Harvey could supplant Katrina as Costliest Hurricane

[Exalt]

From USA Today:

Hurricane Harvey could be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, according to USA Today.

It has a potential price tag of $160 billion, a report from AccuWeather says.

This is more than the combined cost of Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy.

“Parts of Houston, the United States' fourth largest city, will be uninhabitable for weeks and possibly months due to water damage, mold, disease-ridden water and all that will follow this 1,000-year flood,” said AccuWeather president Joel Myers.

I don't quite know if I buy it yet (by that much at least), but seeing all the devastation there currently is and any more possible damage, it seems plausible for Harvey to replace Katrina as the costliest hurricane (sans inflation).

[Steve]

Yeah. I was watching some of the rescues in Beaumont, and it looked like the damage was extensive. We still have days to go with cresting rivers and such. And they have to count up the damage. I haven't seen estimates of the number of homes impacted, but because of the duration, it's over a very widespread area. I think 390-400k homes were destroyed in Katrina. I'm sure the numbers will be close if all the smaller towns along with cities like Port Arthur are affected > 75% along with the tens of thousands of homes damaged in Houston. The thing that victims of Harvey have going for them is most won't have to wait a month or more for the water to go down. The quicker you can gut Sheetrock and wet carpet and such, the quicker you can begin drying out. I think in today's numbers, Harvey will approach 100B and could top that. I don't know what Katrina would.be in real numbers today. There are $400k homes in neighborhoods like The Bywater that you could have picked up for 25k before Katrina. We also didn't experience real estate tanking during the Great Recession. At a minimum, homes are worth double today what they were 12 years ago. Katrina today, except that there are a lot of empty lots on the MS Gulf Coast and some abandoned properties here, would approach 150B. And considering well over 90% of the population left, there were still 1800+ deaths.

My guess is that if Harvey has destroyed over 350k homes (obviously damage to countless others), it could probably pass up Katrina in $.

Edit to add that I will always say despite the outcome, Katrina was only an average to slightly above average occurrence. Some have pointed to prior rain events in Texas history as evidence that it's nothing out of the ordinary. I call BS on that and would reiterate despite past historical events, no one alive will see this again.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah. I was watching some of the rescues in Beaumont, and it looked like the damage was extensive. We still have days to go with cresting rivers and such. And they have to count up the damage. I haven't seen estimates of the number of homes impacted, but because of the duration, it's over a very widespread area. I think 390-400k homes were destroyed in Katrina. I'm sure the numbers will be close if all the smaller towns along with cities like Port Arthur are affected > 75% along with the tens of thousands of homes damaged in Houston. The thing that victims of Harvey have going for them is most won't have to wait a month or more for the water to go down. The quicker you can gut Sheetrock and wet carpet and such, the quicker you can begin drying out. I think in today's numbers, Harvey will approach 100B and could top that. I don't know what Katrina would.be in real numbers today. There are $400k homes in neighborhoods like The Bywater that you could have picked up for 25k before Katrina. We also didn't experience real estate tanking during the Great Recession. At a minimum, homes are worth double today what they were 12 years ago. Katrina today, except that there are a lot of empty lots on the MS Gulf Coast and some abandoned properties here, would approach 150B. And considering well over 90% of the population left, there were still 1800+ deaths.

My guess is that if Harvey has destroyed over 350k homes (obviously damage to countless others), it could probably pass up Katrina in $.

Edit to add that I will always say despite the outcome, Katrina was only an average to slightly above average occurrence. Some have pointed to prior rain events in Texas history as evidence that it's nothing out of the ordinary. I call BS on that and would reiterate despite past historical events, no one alive will see this again.

Housing costs are another factor. A storm hitting the Northeast would have a much higher cost than the same impact of a storm in most southern areas due to the fact land and housing are cheaper on the Gulf coast. Given the number of houses destroyed, I think $100 billion or more is very plausible.

[Steve]

Yeah. That seems reasonable. I agreed with someone on Friday that I thought it had potential to be very expensive but a a bit under Andrew. Seemed 18-25MM would be ballpark. That was wrong partially due to the vast areas affected. Quadruple that.

[Steve]

Harvey is now #2 and counting at an estimated $80,000,000,000 in losses per the Washington Post. I think that's in today's dollars. Apparently Katrina is $160 billion in today's dollars.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... short_home

[nutkin517]

The town that I grew up in (Vidor) had probably 95% of homes and businesses flooded. I believe all of the schools were also flooded. The Neches River is still rising today, so more homes and businesses are still flooding. Everyone was able to see Pt. Arthur and Beaumont's flooding. They are just now able to show Orange, but I haven't seen any footage from Bridge City, Pt. Neches, or Groves. BC sits directly on the Neches and the road is level with the river in a lot of places. People are just now able to get back into Pt. Arthur today, so there is really no way to determine how much damage and the cost. We won't know for weeks in some cases.

[Ntxw]

This is not a shocker. Each storm hitting is becoming more and more expensive. Even a minimal hurricane nowadays becomes a billion dollar disaster even if it hits a fairly rural area. Development is just staggering and population growth along the coasts. Harvey was a special circumstance in his rainfall patterns but cost wise every major storm that hits now will more likely crack top 5 compared to previous decades.

[Steve]

The town that I grew up in (Vidor) had probably 95% of homes and businesses flooded. I believe all of the schools were also flooded. The Neches River is still rising today, so more homes and businesses are still flooding. Everyone was able to see Pt. Arthur and Beaumont's flooding. They are just now able to show Orange, but I haven't seen any footage from Bridge City, Pt. Neches, or Groves. BC sits directly on the Neches and the road is level with the river in a lot of places. People are just now able to get back into Pt. Arthur today, so there is really no way to determine how much damage and the cost. We won't know for weeks in some cases.

Yeah, that was my point the other day exactly with all the "small" towns in SE and E Texas and the yet to crest rivers including their watersheds and basins. We really don't know. Washington Post is probably one of the top 2 or 3 newspapers we have in the country and probably top 10 in the world even though it gets attacked by some when they don't like what it says. But they'd be on top of it as much as anyone, and if it's $80B and counting, it's probably going up over $100B. One thing though is that if houses are damaged and flooded, you can still save them. It's when they sit in water for a week or so that they basically become uninhabitable unless you take them down to the frame, treat and dry them out. I'm actually kind of happy with the guesses I had on the points that I didn't know (Katrina being $150B in today's dollars where it's $160B, etc.).

[mitchell]

As everywhere else, Houstonians are dropping their flood insurance policies in large numbers. This despite the very well documented flood risk. This event will probably drive congress to make finally sweeping changes

[Steve]

I don't know what the answers are. Best most of those people will get is a grant to raise their houses. But they won't replace what they lost. As a taxpayer, I don't mind helping out with domestic disasters. But people have to take some responsibility. The irony of America 2017 is that with all the great information there is out there like never before, we are perhaps the dumbest we've ever been. We believe in conspiracies, pure b.s. and wildly cheer for those telling us what we want to hear rather than seeking out the truth. Truth is if you live near a place that rains often, you might flood. If you live near a large body of water or river, you might flood. If you live in the desert, you might flood. There's no way around it. There are all kinds of floods, and we have a decent program to help us mitigate our losses. But no. Baton Rouge isn't going to flood. Houston isn't going to flood. Kansas City isn't going to flood...

[Dean_175]

A week before landfall, Harvey was just a failed tropical storm that had degenerated into an open wave. It is amazing that now we are talking about it being the costliest hurricane in US history.

[1900hurricane]

Somewhat similar to 10L and then Katrina from 2005, isn't it?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

My family couldn't even get a mortgage on the house without having flood insurance. I'm not sure how everyone is just dropping their flood insurance like that. Then again the house is in a 100 year flood plain. Perhaps these people are located outside the way they are currently defined?...
(And yeah we know it's gonna flood. Our neighborhood floods several times a year. I'm okay living with that risk because we're prepared for it.)

[storm_in_a_teacup]

A week before landfall, Harvey was just a failed tropical storm that had degenerated into an open wave. It is amazing that now we are talking about it being the costliest hurricane in US history.

Harvey was an...interesting character to be sure. I just had to write some fiction personifying it even as it was destroying my city. Speaking of which gotta do the conclusion. I might post it on this site later.

[Kingarabian]

Unfortunately, Irma could supplant both if these model runs verify.

[bohaiboy]

I live in Spring TX, about 25 mile north of downtown. We are not in the 100 year flood plain, but my neighbors across the street are because there is a drainage ditch that is connected to Spring Creek about 1/2 mile away. The past two storms we had area wide flooding in 2015/16, water came in to their backyards, The ditch is approximately 25 ft deep. This year they had about 24" in their homes. I know 2 of the three had flood insurance as it is mandatory if you have a mortgage. Not so if the house is paid for. Being outside the flood plain, my insurance is $450/yr for $250k structure and $100k contents. Not nearly enough to cover a catastrophic flood but better than nothing. We have two levels so a lot of things could be moved with warning. A lot of homes that flooded in Houston have never flooded before and are not in a flood plain, so their insurance is voluntary.

[Ptarmigan]

Somewhat similar to 10L and then Katrina from 2005, isn't it?

Tropical Depression 10 got merged by another tropical wave , which later became Tropical Depression 12 and Katrina.

[1900hurricane]

Somewhat similar to 10L and then Katrina from 2005, isn't it?

Tropical Depression 10 got merged by another tropical wave , which later became Tropical Depression 12 and Katrina.

Indeed which is why I kept 10L and 12L (Katrina) separated. I just meant that Harvey reminded me of that scenario.

A week before landfall, Harvey was just a failed tropical storm that had degenerated into an open wave. It is amazing that now we are talking about it being the costliest hurricane in US history.

[nutkin517]

The issue with Harvey is that places that have never flooded before got a ton of water. My parents' house (in S Vidor) sits on piers. It was over the bottom 2 of 3 steps up to their front door. My parents have lived in the same house for 45 years and their street has never once flooded. Generally speaking, underpasses here might flood, and that is it. People that live in "flood plains" might get an inch of water in their homes. My sister lives in a flood plain and has flood insurance, she might have had an inch in her house. My brother, who doesn't live in a flood plain, had several feet.

My dad is 70 years old and has lived in Vidor for his entire life. He has never, ever seen flooding anywhere near this bad. He lived through Carla and every other hurricane and tropical storm that has come through since 1947 and there is absolutely nothing that compares to this. There are entire cities still without power because more than half of it is still under water. Still under water, a week later!

[Steve]

Conflicting information is still out as of now.

From today:
Mark Zandi from financial powerhouse Moody's (who does a lot of the bond ratings and credit ratings for countries, state and local governments, etc.) estimates that the aggregate cost of Irma and Harvey will be between $150-$200B. There could also be an additional 20-30B lost economic output, so they cut their 3rd Quarter GDP forecast to 2.5% (expects it to tick up in the 4Q due to construction and rebuilding).

Moody's estimates are as follows:

Harvey - $86-106B
Irma - $64-92B*

* I'm kind of shocked at the number they're throwing out for Irma. She'd be in the Top 5 all time if she wrought that kind of damage. After the non-destruction of Miami, I figured she would end up in the $10-20B range.

We'll have to see if the results hold up over time, but they're as good as anyone. For now, it's going to stay as follows until someone provides revised or better information:

1. Katrina
2. Harvey ?
3. Sandy (edit)

From August 30:

USA Today estimates Harvey will be the most expensive US Storm in history and cost about $190B. This was based on a preliminary report by Accuweather, and I don't think Accuweather is in the same class as Moody's. So we'll have to wait for more clarification in time:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/ ... 615708001/