Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Invest 93L is up)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[hd44]

Development looks likely. High confidence that we have a long tracker here. Gfs/Ecmwf both form it , and it typical for early September.

[TheStormExpert]

Development looks likely. High confidence that we have a long tracker here. Gfs/Ecmwf both form it , and it typical for early September.

I'd go 50/50 for now with the idea of immediate development leading to a long tracker. Yes it has climatology going for it, but as we've seen so far this season this may be one to watch down the line like the 00z Euro was hinting.

Btw, was this the wave that the Euro a few days ago was immediately developing and sending it off into the East-Central Atlantic?

[hd44]

Development looks likely. High confidence that we have a long tracker here. Gfs/Ecmwf both form it , and it typical for early September.

I'd go 50/50 for now with the idea of immediate development leading to a long tracker. Yes it has climatology going for it, but as we've seen so far this season this may be one to watch down the line like the 00z Euro was hinting.

Btw, was this the wave that the Euro a few days ago was immediately developing and sending it off into the East-Central Atlantic?

Conditions are rapidly becoming extremely favorable http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.24.2017.gif
I think the season is about to explode. See the blue along the equatorial Pacific ?? We have had a lot of weak system and 2 strong. Now it appears it will be more favorable.

[hd44]

With a developing La nina and the Atlantic unanimously warm.... this looking like some of our bigger seasons.

[TheStormExpert]

Development looks likely. High confidence that we have a long tracker here. Gfs/Ecmwf both form it , and it typical for early September.

I'd go 50/50 for now with the idea of immediate development leading to a long tracker. Yes it has climatology going for it, but as we've seen so far this season this may be one to watch down the line like the 00z Euro was hinting.

Btw, was this the wave that the Euro a few days ago was immediately developing and sending it off into the East-Central Atlantic?

Conditions are rapidly becoming extremely favorable http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.24.2017.gif
I think the season is about to explode. See the blue along the equatorial Pacific ?? We have had a lot of weak system and 2 strong. Now it appears it will be more favorable.

Is that a La Niña developing in the East-Central Equatorial Pacific? Just a week or so ago the Equatorial Pacific was quite warmer and that strip of cooler SST's in the North-Central Atlantic was nearly gone!

[hd44]

I'd go 50/50 for now with the idea of immediate development leading to a long tracker. Yes it has climatology going for it, but as we've seen so far this season this may be one to watch down the line like the 00z Euro was hinting.

Btw, was this the wave that the Euro a few days ago was immediately developing and sending it off into the East-Central Atlantic?

Conditions are rapidly becoming extremely favorable http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.8.24.2017.gif
I think the season is about to explode. See the blue along the equatorial Pacific ?? We have had a lot of weak system and 2 strong. Now it appears it will be more favorable.

Is that a La Niña developing in the East-Central Equatorial Pacific? Just a week or so ago the Equatorial Pacific was quite warmer and that strip of cooler SST's in the North-Central Atlantic was nearly gone!

Appears so. I am getting concerned about the season from now on even more. Non the less its a cool neutral which is also very favorable.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Will be keeping a general eye in this direction...as we saw, things can always sneak up on us. Weather is not, nor will it ever be, IMO, completely predictable. We can try out best, with science and technology and years and years of research, but at the end of the day, we are nothing compared to the ferocity of nature.

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... ics_11.png

[hd44]

Ecmwf has this remaining weak and getting organized by day 9/10 . Being weak lets this become a bigger threat.

[N2FSU]

12z Euro +240

[SFLcane]

Conditions much more favorable this go around still see this recurving before nearing the islands..

[gatorcane]

You can see the wave over Western Africa on this loop. Looks vigorous and already has spin:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Kingarabian]

Still some moderate dry air will be in its vicinity per NASA .

[gatorcane]

12Z EPS at 240 hours, mostly NE of Lesser Antilles with some ensembles very close to the islands:

[TheStormExpert]

East Coast trough waiting to save the day!

[AxaltaRacing24]

This better be a CV long tracker. We know what conditions are like for late low-riding developers right now.

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: East Coast trough waiting to save the day!

I don't think so, seems weak until it reaches the eastern carribean.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is stronger.

[cycloneye]

Much more strong.