93L/Irma Total ACE Poll

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I was unable to vote but if I were ever given a choice, I'd handily pick "More than 60" among those above. Within the next three days, Irma may already exceed 50 units and given her strong unusually intensity and longevity it has a shot at surpassing not just Ivan but Ioke as well, considering the latter two were weaker at their peaks than Irma is currently. Irma is holding on to 160-knot strength longer than previously anticipated, with the NHC previously predicting it would be around 145-150 kts by now

Irma now approximately 63.1 and may exceed Ivan's record of 70 IMO

[weathaguyry]

I'm going with 30-40, Irma seems to be at a fairly high latitude, so I dont believe it will affect the CONUS, but may possibly affect Bermuda, the storm looks nice already, and doesn't have to contend with the SAL or shear that earlier storms had to, so it's a good bet that this will become a major, just a complete opinion though

*facepalms 11 days later*

[1900hurricane]

66.22 now, although it's going to add up much slower now that Irma is <100 kt. Ivan '04 appears to be safe, but there is a good chance it can remain above Isabel '03 for the NAtl's number two in the satellite era once the final best track is out.

[1900hurricane]

The southwestward dip before reaching 20ºN should help keep Irma over sufficiently warm waters for a long time, and it actually reminds me somewhat of the all-time ACE champion, Ioke '06. It's probably a safe assumption that we aren't going to challenge Ioke's ~85 units of ACE, but the system's overall longevity at high intensity ceiling is pretty up there. It's just a question of how much is realized.

Looks like almost all of it was realized. Without getting too bizarre with potential tracks, pretty much the only way it could have stayed stronger for longer is if it managed to track further south and/or west (like Ivan '04) or managed to pull a Joan '97 style graceful recurve just off the Florida coast.

The southwestward dip before reaching 20ºN should help keep Irma over sufficiently warm waters for a long time, and it actually reminds me somewhat of the all-time ACE champion, Ioke '06. It's probably a safe assumption that we aren't going to challenge Ioke's ~85 units of ACE, but the system's overall longevity at high intensity ceiling is pretty up there. It's just a question of how much is realized.

I'm starting to wonder if we can get 10 days of a major hurricane out of this. Starting to look like it could be one in 2 or 3 days.

Unless some of the Eastern Atlantic 95 kt intensities get bumped up in the final best track, it looks like we're capping out at 8.5 days, good for the NAtl's number 2 in the satellite era (behind Ivan '04 at 10 days) and number 4 globally over the same span (with Ioke '06 and Paka '97 with 11.25 and 8.75 days, respectively).