Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:40 pm

2 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:28 pm

12Z Euro develops this. :darrow:

Image
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 pm

And then loses it 24 hours later after sending it into Mexico.

Image
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2019
Age: 26
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:
Contact CyclonicFury

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 pm

I think we could see a quick spin-up in the Bay of Campeche. It's near the peak of the season and we have seen this occur numerous times in recent years.
0 likes   
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#5 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:13 pm

We already have a spin to the Low level clouds in the very bottom of the BOC, I find it had to believe that it would sit down there 4 or 5 days before developing.
https://ibb.co/iUgLda
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm

8 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
SuperMarioBros99thx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#7 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:33 am

So it looks like that convection on southwestern Gulf managed to survive long time enough to reform itself (and also merged with that TW) into a new convection on it's own. Great convection!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:10 am

2AM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:37 am

8AM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
SuperMarioBros99thx
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2017 7:38 am

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#10 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:54 am

Invest 95L commences!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#11 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:32 am

Don't see anything up on the NRL site for a 95L but agree that might soon, pretty good model support.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#12 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:33 pm

2PM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3364
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#13 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:41 pm

Really surprised no Invest yet.
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143865
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:45 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Really surprised no Invest yet.


Will be up soon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:52 pm

Possible recon mission on Wednesday afternoon.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 3-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 06/2100Z ON IRMA.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 96.0W.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
canefan
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:15 am

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#16 Postby canefan » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:55 pm

Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.
0 likes   
Top
stormreader

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#17 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:38 pm

canefan wrote:Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.

You're right. Just saw your post on the Irma models thread. Definitely looks like greater than a 10% chance at this point.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 pm

Yeah, there is a quite well defined circualtion and increasing convection. it might be sheared but there plenty of model support for this to be a TS soon.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2772
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#19 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 pm

on sat loops it looks to be moving off the west rapidly
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5885
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#20 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:08 pm

Yep, well defined circulation headed to the west. Lots of shear though....MGC
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: chaser1 and 106 guests