2017 Cyclones Retirement: New names are: Harold / Idalia / Margot / Nigel

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SuperMarioBros99thx
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#61 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:33 pm

Okay guys. You had to know something that Jose, even it's pretty likely not retired, let me tell you: Emotional anxieties from citizens of Barbuda and others might make Antiguan government request this name to be retired. This is unlike Earl 2010 and Edouard 1996, while close the anxieties are far more less than in this one, sadly.
Here's the replacement names for Jose (Male J names): Jonas, Jonathan, James, Jake, Jack, Jacob, Joseph, Joshua, Jeremiah, Jesse, Jésus, Jeremy, Justin, Jason, Jeffrey, Jamie... Which one you will choose? Anyways, thank you for understanding. :)

FOR ASIA, i personally believe that Doksuri might retired along with Hato. But i have rarely seen that Vietnam ever requested for retirement, so chances are pretty small but it still could be.
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I am an Indonesian who likes TC's alot recently. May i join in the discussion? Also i am big FAN of FORCE THIRTEEN! :D

But thanks to it please beware of my judgement if i am crusading these names to retirement (Like Harvey, Haitang, etc.). That could be incredibly offensive and please remove my posts if it's offensive as i said before. Ugh... :double:

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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#62 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:27 am

I'm going for Harry, Ivy and Megan to replace Harvey, Irma and Maria. Hank, Imogen/Imogene, Ilene and Monica may be the plausible replacements as well.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:07 pm

Storm by storm (through November 1), here is what I think:

Tropical Storm Arlene

Case FOR retirement: None at all, despite 11 attempts
Case AGAINST retirement: Stayed far from land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Bret

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak storm, not much land impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Cindy

Case FOR retirement: Some land impacts
Case AGAINST retirement: Weak storm, relatively low impact overall
My probability of retirement: 3%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Don

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any (yeah, I know the political factor, but that may not be an issue in 2023)
Case AGAINST retirement: No real land impacts
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Emily

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any (if not retired after 1987, 1993 or 2005, definitely not now)
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak storm, minimal land impacts
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Franklin

Case FOR retirement: Hurricane impact in central Mexico with some damage
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not too significant; no fatalities
My probability of retirement: 5%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Gert

Case FOR retirement: Not at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Major Hurricane Harvey

Case FOR retirement: Catastrophic impacts from wind and flooding; deadly storm and top 5 costliest
Case AGAINST retirement: None at all
My probability of retirement: 100%
Verdict: :Can:

Major Hurricane Irma

Case FOR retirement: See Harvey, except in the Caribbean and Florida with multiple countries having retirement cases and extremely intense
Case AGAINST retirement: None at all
My probability of retirement: 100%
Verdict: :Can:

Major Hurricane Jose

Case FOR retirement: Very intense storm, sent fear into the Caribbean and remembered by them
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall impact minimal
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict: :Door:

Hurricane Katia

Case FOR retirement: Hurricane impact in southern Mexico; damage noted
Case AGAINST retirement: Overshadowed by other storms; similar to Franklin with modest impact
My probability of retirement: 10%
Verdict: :Door:

Major Hurricane Lee

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Remained far from land, despite its high intensity
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:

Major Hurricane Maria

Case FOR retirement: See Harvey and Irma, except even more intense
Case AGAINST retirement: None at all
My probability of retirement: 100%
Verdict: :Can:

Hurricane Nate

Case FOR retirement: Severe impact from flooding in Central America; locally significant US damage
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak storm until reaching Gulf; no US deaths and damage not extreme there
My probability of retirement: 35%
Verdict: :Door:

Major Hurricane Ophelia

Case FOR retirement: Significant impact in the British Isles; unprecedented storm for the NE Atlantic
Case AGAINST retirement: Ireland not on committee and UK is primarily on for Bermuda; little impact elsewhere
My probability of retirement: 15%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Philippe

Case FOR retirement: Not much of any
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak storm; not much land impact
My probability of retirement: 2%
Verdict: :Door:

Tropical Storm Rina

Case FOR retirement: None at all
Case AGAINST retirement: Stayed far from land
My probability of retirement: 0%
Verdict: :Door:
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:05 pm, edited 10 times in total.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#64 Postby Torino » Sat Sep 30, 2017 6:37 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Storm by storm (through September), here is what I think:


This is probably the first time since 2005 that we have had three or more OBVIOUS retirement candidates (there are often a few that are uncertain at the whims of the countries affected - not this year).


Yep!
I've been tracking the hurricane seasons since 2004. Here are the names I was 100% sure they would be retired:
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2008: Gustav, Ike
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy
2016: Matthew, Otto
2017: presumably Harvey, Irma, Maria
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#65 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:14 pm

Torino wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Storm by storm (through September), here is what I think:


This is probably the first time since 2005 that we have had three or more OBVIOUS retirement candidates (there are often a few that are uncertain at the whims of the countries affected - not this year).


Yep!
I've been tracking the hurricane seasons since 2004. Here are the names I was 100% sure they would be retired:
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2008: Gustav, Ike
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy
2016: Matthew, Otto
2017: presumably Harvey, Irma, Maria

You forgot Dennis in 2005
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#66 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:24 pm

They could bring names like Ione and Inez back. Even Iris is eligible to return. Retirement merely means the storm cannot be used for 10 years (Irene could return in 2022 technically as well)
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#67 Postby J_J99 » Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:42 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
Torino wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Storm by storm (through September), here is what I think:


This is probably the first time since 2005 that we have had three or more OBVIOUS retirement candidates (there are often a few that are uncertain at the whims of the countries affected - not this year).


Yep!
I've been tracking the hurricane seasons since 2004. Here are the names I was 100% sure they would be retired:
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005: Katrina, Rita, Wilma
2008: Gustav, Ike
2011: Irene
2012: Sandy
2016: Matthew, Otto
2017: presumably Harvey, Irma, Maria

You forgot Dennis in 2005


That storm is the oftentimes forgotten hurricane even though it was a MH at landfall in Florida. Eyewall collapse at landfall certainly helped, could have been a lot worse.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#68 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:07 am

Alyono wrote:They could bring names like Ione and Inez back. Even Iris is eligible to return. Retirement merely means the storm cannot be used for 10 years (Irene could return in 2022 technically as well)

They should make a new policy (due to the increasing rarity of names) to make two different types of retirement: temporary (for 10 years) and permanent (indefinite). IMO, while Katrina could return to replace Katia, Karen or Kate for example, it would be somewhat inappropriate given the deaths and devastation left by the hurricane.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#69 Postby Torino » Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:49 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
Alyono wrote:They could bring names like Ione and Inez back. Even Iris is eligible to return. Retirement merely means the storm cannot be used for 10 years (Irene could return in 2022 technically as well)

They should make a new policy (due to the increasing rarity of names) to make two different types of retirement: temporary (for 10 years) and permanent (indefinite). IMO, while Katrina could return to replace Katia, Karen or Kate for example, it would be somewhat inappropriate given the deaths and devastation left by the hurricane.


I think names retired should remain retired. We still have quite a lot of "I" names, and if we run out of them, we can pick names from other languages besides English, French and Spanish. Just don't pick something sensitive (like Israel) or that sounds ridiculous (like Fefa).
Using a name like Katrina again is very inappropriate for the US. However, isn't Iris inappropriate for Belize as well? Or Erika for Dominica? Or Felix for Nicaragua?
Of course, that is just my opinion.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#70 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:51 am

Alyono wrote:They could bring names like Ione and Inez back. Even Iris is eligible to return. Retirement merely means the storm cannot be used for 10 years (Irene could return in 2022 technically as well)


Merely sure, but I'm pretty sure it's been known since the birth of Gwen Stefani that the method now is to permanently retire names, and that's because of the re-uses of Carol and Edna in the 1960s.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#71 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:46 am

Nate has already killed 22 people in central America. Borderline but if that number goes up and it has an damaging impact on the United states it could join Irma, Harvey and maria.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#72 Postby Cdf » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:18 am

If Nate causes enough damage in Louisiana it probably will be retired or maybe not like Isaac in 2012,

Names available to replace Nate

Neil
Nick
Nelson
Noah
Nathaniel
Nigel
Neville
Nardo
Nacho
Naveen
Nolan
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:27 am

Cdf wrote:If Nate causes enough damage in Louisiana it probably will be retired or maybe not like Isaac in 2012,

Names available to replace Nate

Neil
Nick
Nelson
Noah
Nathaniel
Nigel
Neville
Nardo
Nacho
Naveen
Nolan

Nate is just short for Nathan or Nathaniel. My top 3 are Neil, Nigel and Noah. It will be retired. Being stronger than Isaac 2012 is inevitable, especially if RI occurs
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#74 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:08 pm

Harvey, Irma, and Maria all deserve to be retired. No debate there from me.

But I am not at all convinced, for now, that Nate will get the boot. I am aware of what it has done in Central America, but I am also pretty sure there have been worse, deadlier storms that didn't get retired in that part of the world. One that comes to mind is Edith, a powerful hurricane that hit there in 1971.

Also, I am not downplaying this as any hurricane is a big deal and everyone should be ready for the worst. But Nate is moving very fast as a Category 1 storm, though will probably hit as a 2. Rainfall seems unlikely to be a very severe issue with this given its speed. Storm surge will be a problem, and the winds perhaps as well. However, I am confident and hopeful that the people there will be hunkered down as much as possible. If damage isn't too bad, I don't think Nate will be gone. But let's see what happens first before saying for sure. New Orleans being under the gun potentially is a wrinkle that could increase damage quite a bit if it hits there directly.

Stay safe and prepared, all of you in Nate's path!

-Andrew92
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#75 Postby Torino » Sat Oct 07, 2017 2:27 pm

Cdf wrote:If Nate causes enough damage in Louisiana it probably will be retired or maybe not like Isaac in 2012,

Names available to replace Nate

Neil
Nick
Nelson
Noah
Nathaniel
Nigel
Neville
Nardo
Nacho
Naveen
Nolan


Also Norton, Norris, Nero, Nile, Niall, Ned, Neddy, Nash.

I pick Noah, Neil or Nelson. We still need to see the impact in the US though, hopefully it won't be big enough for the case.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#76 Postby Cdf » Sat Oct 07, 2017 3:22 pm

Possible names for Harvey

Hank
Harry
Harold
Herbert
Hamish
Hunter
Heath
Horacio
Hans

Possible names for Irma

Ilona
Ilsa
Isbell
Ilse
Ivonne
Irina
Inga
Imogene
Ivy
Indira

Possible names for Maria

Marge
Margot
Maggie
Megan
Mariana
Monica
Marissa
Matilda
Mylene
Marinette
Mireille
Megan
Miranda
Mabel
Molly
Melody
Mia
Melanie
Meredith
Martha
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:08 pm

At this point I'm not seeing Nate being bad enough in the US for retirement - now Central America maybe? One for the whims of the nations affected.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#78 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:43 pm

Nate still could be retired on the tornadoes alone, some of those are large and destructive
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#79 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:At this point I'm not seeing Nate being bad enough in the US for retirement - now Central America maybe? One for the whims of the nations affected.

Even if Isaac wasn't retired, Nate may be more likely than not to be retired. Tornadoes, landslides and not to mention surge...
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#80 Postby Torino » Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:53 pm

Well, if Wikipedia is correct, damage is > $ 2.5B, which would make Nate a case for possible retirement. I'm still a bit skeptical about it, but Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US could request it.
I'm giving 45% chance to Nate, the same I gave to Isaac and Ingrid, the last ended up being retired.
Then we have:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Katia, Lee, and probably Ophelia: 0%;
Don: 1% (political stuff, we should also retire Enrique from EPAC lists then);
Jose: 5%;
Nate: 45%;
Harvey, Irma, Maria: 100%.
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