high four names retired in 2016.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#106 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:48 pm

There's basically no need for Japan to retire storm names because it uses number when referring to a particular storm (e.g. the 21st typhoon of 2017) instead of name. That would explain why Japan has a poor retirement record.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#107 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:27 pm

NotoSans wrote:There's basically no need for Japan to retire storm names because it uses number when referring to a particular storm (e.g. the 21st typhoon of 2017) instead of name. That would explain why Japan has a poor retirement record.

I think they were able to retire Mireille in 1991.... or was it by another country?? Can happen too, more and more names are retired every year.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#108 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 1:22 pm

Some things we know - and don't know - is who will make the retirement cases.

Harvey would be definitely a United States retirement, as it didn't severely affect any other countries.

Irma could be done by any of Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, British Caribbean Territories, Cuba, Dominican Republic, France, Netherlands and/or the United States. ALL of them have reasonable retirement cases for their countries.

Maria would most likely be a United States retirement case, but Dominica also has an extremely strong case, and the Dominican Republic and France may have modest cases as well.

As for the bubble names, Nate would most likely be from Costa Rica or Nicaragua, although I don't see it being worthy of retirement. Ophelia is mentioned by some, but lacks a voice on the committee (the key case against retirement).
0 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#109 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 23, 2017 6:46 am

Harvey, Irma and Maria----most likely Harold/Harry, Ivy/Imogene and Megan/Miranda
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 712
Age: 30
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#110 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:47 pm

1 billion in damage from Ophelia. That's pretty crazy.
0 likes   
Kay '22 Hilary '23

Torino
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#111 Postby Torino » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:56 am

Reading past reports, I found that Costa Rica also asked for Tomas' retirement in 2011 (together with St. Lucia and Curaçao). Perhaps because it's a Spanish name, and they wanted to replace it...?!
This shows how any member country can request the retirement, not only the ones affected by the storm. I read that in one of the reports too, I think 2011's.
1 likes   

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3688
Age: 22
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#112 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:06 am

Considering Damrey too. Caused so much devastation in Vietnam

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/death ... 66997.html
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

Torino
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#113 Postby Torino » Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:21 pm

November update (my thought about retirement):
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Lee, Philippe, Rina - 0%
Ophelia - 5%
Nate - 40%
Harvey, Irma, Maria - 100%
1 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#114 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:48 pm

From what I have heard, it is a foregone conclusion now that (at least) Harvey, Irma and Maria will be retired, as the NHC is preparing cases for them (and that may be joined by other countries).

Nate is probably the next most likely, but that won't come from the US.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#115 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:31 pm

Torino wrote:November update (my thought about retirement):
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Lee, Philippe, Rina - 0%
Ophelia - 5%
Nate - 40%
Harvey, Irma, Maria - 100%


Well we have the top 2 costliest storms in history with Harvey at nearly 200 billion and Maria at 108 billion not to mention number 4 with Irma at 67 billion so this was an epic season that may never be match or may not be matched for a very long time

Ps: I believe that Jose was a 5 at one point
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7280
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#116 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:33 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:1 billion in damage from Ophelia. That's pretty crazy.

That’s pretty crazy but nothing compared to Harvey at 200 billion
0 likes   

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#117 Postby doomhaMwx » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:42 pm

For the WPac, I'd say that the names (JMA names) that have the most potential to get retired are:

Nanmadol
Hato
Doksuri
Lan
Damrey
Tembin
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

Torino
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#118 Postby Torino » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:09 pm

Well...Harvey, Irma and Maria are going to be retired for sure. Nate is a 50/50 case. I don't think Ophelia will be retired.
My suggestions for replacement names are:

Harvey: Harold, Hank, Herbert;
Irma: Ilene, Ivy, Iva;
Maria: Monica, Miranda, Magda;
Nate (if retired): Nelson, Neil, Noah.

I wouldn't retire Nate. I don't think it has historical significance for that, but I'm not the one who decides.
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#119 Postby NotoSans » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:01 am

As a side note, the Philippines requested to retire Kai-tak and Tembin from the WPAC name list.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#120 Postby NotoSans » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:36 pm

China has requested to retire HATO from the WPAC name list as well. The annual typhoon committee session will be held at the end of February and we’ll see if Vitenam decided to say goodbye to DOKSURI and DAMREY as well.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25, pepecool20, SFLcane and 68 guests