Western Gulf disturbance

[tropicwatch]

NHC removed it from the 2am TWO.

[N2FSU]

NHC removed it from the 2am TWO.

and now the convection looks the best it has so far down there

[tolakram]

It appears anything that forms will stay in the same general area and never get organized.

[Stormcenter]

This should eventually get drawn northward sometime early next week.

[tropicwatch]

It is hard to tell but it looks like there might be a slight rotation south-south east of Brownsville Texas.

[northjaxpro]

Convection has been steadily increasing down in the BOC/SW GOM region since last night. GFS dropped the idea of development down in this region late yesterday and NHC dropped mention of this area in their TWO.

I will say this. I will be watching closely to see if the models jump back on board with development. Obviously, we must watch this carefully. I was hoping that this area would not perculate with activity in the wake immediately of Harvey's aftermath. But, convection is increasing down there again.

[tropicwatch]

Just read the latest TWD. There is a surface trough in the BOC.

[northjaxpro]

Just read the latest TWD. There is a surface trough in the BOC.

Yes, Panama , there is, deep down in the Bay of Campeche, as analyzed by NHC/WPC at 16Z

[northjaxpro]

Also, I am curious about the tropical wave currently approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave has remained an entity across the entire Caribbean basin as it has tracked W/NW. I wonder how the wave interacts with the trough in place in the BOC in the next couple of days. It may be the kicker to start development down there. Something to watch going into the holiday weekend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lot of convection blowing up over the BOC and Central Gulf. Tropical wave approaching from the NW Caribbean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[Stormcenter]

I think the NHC is a little preoccupied with Irma who is still over 1,000 miles from the U.S.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I think this may be developed for real. The convection/TW to the east of this would merge with this convection and Jose would come out from this...
NHC and models... wake up!

[canefan]

It doesn't look like anyone is paying attention to this > http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4734&y=6838&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[cycloneye]

Note= This thread has been locked as it was made for another area of interest on August 30th that never developed.A new thread for the BOC area is now available for open discussion.

Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche thread