Wave south of Cabo Verde islands

[RL3AO]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in
approximately two days. Environmental conditions may be favorable
for the development of this system as it progresses
west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kazmit]

Yet another...
This season is becoming very active.

[EquusStorm]

One of the more impressive GTWO, for sure. Can't imagine there being literally enough room to cram too many more storms in the tropical region of the basin right now, heh. If Katia weren't going to die over land before then, would've possibly had four active storms/invests to track by early next week.

[Extratropical94]

8 AM:

The wording has changed from 'may be favorable' to 'only support gradual development'.

1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa by
tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions are only expected to
support gradual development of this system through early next week
as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[BYG Jacob]

8 AM:

The wording has changed from 'may be favorable' to 'only support gradual development'.

1. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa by
tomorrow morning. Environmental conditions are only expected to
support gradual development of this system through early next week
as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

There is tons of dry air and Sahara dust off the coast of Africa at the moment that will prohibit this from going anywhere until it gets to the mid-atlantic. Once it gets clear of the dust and if it can remain organized enough, it has a good chance of developing with low shear, moist air, and warm waters (its at roughly 10N).

[eastcoastFL]

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in
approximately two days. Environmental conditions may be favorable
for the development of this system as it progresses
west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

In your studies of waves is their anything in particular or a signature of the waves that you can tell if they maybe one that could develop even before they leave Africa? Also how much does SAL come into play and can SAL be accurately forecast?

[CyclonicFury]

00z GFS continues to develop this into a weak, short-lived Lee. If this develops it would most likely be very weak and be no threat to land.

[BYG Jacob]

00z GFS continues to develop this into a weak, short-lived Lee. If this develops it would most likely be very weak and be no threat to land.

??? There's no shear or dry air, and its going to be over warm water.

[Kingarabian]

Irma and Jose have to have lead to a cold wake somewhere.

[Yellow Evan]

00z GFS continues to develop this into a weak, short-lived Lee. If this develops it would most likely be very weak and be no threat to land.

??? There's no shear or dry air, and its going to be over warm water.

GFS takes this north OTS almost instantly though.

[BYG Jacob]

00z GFS continues to develop this into a weak, short-lived Lee. If this develops it would most likely be very weak and be no threat to land.

??? There's no shear or dry air, and its going to be over warm water.

GFS takes this north OTS almost instantly though.

I really see no reason to trust the GFS.

[BYG Jacob]

Irma and Jose have to have lead to a cold wake somewhere.

This just came off the coast of Africa, whatever cool water they up-welled will be replaced by the time this gets over there.

[bob rulz]

Classic Cape Verde train. Very impressive.

What is a good link to satellite in this part of the basin? I used to have it but lost it a while ago.

[CyclonicFury]

UP TO 20/40 at 2PM

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Irma, located near the northern coast of central Cuba, and on
Hurricane Jose, located just northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory
on the remnants of Katia, which has dissipated over eastern Mexico.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands has
become somewhat better organized today. Environmental conditions
are expected to support at least some additional development, and a
tropical depression could form in a few days while the system moves
generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Extratropical94]

8pm was 30/50

2am now is 30/60

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[BYG Jacob]

8pm was 30/50

2am now is 30/60

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands
continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves generally northwestward over the eastern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Called it.

[bob rulz]

Invest soon?

[BYG Jacob]

Invest soon?

There's no real organized convection yet for it to be a disturbance yet.

[BYG Jacob]

This is having real issues trying to organize convection.

[BYG Jacob]

I keep checking every once and a while to look for any kind of organized convection and just can't find any. The environment is still really favorable, do waves just take a long time to organize?