93L/Irma Total ACE Poll

[RL3AO]

It starts to add up quickly. We'll be at 26 units in 5 days if the NHC forecast verifies.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 100 1 2.8175

[1900hurricane]

Still way early in the game, but with Irma already at 100 kt, I'm starting to feel like my 40-50 ACE units may be on the low side. Every six hours spent at major hurricane intensity is at least one ACE point.

[Alyono]

given how slow Irma is moving, this one will be producing 60-70 ACE

[Steve]

given how slow Irma is moving, this one will be producing 60-70 ACE

That's way on the down side of the bell curve. It also would bring us to near average for the season with a lot of time to go.

[RL3AO]

Update through 12z on September 4.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 100 1 2.8175
2017090100 100 1 3.8175
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.72
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.6225
2017090118 100 1 6.6225
2017090200 100 1 7.6225
2017090206 100 1 8.6225
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.525
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.4275
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.33
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.2325
2017090312 100 1 13.2325
2017090318 100 1 14.2325
2017090400 100 1 15.2325
2017090406 100 1 16.2325
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.335

[bg1]

Update through 12z on September 4.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 100 1 2.8175
2017090100 100 1 3.8175
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.72
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.6225
2017090118 100 1 6.6225
2017090200 100 1 7.6225
2017090206 100 1 8.6225
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.525
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.4275
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.33
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.2325
2017090312 100 1 13.2325
2017090318 100 1 14.2325
2017090400 100 1 15.2325
2017090406 100 1 16.2325
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.335

I thought Irma jumped from 60 to 85 kts at one point?

[RL3AO]

I thought Irma jumped from 60 to 85 kts at one point?

Operationally it did, but NHC will make tweaks to the best track if more information comes in afterward.

[Kingarabian]

RL3AO, is Irma still on track to get at least 40 ACE?

[RL3AO]

RL3AO, is Irma still on track to get at least 40 ACE?

Easily. A minimal cat 4 racks up 5.29 ACE per day. Even if it manages to get caught up in Hispanolia, it should be near 35 ACE in 3 days.

[1900hurricane]

NHC's 9/4 2100Z forecast dumps out 29.83 units of ACE through five days. If added on top of Irma's 18.6575 ACE through 18Z 9/4, that would be 48.4875*10**4 kt**2 with still more to be gained prior to the storm's demise.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Irma approaching 40 units and still has over 5 days left, now at 155 kts.... by then it is forecast to remain above category 4 intensity which means it is plausible this would be among the top ACE producers in recorded history.

Edit: Abrupt change from 130 kts to 155 kts

[RL3AO]

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 100 1 2.8175
2017090100 100 1 3.8175
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.72
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.6225
2017090118 100 1 6.6225
2017090200 100 1 7.6225
2017090206 100 1 8.6225
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.525
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.4275
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.33
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.2325
2017090312 100 1 13.2325
2017090318 100 1 14.2325
2017090400 100 1 15.2325
2017090406 100 1 16.2325
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.335
2017090418 115 1.3225 18.6575
2017090500 120 1.44 20.0975
2017090506 135 1.8225 21.92
2017090512 155 2.4025 24.3225

[SouthDadeFish]

Nothing like a 155 knot intensity to crank up the ACE... Thanks for sharing the updated totals.

[RL3AO]

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 100 1 2.8175
2017090100 100 1 3.8175
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.72
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.6225
2017090118 100 1 6.6225
2017090200 100 1 7.6225
2017090206 100 1 8.6225
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.525
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.4275
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.33
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.2325
2017090312 100 1 13.2325
2017090318 100 1 14.2325
2017090400 100 1 15.2325
2017090406 100 1 16.2325
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.335
2017090418 115 1.3225 18.6575
2017090500 120 1.44 20.0975
2017090506 135 1.8225 21.92
2017090512 155 2.4025 24.3225
2017090518 160 2.56 26.8825
2017090600 160 2.56 29.4425
2017090606 160 2.56 32.0025

Can it break Ivan's (modern) record of 70.6? It has a chance.

[1900hurricane]

Irma isn't going to have the same crazy duration as Ivan '04 (probably), but the higher intensities seem to be making up for it. It took Ivan 8.25 days to reach ~35 ACE, a day longer than Irma.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I was unable to vote but if I were ever given a choice, I'd handily pick "More than 60" among those above. Within the next three days, Irma may already exceed 50 units and given her strong unusually intensity and longevity it has a shot at surpassing not just Ivan but Ioke as well, considering the latter two were weaker at their peaks than Irma is currently. Irma is holding on to 160-knot strength longer than previously anticipated, with the NHC previously predicting it would be around 145-150 kts by now

[1900hurricane]

The NHC forecast has Irma claiming the overall NAtl ACE crown.

[RL3AO]

Doesn't seem to be any doubt of which poll selection will end up correct. Can it beat Ivan?

Accumulated Cyclone Energy for Irma (11L)
Time Intensity Adv. ACE Storm ACE
----------- ----------- ---------- -----------
2017083012 45 0.2025 0.2025
2017083018 50 0.25 0.4525
2017083100 55 0.3025 0.755
2017083106 65 0.4225 1.1775
2017083112 80 0.64 1.8175
2017083118 95 0.9025 2.72
2017090100 100 1 3.72
2017090106 95 0.9025 4.6225
2017090112 95 0.9025 5.525
2017090118 100 1 6.525
2017090200 100 1 7.525
2017090206 100 1 8.525
2017090212 95 0.9025 9.4275
2017090218 95 0.9025 10.33
2017090300 95 0.9025 11.2325
2017090306 95 0.9025 12.135
2017090312 100 1 13.135
2017090318 100 1 14.135
2017090400 100 1 15.135
2017090406 100 1 16.135
2017090412 105 1.1025 17.2375
2017090418 115 1.3225 18.56
2017090500 120 1.44 20
2017090506 135 1.8225 21.8225
2017090512 155 2.4025 24.225
2017090518 160 2.56 26.785
2017090600 160 2.56 29.345
2017090606 160 2.56 31.905
2017090612 160 2.56 34.465
2017090618 160 2.56 37.025
2017090700 160 2.56 39.585
2017090706 155 2.4025 41.9875
2017090712 150 2.25 44.2375
2017090718 150 2.25 46.4875

[1900hurricane]

I have 61.765 as of 00Z September 10. Less than 10 to Ivan '04 now (70.38). It'll be close.

[galaxy401]

If it's already over 60 then the winners have been decided. Congrats to the 9 people who picked the choice!