2017 Cyclones Retirement: New names are: Harold / Idalia / Margot / Nigel

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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#81 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:06 pm

Cdf wrote:Possible names for Harvey

Hank
Harry
Harold
Herbert
Hamish
Hunter
Heath
Horacio
Hans

Possible names for Irma

Ilona
Ilsa
Isbell
Ilse
Ivonne
Irina
Inga
Imogene
Ivy
Indira

Possible names for Maria

Marge
Margot
Maggie
Megan
Mariana
Monica
Marissa
Matilda
Mylene
Marinette
Mireille
Megan
Miranda
Mabel
Molly
Melody
Mia
Melanie
Meredith
Martha


Hehe I doubt they'd use the name Hunter. How funny and confusing that'd be if they were like "Hurricane Hunters en route to Hunter" or even just the titles "Tropical Storm / Hurricane Hunter"! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#82 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:58 pm

Torino wrote:Well, if Wikipedia is correct, damage is > $ 2.5B, which would make Nate a case for possible retirement. I'm still a bit skeptical about it, but Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US could request it.
I'm giving 45% chance to Nate, the same I gave to Isaac and Ingrid, the last ended up being retired.
Then we have:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Katia, Lee, and probably Ophelia: 0%;
Don: 1% (political stuff, we should also retire Enrique from EPAC lists then);
Jose: 5%;
Nate: 45%;
Harvey, Irma, Maria: 100%.


I doubt the final US damage for Nate will be anywhere near $2.5B - maybe $250M to $500M which is not really worthy of retirement for a US storm (generally, you need to get well into the billions) especially with 0 fatalities. I'd think Costa Rica or Nicaragua would be most likely to make such a case.

I'd think the US would retire Harvey, Irma and Maria though. But other countries have a case for the latter two at least: Irma could easily be retired by Antigua and Barbuda, France, the UK (British Caribbean Territories), the Netherlands, the Bahamas or Cuba; Maria could easily be retired by France or Dominica as well.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#83 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:53 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Torino wrote:Well, if Wikipedia is correct, damage is > $ 2.5B, which would make Nate a case for possible retirement. I'm still a bit skeptical about it, but Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US could request it.
I'm giving 45% chance to Nate, the same I gave to Isaac and Ingrid, the last ended up being retired.
Then we have:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Katia, Lee, and probably Ophelia: 0%;
Don: 1% (political stuff, we should also retire Enrique from EPAC lists then);
Jose: 5%;
Nate: 45%;
Harvey, Irma, Maria: 100%.


I doubt the final US damage for Nate will be anywhere near $2.5B - maybe $250M to $500M which is not really worthy of retirement for a US storm (generally, you need to get well into the billions) especially with 0 fatalities. I'd think Costa Rica or Nicaragua would be most likely to make such a case.

I'd think the US would retire Harvey, Irma and Maria though. But other countries have a case for the latter two at least: Irma could easily be retired by Antigua and Barbuda, France, the UK (British Caribbean Territories), the Netherlands, the Bahamas or Cuba; Maria could easily be retired by France or Dominica as well.

Isaac had over $2 billion in damages and wasn't retired, but Nate's different. Its impacts over Central America were significant as a result of flash floods and landslides. But who knows, it's up to the member states to decide for retirement.

Here's an update on the situation in Central America.

https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Nicaragua-Death-Toll-Rises-and-Costa-Rica-in-Crisis-After-Tropical-Storm-Nate-20171007-0020.html
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#84 Postby Torino » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:56 am

Torino wrote:Well, if Wikipedia is correct, damage is > $ 2.5B, which would make Nate a case for possible retirement. I'm still a bit skeptical about it, but Costa Rica, Nicaragua and the US could request it.
I'm giving 45% chance to Nate, the same I gave to Isaac and Ingrid, the last ended up being retired.
Then we have:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Katia, Lee, and probably Ophelia: 0%;
Don: 1% (political stuff, we should also retire Enrique from EPAC lists then);
Jose: 5%;
Nate: 45%;
Harvey, Irma, Maria: 100%.


Ok, they upgraded the numbers from Costa Rica, now I do believe Nate will be retired. I'd say 70-80% chance.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#85 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:53 am

Nate is gone. The impact in Central America was worse than with Otto.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#86 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:09 pm

If this article is legit, Nate will likely be retired also due to the fact that it will cost half a billion in Central America alone.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/10/07/hurri ... ulf-coast/
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#87 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:12 pm

Ryxn wrote:If this article is legit, Nate will likely be retired also due to the fact that it will cost half a billion in Central America alone.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/10/07/hurri ... ulf-coast/


Otto was retired likely because it was one of the few canes to hit Costa Rica. Nate's impact on Central America is about the same as was Gert's back in 1993. No retirement then, and likely none now. We cannot be retiring every name that causes a few hundred million in damage or kills a few dozen
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#88 Postby Ryxn » Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:19 pm

Alyono wrote:
Ryxn wrote:If this article is legit, Nate will likely be retired also due to the fact that it will cost half a billion in Central America alone.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/10/07/hurri ... ulf-coast/


Otto was retired likely because it was one of the few canes to hit Costa Rica. Nate's impact on Central America is about the same as was Gert's back in 1993. No retirement then, and likely none now. We cannot be retiring every name that causes a few hundred million in damage or kills a few dozen


Wow didn't know about Otto's case. Thanks for the clarity. Now I agree, don't think it quite stacks up.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#89 Postby Buck » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:01 am

Ryxn wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Ryxn wrote:If this article is legit, Nate will likely be retired also due to the fact that it will cost half a billion in Central America alone.

http://dailycaller.com/2017/10/07/hurri ... ulf-coast/


Otto was retired likely because it was one of the few canes to hit Costa Rica. Nate's impact on Central America is about the same as was Gert's back in 1993. No retirement then, and likely none now. We cannot be retiring every name that causes a few hundred million in damage or kills a few dozen


Wow didn't know about Otto's case. Thanks for the clarity. Now I agree, don't think it quite stacks up.


Agreed re: Otto. However, it is really up to the perception of individual countries. Costa Rica and Panama rarely get directly impacted, so Otto was a landmark storm in that regard, but also killed quite a few people and caused some damage in the area. Nate is responsible for the deaths of more people in Costa Rica, nearly as many in Panama, much more in Nicaragua and others in other Central American countries. So if those countries perceive Nate as they did Otto, they will request retirement. I suspect they will.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#90 Postby Torino » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:24 am

Buck wrote:
Ryxn wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Otto was retired likely because it was one of the few canes to hit Costa Rica. Nate's impact on Central America is about the same as was Gert's back in 1993. No retirement then, and likely none now. We cannot be retiring every name that causes a few hundred million in damage or kills a few dozen


Wow didn't know about Otto's case. Thanks for the clarity. Now I agree, don't think it quite stacks up.


Agreed re: Otto. However, it is really up to the perception of individual countries. Costa Rica and Panama rarely get directly impacted, so Otto was a landmark storm in that regard, but also killed quite a few people and caused some damage in the area. Nate is responsible for the deaths of more people in Costa Rica, nearly as many in Panama, much more in Nicaragua and others in other Central American countries. So if those countries perceive Nate as they did Otto, they will request retirement. I suspect they will.


Otto was also a category 3 hurricane, and they seem to be more conservative about retiring storms that didn't reach major status (not only at the landfall).
Apparently, Costa Rica retired Alma (2008), but there's also the new proposal from BCT about retirement of TS and Cat 1 storms, and Nate didn't directly hit Costa Rica. That's a similar case to Erika, which led those islands to complain.
I think Nate will be retired, but it's not close to be a sure thing.

Here are the TS and Cat 1 storms retired:
Agnes 1972 (US);
Klaus 1990 (France);
Ismael 1995 (Mexico);
Cesar 1996 (Costa Rica);
Allison 2001 (US);
Stan 2005 (Mexico, Central America);
Noel 2007 (France, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba);
Alma 2008 (Costa Rica, Nicaragua);
Ingrid and Manuel 2013 (Mexico);
Erika 2015 (Dominica).
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#91 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:02 pm

the idea that you cannot retire a TS or a cat 1 should be submitted on form ID.10T

To say you should not retire Stan is beyond laughable
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#92 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:39 am

The five top replacements (with possible variants) for each storm, IMO

Harvey
Harold/Harry, Hubert/Herbert, Hans, Hank and Harris/Harrison

Irma
Ilene, Imogen/Imogene, Ivy, Ira, Izzy

Maria
Megan, Marcia, Mercedes, Marta, Melinda
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#93 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 7:02 pm

Some mentioned retiring Ophelia - the problem with that is that Ireland is not on RA IV, and the UK is but for the Caribbean territories (I believe).
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#94 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Some mentioned retiring Ophelia - the problem with that is that Ireland is not on RA IV, and the UK is but for the Caribbean territories (I believe).


Oh come on. IF Ophelia were to cause big damage in Ireland, and IF the Irish government were to request its retirement, do you really think the people on that committee would be rude enough not to retire it just because there is not an official representative from Ireland on the committee? That would be just incredibly nasty and stupid of them.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#95 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:06 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The five top replacements (with possible variants) for each storm, IMO

Harvey
Harold/Harry, Hubert/Herbert, Hans, Hank and Harris/Harrison

Irma
Ilene, Imogen/Imogene, Ivy, Ira, Izzy

Maria
Megan, Marcia, Mercedes, Marta, Melinda


I would much rather see Ira saved as a replacement for the next "male" I name that needs to be retired. It's the male "I" names where they will have much more problems coming up with suitable candidates than the female "I" names. If they "run out" of any group in the first half of the alphabet, it will surely be the male I's.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#96 Postby Torino » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:11 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The five top replacements (with possible variants) for each storm, IMO

Harvey
Harold/Harry, Hubert/Herbert, Hans, Hank and Harris/Harrison

Irma
Ilene, Imogen/Imogene, Ivy, Ira, Izzy

Maria
Megan, Marcia, Mercedes, Marta, Melinda


Ilene and Ivy have been suggested as replacement names before.
Isabel: Ida, Ivy, Ina;
Isis: Ivette, Iola, Ilene.

Just for curiosity, other names that weren't picked (the ones that I know):
Lili: Lisette, Lucy;
Fabian: Flynn, Ford;
Juan: Jorge, Jaime;
Felix: Firmin;
Sandy: Sheri, Susan;
Joaquin: Jerrold, James, Jorge.

I think they will keep Maria's Spanish ethnicity with the new name. I know they have broken that rule before, but Mindy and Melissa aren't very common in Spanish speaking countries (maybe Melissa a little), and Puerto Rico is among the most affected places.
I see most people saying Harold for Harvey, I think it will be the one.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#97 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:34 pm

You could have variants of any storm name, including retired ones.

Andrew was retired in 1992 yet Andrea and Andres remain. Juan was retired in 2003. We've seen Ivan the following year, Sean in 2011, Ian in 2016 and John next year (most notably 1994).... Maria exists alongside Marie.

Btw, Maria is still in the WPac lists yet Vicente was retired.....
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#98 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:42 pm

euro6208 wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:For the WPac, Hato has good chance of going as well. This is actually the first use of "Hato," since it is the replacement name for 2011's Washi.


WPAC storms rarely get retired. Unlike the Atlantic, the retirement is very strict even with a high death toll and high damage. Alot manages to get through without retirement and that says alot for Hato with billions of people over here.

For the 2015 and 2016 seasons, the WPac had become more lenient on the retirement of typhoons. Those seasons have four retirees each.... which would make it among the most on record, only behind 2005's NAtl season.

They replaced Lan with Vicente, yet again they kept Maria. The latter was much more devastating. Should we retire Maria as well if it were the case??
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#99 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:23 am

Torino wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:The five top replacements (with possible variants) for each storm, IMO

Harvey
Harold/Harry, Hubert/Herbert, Hans, Hank and Harris/Harrison

Irma
Ilene, Imogen/Imogene, Ivy, Ira, Izzy

Maria
Megan, Marcia, Mercedes, Marta, Melinda


Ilene and Ivy have been suggested as replacement names before.
Isabel: Ida, Ivy, Ina;
Isis: Ivette, Iola, Ilene.

Just for curiosity, other names that weren't picked (the ones that I know):
Lili: Lisette, Lucy;
Fabian: Flynn, Ford;
Juan: Jorge, Jaime;
Felix: Firmin;
Sandy: Sheri, Susan;
Joaquin: Jerrold, James, Jorge.

I think they will keep Maria's Spanish ethnicity with the new name. I know they have broken that rule before, but Mindy and Melissa aren't very common in Spanish speaking countries (maybe Melissa a little), and Puerto Rico is among the most affected places.
I see most people saying Harold for Harvey, I think it will be the one.


I'd have first suggested Marielle or Muriel for Maria but they sound too similar.
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Re: 2017 Cyclones Retirement

#100 Postby Cdf » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:22 pm

Let's see if Ophelia gets retired too....
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