For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

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Alyono
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For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#1 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:25 pm

This is an urgent message for those in the Leewards/Virgins who survived Luis/Marilyn

We know a category 4 hurricane when through in 1995. However, except for those on Barbuda and Anguilla, you did NOT go through cat 4 winds. You had the southern eyewall on Antigua and St. Martin. Winds were likely borderline cat 2/cat 3. If Irma does wobble south of the forecast track, it could be worse than Luis. Hopefully, this wobbles to the north, so it does not even approach Luis

In the Virgin Islands: St. Croix likely did get legit cat 2 winds. St. Thomas, you likely got upper cat 3, or perhaps even low end cat 4 winds (intensifying small canes have flight level winds roughly equal to flight level winds). Unless this makes a significant southward adjustment, this will NOT be as bad as Marilyn. More worried about the British Virgin Islands, however
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#2 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:05 pm

maybe we can sticky this through wednesday. I just want our members in the islands to be aware of the dangers of using a past storm as a benchmark inappropriately
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#3 Postby msbee » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:14 pm

Thank you Alonyo.
I don't even know how to respond to this. I can tell you everyone on St Maarten is VERY concerned and scared.
Hurricane Luis traumatized us forever.
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#4 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:30 pm

msbee wrote:Thank you Alonyo.
I don't even know how to respond to this. I can tell you everyone on St Maarten is VERY concerned and scared.
Hurricane Luis traumatized us forever.


best thing to let people know is they did NOT go through a cat 4 in Luis
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#5 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:04 pm

Alyono wrote:This is an urgent message for those in the Leewards/Virgins who survived Luis/Marilyn

We know a category 4 hurricane when through in 1995. However, except for those on Barbuda and Anguilla, you did NOT go through cat 4 winds. You had the southern eyewall on Antigua and St. Martin. Winds were likely borderline cat 2/cat 3. If Irma does wobble south of the forecast track, it could be worse than Luis. Hopefully, this wobbles to the north, so it does not even approach Luis

In the Virgin Islands: St. Croix likely did get legit cat 2 winds. St. Thomas, you likely got upper cat 3, or perhaps even low end cat 4 winds (intensifying small canes have flight level winds roughly equal to flight level winds). Unless this makes a significant southward adjustment, this will NOT be as bad as Marilyn. More worried about the British Virgin Islands, however

As Msbee i don't know how to respond to you! We should wait and see what really could happens with or without wobbles.
One thing for sure till Irma has not reached 60W and 20 N i won't let my guard down and i will advice all my friends to the Leewards, Northern Leewards, BVI, PR to stay focus on any moves of IRMA. Canes are often unpredictable so i must have to Watch carefully any deviation, changes in intensity, etc.
We cannot neglect any risk with this Hurricane IRMA. Best thing to do is to hope that nothing happens in any islands, pray and hoping for the best.
Many citizens will not forget hurricane HUGO 1989, i've personnaly experienced this beast so i can tell you that we're very nervous!
Each cane is singular so we should compare to long and to much IRMA to Marylin or even Luis IMO. Whereas we will appreciate your thoughts and positive prayers. :)
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#6 Postby Irina » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:36 pm

Good Luck to my friends in the islands.
MsBee I am with you all they way. As long as your internet holds.
Have friends in DR now. Wonder if anything will be felt there.
Good luck
i
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#7 Postby Irina » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:57 pm

Alonyo,

I see you are a professional met.
From where do you get your information? From everything I have found, having friends who live on Sint Maarten, having lived on Sint Maarten and heard the stories, it all points to being a Cat 4. Total devastation.
Can you please explain?
Thanks.
irina
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#8 Postby natmicstef » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:42 pm

Another poster here from St.Maarten who experienced Luis. It was horrifying and we were always led to believe it was a cat 4. Very interested to hear more.
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#9 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:01 pm

Irina wrote:Alonyo,

I see you are a professional met.
From where do you get your information? From everything I have found, having friends who live on Sint Maarten, having lived on Sint Maarten and heard the stories, it all points to being a Cat 4. Total devastation.
Can you please explain?
Thanks.
irina


Luis was a category 4 hurricane. However, the strongest part of the hurricane is the right side nearly every time. In addition, Luis passed 25 miles northeast of St. Martin. It clipped NE Anguilla. That means any cat 4 winds would have been confined to Anguilla. Barbuda also got the worst part of the cane.

The part that St. Martin got likely contained borderline cat 2/3 winds. Now, that still means SUSTAINED winds in the 105-115 mph range with gusts as high as 140 mph! To better put it in perspective, that's EF3 strength gusts! Very similar winds occurred at Antigua in Luis. Those would have been the winds at the surface (10m elevation). In the mountains, winds could be 1-2 categories higher.

If Irma unfortunately goes south of St. Martin, except worse than Luis unless this goes not intensify as forecast
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#10 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:16 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL131995_Luis.pdf

In section 3, the NHC TCR states "The estimate for St. Maartin and St. Martin is 60 percent damage from a category 2 or 3 hurricane"

My analysis agrees with NHC that St. Martin did NOT get a category 4 hurricane
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#11 Postby msbee » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:35 pm

Thank you, Alonyo , for your explanation.
The damage from Luis on St Maarten was more like 90% though.
The Met office of Curacao stated this in their report:
"Hurricane Luis
The center of hurricane Luis passed at approximately 55 km north of St. Maarten in the early evening of
September 5, 1995, moving in a west-northwesterly direction. While the center of hurricane Luis was just
north of St. Maarten, the maximum sustained winds near the center and the lowest barometric reading of
the hurricane, were respectively 140 mph (205 km/h) and 939 millibars. The strongest wind gust recorded
at the Princess Juliana Airport was 114 mph (183 km/h) at 18:30 local time and the lowest barometric
reading recorded at the airport was 963 millibars. From the 4th of September through the 6th,
approximately 200 mm of rainfall was recorded. Locally on the island, this amount was exceeded to
values between 200 mm and 250 mm.
Fortunately, due to a well-functioning warning system and very timely warnings, only very limited
casualties were experienced (official records: two deaths). The damage, especially on the island of St.
Maarten, was extensive. The total damage was estimated to be approximately 1 billion US dollars (direct
and indirect). Over 90% of all construction was damaged or had been completely destroyed. Nearly all
power and telephone lines were damaged and out of operation which left the island for several days
without communication with the rest of the world."
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#12 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:37 am

unfortunately, we're now talking orders of magnitude greater than Luis. Hopefully this weakens before reaching the islands
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#13 Postby Haddox12 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:16 pm

I have an uncle who lives on St. Thomas, he's been down there for decades. He went through Marilyn in '95 and went through Irma yesterday. For whatever it's worth, he said Marilyn didn't even compare to Irma, that Irma was like nothing he'd ever seen before. He said the island is just destroyed.
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#14 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:13 pm

Haddox12 wrote:I have an uncle who lives on St. Thomas, he's been down there for decades. He went through Marilyn in '95 and went through Irma yesterday. For whatever it's worth, he said Marilyn didn't even compare to Irma, that Irma was like nothing he'd ever seen before. He said the island is just destroyed.


does not surprise me.

Seems like Irma became the 5th cat 5 to ever strike the USA yesterday when that west wobble took the eyewall over the USVI
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#15 Postby BatzVI » Fri Sep 08, 2017 8:12 pm

I'm on the northside of St. Thomas and just experienced Irma...this island and St. John are devastated. We are hearing it will be at least 3-6 months or longer for power...We are under curfew so have not driven at all but reports are that its unlike anything that anyone has ever seen...I am alive and safe....
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#16 Postby abajan » Sat Sep 09, 2017 7:04 pm

Alyono wrote:This is an urgent message for those in the Leewards/Virgins who survived Luis/Marilyn

We know a category 4 hurricane when through in 1995. However, except for those on Barbuda and Anguilla, you did NOT go through cat 4 winds. You had the southern eyewall on Antigua and St. Martin. Winds were likely borderline cat 2/cat 3. If Irma does wobble south of the forecast track, it could be worse than Luis. Hopefully, this wobbles to the north, so it does not even approach Luis

In the Virgin Islands: St. Croix likely did get legit cat 2 winds. St. Thomas, you likely got upper cat 3, or perhaps even low end cat 4 winds (intensifying small canes have flight level winds roughly equal to flight level winds). Unless this makes a significant southward adjustment, this will NOT be as bad as Marilyn. More worried about the British Virgin Islands, however

To this day, many people in Jamaica think they experienced a Cat 5 hurricane when Gilbert hit that country in 1988. They don't realize it actually was "just" a Cat 3 (with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph) at the time, and strengthened to Cat 5 only after leaving Jamaica.
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#17 Postby msbee » Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:33 am

Dear Alyono
You were right!
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#18 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:04 am

msbee wrote:Dear Alyono
You were right!


wish I were wrong though. Hope to never see a hurricane like that hit land again. Unfortunately, I was wrong on the USVI impact. It made the southward shift and the eyewall hit there too as a cat 5
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#19 Postby Alyono » Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:42 pm

This may be the definitive word on the comparison between the two storms

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... a7e64146d0

wind gust of 173 kts at St. Barthelemy in the southern eyewall when equipment failed. This is at ~16m elevation, so the 10m gust may be closer to 165 kts. Still, this is 30 kt higher than the peak Luis gust of 135 kts at St. Barthelemy

If we were getting peak gusts in the 165-170 kt range in the southern eyewall, how high were they in the northern eyewall? Wouldn't be surprised if Anguilla and the BVI maybe had gusts approaching 190-200 kts
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Re: For those in Leewards/Virgins: Comparison to Luis/Marilyn

#20 Postby Chris90 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:38 pm

I have some YouTube links to a couple of videos that claim to be Irma footage from Anguilla, there's nothing to confirm them as 100% legit, but based off the video evidence I have no reason to disbelieve them.

I'll post them, I just want up make sure it's ok. I know there's rules about hotlinking images, so I just want to make sure that it's ok to post a YouTube link.
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