Tropical Wave SE of Cabo Verde Islands (Invest 93L is up)

[SFLcane]

Hmmm... a lot more GEFS ensembles near Florida now.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF much south than past runs.

[HurricaneEric]

Not a pro by any means, but I'm taking intensity forecasting of this potential storm and steering with a grain of salt. I do however think genesis is very possible with this much model agreement.

The concern is if this storm ends up weaker in the MDR than what the models are proposing AND steering tends to trend more west as time goes by--like it typically does.

[gatorcane]

The Euro shows quite a ridge over the North-Central Atlantic that builds and moves west in tandem with this system. The Euro even shows some WSW movement. Long-range 216 hour position showing 500mb ridge over top.

[AutoPenalti]

The Euro shows quite a ridge over the North Atlantic that builds and moves west in tandem with this system. The Euro even shows some WSW movement. Long-range 216 hour position showing 500mb ridge over top.

Couple of days out but I did see on the GFS run that it was moving relatively in tandem with future 93L.

I think the shortwave nearing Chicago looks to maybe create a short term weakness after wards, we'll see.


EDIT: or not.

[gatorcane]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

[cycloneye]

End of run.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That's actually pretty concerning, a bit north of the Herbert Box.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That's actually pretty concerning, a bit north of the Herbert Box.

Possibly yet another wave to watch? (If it is in that position on Sept 6th it would make the first day of school quite interesting)

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That's actually pretty concerning, a bit north of the Herbert Box.

Possibly yet another wave to watch? (If it is in that position on Sept 6th it would make the first day of school quite interesting)

I thought classes started on the 21st of August?

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's actually pretty concerning, a bit north of the Herbert Box.

Possibly yet another wave to watch? (If it is in that position on Sept 6th it would make the first day of school quite interesting)

I thought classes started on the 21st of August?

For me (Private School) it is after labor day.

[sma10]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That's actually pretty concerning, a bit north of the Herbert Box.

Possibly yet another wave to watch? (If it is in that position on Sept 6th it would make the first day of school quite interesting)

Stay off that cell phone while in class!

[Blown Away]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That trough has not failed Fl in 12+ years, no reason to think it won't be in place just in time this season as well... I believe there has been an overall pattern change keeping system well E of SE Conus... I'm sure the pattern will change at some point, but it doesn't seem like this season will be any differen... JMHO

[TheStormExpert]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That trough has not failed Fl in 12+ years, no reason to think it won't be in place just in time this season as well... I believe there has been an overall pattern change keeping system well E of SE Conus... I'm sure the pattern will change at some point, but it doesn't seem like this season will be any differen... JMHO

What 12+ year pattern? 2004 saw Frances and Jeanne strike in exact same locations along the East-Central Florida coast in September. Not to mention we just had a Cat.4 Hurricane Harvey devastate and cripple Texas.

[ColdMiser123]

Ominous look on the Euro Ensembles. A substantial number bring this close to the east coast, with very deep disturbances.

[Steve]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That trough has not failed Fl in 12+ years, no reason to think it won't be in place just in time this season as well... I believe there has been an overall pattern change keeping system well E of SE Conus... I'm sure the pattern will change at some point, but it doesn't seem like this season will be any differen... JMHO

What 12+ year pattern? 2004 saw Frances and Jeanne strike in exact same locations along the East-Central Florida coast in September. Not to mention we just had a Cat.4 Hurricane Harvey devastate and cripple Texas.

2004 was 13 years ago

But I agree with you. This year many of the tracks are on the western side except the A storm early and the two that died out. Florida is in the crosshairs as much as it ever is. I'm not a hype person unless I see something that calls for hype. What I would say is that I don't expect Harvey to be the last Southern/SE US Threat this year.

Interestingly almost every other model except the GFS like a long tracker track and have it going west at 240 (JMA, Euro, NAVGEM). GFS that I have access to goes out the longest, but it recurves. CMC did too I think. Look for them both to come into better agreement with the other models in time. I don't know if this system will threaten the US, Mexico or the Islands, but it's another one we'll be watching for a while.

[TheStormExpert]

12z EPS Ensembles show less ridging and troughiness @240hrs. similar to the 00z EPS Ensembles with this area located just barely NE of the Eastern Caribbean.



One thing that is extremely noticeable is the 12z Euro is MUCH faster with this wave when compared to it's 00z run and the 12z GFS.

12z Euro @240hrs.


12z GFS @240hrs.

[Blown Away]

Euro 240 hours and ridge building west even more with the system moving west just north of the islands. Classic September setup. How the run ends:

https://s2.postimg.org/oijon32s9/ecmwf_ ... atl_11.png

That trough has not failed Fl in 12+ years, no reason to think it won't be in place just in time this season as well... I believe there has been an overall pattern change keeping system well E of SE Conus... I'm sure the pattern will change at some point, but it doesn't seem like this season will be any differen... JMHO

What 12+ year pattern? 2004 saw Frances and Jeanne strike in exact same locations along the East-Central Florida coast in September. Not to mention we just had a Cat.4 Hurricane Harvey devastate and cripple Texas.

It's been 12 years since Frances/Jeanne/Katrina/Wilma affected FL... I stated SE Conus, not TX...

[HurricaneEric]

Ominous look on the Euro Ensembles. A substantial number bring this close to the east coast, with very deep disturbances.

Mind posting a link to them?