Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)

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cycloneye
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Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:40 pm

2 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extent from the Yucatan Peninsula westward into the Bay of Campeche.
Environmental conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for
significant development as the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:28 pm

12Z Euro develops this. :darrow:

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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:30 pm

And then loses it 24 hours later after sending it into Mexico.

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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#4 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:37 pm

I think we could see a quick spin-up in the Bay of Campeche. It's near the peak of the season and we have seen this occur numerous times in recent years.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#5 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:13 pm

We already have a spin to the Low level clouds in the very bottom of the BOC, I find it had to believe that it would sit down there 4 or 5 days before developing.
https://ibb.co/iUgLda
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 pm

8 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#7 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:33 am

So it looks like that convection on southwestern Gulf managed to survive long time enough to reform itself (and also merged with that TW) into a new convection on it's own. Great convection!
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:10 am

2AM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next few
days while it drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#9 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 6:37 am

8AM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#10 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:54 am

Invest 95L commences!
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#11 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:32 am

Don't see anything up on the NRL site for a 95L but agree that might soon, pretty good model support.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#12 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:33 pm

2PM:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
slow development of this system while it drifts west-northwestward
and remains over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#13 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:41 pm

Really surprised no Invest yet.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:45 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Really surprised no Invest yet.


Will be up soon.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#15 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:52 pm

Possible recon mission on Wednesday afternoon.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 3-HRLY FIXES BEGINNING AT 06/2100Z ON IRMA.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21.5N 96.0W.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#16 Postby canefan » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:55 pm

Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#17 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:38 pm

canefan wrote:Looks very healthy. You can clearly see the low-level circulation and there are plenty of thunderstorms building right over top of it.

You're right. Just saw your post on the Irma models thread. Definitely looks like greater than a 10% chance at this point.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 pm

Yeah, there is a quite well defined circualtion and increasing convection. it might be sheared but there plenty of model support for this to be a TS soon.
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#19 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:04 pm

on sat loops it looks to be moving off the west rapidly
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Re: Disturbed weather at Bay of Campeche

#20 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 04, 2017 3:08 pm

Yep, well defined circulation headed to the west. Lots of shear though....MGC
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