Western Gulf disturbance

[Ivanhater]

Models seem to show an alarming trend of a tropical storm forming in the western Gulf..in light of what has happened with Harvey. I feel this needs a thread to get people notified....Disturbance already seems to be forming in far SW Gulf

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is absolutely cruel... hurricane off the coast of Texas by 168 hours. Hopefully that's dead wrong.

[cajungal]

How many models are showing development? Watching closely here in SE Louisiana and praying for my neighbors in Texas.

[HurricaneA]

How many models are showing development? Watching closely here in SE Louisiana and praying for my neighbors in Texas.

As of right now, the GFS and Euro show this system as far as I know.

[tolakram]

Looks like a fairly fast mover, skirting the coast all the way to Florida this run. A LOT can change.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro (early this morning) delays development and keeps offshore till Florida.

[PTrackerLA]

Let's hope this is a model-cane because good grief.

[OntarioEggplant]

Let's hope this is a model-cane because good grief.

Usually when both the GFS and Euro show it this consistently, it isn't just a modelcane

[Steve]

How many models are showing development? Watching closely here in SE Louisiana and praying for my neighbors in Texas.

Euro at 12Z showed it yesterday but was much farther west with the end game (hitting SC LA rather than the Panhandle). GFS dragged up a loose/broad vortex or two prior to Irma making her way toward the Bahamas. CMC didn't show anything nor the JMA, and it was still too far out for the NAM. As of now, we have these

NAM 12km 12Z - Too far out since it only goes to 84 hours. There is some turning in the Bay of Campeche on that run.
NAM 32km 12Z - Too far out since it only goes to 84 hours. There is some turning in the Bay of Campeche on that run.

CMC (Canadian) 12Z - CMC now shows a low coming up but hitting the coast of Mexico 175 miles or so (estimated) south of the border and turning back down into Mexico. It now shows a system down there if nothing else.

GFS 12Z - Had only a blip yesterday but shows a closed isobar at 84 hours (valid Sunday Morning at 7am). By next Monday at 7am, it's coming together and moving up the coast. By Tuesday @ 7am, it's got a much better organized low just SE south of Brownsville moving north @ 992mb, presumably a strong tropical storm. By Wednesday @ 7am, it's at 979mb (presumably a hurricane) just south of Galveston on a NE type heading. It's at the mouth of the MS River by Thursday and back up to 992 as it is seemingly getting sapped by the trough. It wouldn't necessarily be degrading without either massive shear or if the moisture is evacuated and stretched out along the front. System continues to weaken as it moves East across the N Gulf toward Port St. Joe/Apalachicola. It's up and out with the front which some of the models use to steer the 925mb Beast Irma. We'll see on that 9 day solution.

NAVGEM 06Z - has nothing but the run stops around 138 hours. On the 00Z run, it was the first one to join with the ECMWF showing true development. However, it has something coming up just east of Brownsville at 180 hours. It's ballpark with what GFS/ECMWF show but that's 7 1/2 days from this morning at 1:00am (next Wednesday at 1pm). Looks a little slow compared to other models.

ECMWF 00Z - 12Z will be running within the hour. Yesterday's 12Z was the first time I saw development in the Gulf. The 00Z run has the low just SE of Brownsville at 7 Days which is about a half day slower than the GFS but in the same spot. By next Thursday night, it has the low 150-200 miles or so south of Lake Charles. It goes by the mouth of the MS river only to be just off the coast of Port St. Joe at the end of the run. It's got a very similar track to the GFS and also keeps it relatively weaker than the GFS does while in the NW Gulf. Interestingly, the 12Z run yesterday had it near New Iberia and then slid it 10mb weaker over toward New Orleans. I'm not sure what to make of the weakening indicated. We'll see how today's 12Z run goes and whether it still agrees on a very similar solution with the GFS by Day 9/10.

[KWT]

GFS ensembles are keen on this one as well. Given the W.Gulf has been pretty favourable thus far this season, quite possible that something does form in this area.

It may save the US from another 4/5 hurricane in the form of Irma though if it does form. Of course nothing to say this wouldn't have time to strengthen into a cane itself, certainly the GFS suggests it could and Harvey showed how quickly they can become beasts.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Stormcenter]

When the NHC mentions model storms then it's time to take notice. IMO

2 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[KWT]

GFS drops an additional 2-3 inches near Houston, upto a max of around 15 inches near the border between La/TX on the southern part of the coast.

Also GFS has this at roughly a 80mph hurricane at its peak.

[OntarioEggplant]

12Z Euro a good bit slower than the 12Z GFS at development. Has it off the coast of the Rio Grande about 12 hours later.

[OntarioEggplant]

Euro has a much earlier arriving front this run which pushed it S and SE through hour 198.

[OntarioEggplant]

Stronger and back in to the Bay of Campeche by hour 216

[OntarioEggplant]

Strengthening and meandering in the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run.

Very bizarre run of the Euro. I'll be interested to see if the EPS shows similar southerly paths with a front approaching

[Steve]

Strengthening and meandering in the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run.

Very bizarre run of the Euro. I'll be interested to see if the EPS shows similar southerly paths with a front approaching

It's a real question mark. The trough that could pick up Irma is lifting out as it is influencing a WNW move toward the end of the ECMWF run. Real tough forecast and why I think it squashed down the BoC storm back to where it came from. Can Irma follow that trough? I don't see a big push from behind it, but will the Atlantic ridge be working its way back west and pushing Irma back Westward (presumably into Florida or at least the Bahamas)? Will the high spinning across the northern tier influence it that way too? Highs have been rolling off the coast all summer. So you'd have to assume that would continue to progress.

[chaser1]

Strengthening and meandering in the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run.

Very bizarre run of the Euro. I'll be interested to see if the EPS shows similar southerly paths with a front approaching

Hmmmm, maybe not so strange? Interesting that the prior CMC run had kept this new system buried back toward the BOC. Of the flip side where this would of course be a far better solution for the Texas coastline right now....., might portend of a building Continental US ridge to the north, thus potentially trapping an approaching Hurricane Irma from the East??

[chaser1]

Strengthening and meandering in the Bay of Campeche at the end of the run.

Very bizarre run of the Euro. I'll be interested to see if the EPS shows similar southerly paths with a front approaching

It's a real question mark. The trough that could pick up Irma is lifting out as it is influencing a WNW move toward the end of the ECMWF run. Real tough forecast and why I think it squashed down the BoC storm back to where it came from. Can Irma follow that trough? I don't see a big push from behind it, but will the Atlantic ridge be working its way back west and pushing Irma back Westward (presumably into Florida or at least the Bahamas)? Will the high spinning across the northern tier influence it that way too? Highs have been rolling off the coast all summer. So you'd have to assume that would continue to progress.

Fascinating how different the steering appears to be verses how we've come to anticipate each year! Any other year it would seem that we'd have a trough dug south from the Canadian Maritimes and hanging south off the E. Conus from that point. Thus, a fairly reliable anticipation that a Hurricane Irma approaching from the SE would liking pull pole-ward north of the Islands and possibly towards Bermuda from there. Likewise, we'd see a possible BOC development in that set up and assume a due west motion into mainland Mexico or possibly to shoot NNE toward the Fla. Panhandle or Ceder Key while caught in the southwesterly flow if the trough was tilted southwest enough. This year however, the set up seems distinctly different. The long-wave pattern not only shifted hundreds of miles further west, but short waves dropping into this trough pattern are also being tilted fairly northeast to southwest. Whether this is the result of strong high pressure over the far W. Atlantic or more likely both steering mechanisms simply a result of an overall larger CONUS climate pattern this summer, the end result certainly has potentially very different and dangerous implications.