How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

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How many systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

Poll ended at Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:16 am

One more
3
3%
Two more
5
6%
Three more
8
9%
Four more
11
12%
Five more
14
16%
Six more
21
23%
Seven more
12
13%
Eigyt more
8
9%
Nine more
3
3%
Ten or more
5
6%
 
Total votes: 90

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cycloneye
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How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:16 am

I say 5 more.
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Poll will run until September 30th at 10:16 AM EDT so there is plenty of time for the voting to take place.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#2 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:17 am

4 more; 3 hurricanes, including 1 major hurricane. Out of these 4, 1 is in SEP, 2 in OCT, and 1 in NOV.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#3 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:21 am

we're in a la niña. We're also only just pat the half way point. 7 more, possibly more. October should be quite active
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#4 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:23 am

I picked 6 just because. :) I really have no clue.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:55 am

Going to say 5-6 more. Don't think this season is done yet.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#6 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:00 pm

I agree. I went with 8 more.

Alyono wrote:we're in a la niña. We're also only just pat the half way point. 7 more, possibly more. October should be quite active
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#7 Postby CFLHurricane » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:05 pm

Eigyt more.

Three in September, four in October, and one in November.

Two will be majors, and one more CONUS landfall (any category).
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#8 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:50 pm

I'm going with 6 more....well into November too. Western Caribbean October major.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#9 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:22 am

I went with 7 (maybe more), with the equatorial Pacific looking like it is heading straight back into decent La Niña territory I have a bad feeling about how the next 2-½ months may go. Don't let your guard down!
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#10 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:23 pm

I say 6. 17 storms for 2017. :)
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#11 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:40 pm

Alyono wrote:we're in a la niña. We're also only just pat the half way point. 7 more, possibly more. October should be quite active


Yup. I would not be surprised to see at least 7 more before the end of this year given the way things look for October and La Nina. I think November will have 2-3 named storms as well.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#12 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:44 pm

I would not be surprised if Florida ends up getting hit again but from the south this time from something in the Caribbean, particularly the Western Caribbean in October.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#13 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:34 pm

and some bad news for the Caribbean. In a la niña, most of the big hits occur AFTER this date. Take 1996 (Lili) 1998 (Georges and Mitch), 1999 (Jose and Lenny), the near niñas of 2001 (Iris and Michelle) and 2005 (Stan, Wilma, Alpha, Beta, Gamma), 2010 (Matthew, Nana, Richard and Tomas), and 2016 (Matthew and Otto). Only niña in recent years where the worst hits came earlier was 2007 and even then, they had over 200 die after this date (Noel and Olga)
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:34 am

8 more (including 14/Lee). Right now my season total guess is 19 storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 majors based on the pace things are going.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#15 Postby Dean_175 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:45 pm

For the season total- 15 would likely be the absolute lower limit. I think we will see 17 or 18 for 2017 --provided that TD 14 and the invest in the Atlantic both become named storms(pushing the number to 13). 19 or 20 is probably the absolute upper limit in what we could see. We are behind every year that has had 19 or more named storms (except 1887).

Being active up to this point does not necessarily mean it will continue in October. Many years have months that are more active than normal along with months that are less active. Last year we had about the same number form by this date--but only one storm formed in October. If we have average(for the era since 1995) to above average activity in October , we could see easily reach 17 or 18.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#16 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:24 pm

We could easily be through Nate by next week (the wave over Africa being Nate). With a transition towards La Nina this fall looking more likely, I'm starting to think Greek letters are a possibility. Nate would make 14, leaving only 7 names. It probably won't happen (Greek letters), but it is incredible to think 2017 could go down as one of the most active seasons on record after people were comparing it to 2013 only four weeks ago. :lol:
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#17 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:24 pm

RL3AO wrote:We could easily be through Nate by next week (the wave over Africa being Nate). With a transition towards La Nina this fall looking more likely, I'm starting to think Greek letters are a possibility. Nate would make 14, leaving only 7 names. It probably won't happen (Greek letters), but it is incredible to think 2017 could go down as one of the most active seasons on record after people were comparing it to 2013 only four weeks ago. :lol:


hey, at least I was saying an ACTIVE version of 2013, LOL

Like the PDO crash last year, the sudden la niña caught me by surprise
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#18 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:08 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:We could easily be through Nate by next week (the wave over Africa being Nate). With a transition towards La Nina this fall looking more likely, I'm starting to think Greek letters are a possibility. Nate would make 14, leaving only 7 names. It probably won't happen (Greek letters), but it is incredible to think 2017 could go down as one of the most active seasons on record after people were comparing it to 2013 only four weeks ago. :lol:


hey, at least I was saying an ACTIVE version of 2013, LOL

Like the PDO crash last year, the sudden la niña caught me by surprise


Have you seen any recent EC 30-day pressure and precip anomalies? I haven't and was wondering if they were noncommittal or if they showed any strong anomalies.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#19 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:06 am

Steve wrote:
Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:We could easily be through Nate by next week (the wave over Africa being Nate). With a transition towards La Nina this fall looking more likely, I'm starting to think Greek letters are a possibility. Nate would make 14, leaving only 7 names. It probably won't happen (Greek letters), but it is incredible to think 2017 could go down as one of the most active seasons on record after people were comparing it to 2013 only four weeks ago. :lol:


hey, at least I was saying an ACTIVE version of 2013, LOL

Like the PDO crash last year, the sudden la niña caught me by surprise


Have you seen any recent EC 30-day pressure and precip anomalies? I haven't and was wondering if they were noncommittal or if they showed any strong anomalies.


have not even had the chance to look. Been too busy with the brutality that is the 2017 hurricane season
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#20 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:41 pm

I hear you. Since they went full on pay, it's hard to find their monthly outputs except to randomly run across them. Somebody's got em somewhere. EC failed on ENSO, but I'd guess it would be better on a macro level with a 30 day.
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