How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

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How many systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

Poll ended at Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:16 am

One more
3
3%
Two more
5
6%
Three more
8
9%
Four more
11
12%
Five more
14
16%
Six more
21
23%
Seven more
12
13%
Eigyt more
8
9%
Nine more
3
3%
Ten or more
5
6%
 
Total votes: 90

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chaser1
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#21 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 23, 2017 5:38 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:We could easily be through Nate by next week (the wave over Africa being Nate). With a transition towards La Nina this fall looking more likely, I'm starting to think Greek letters are a possibility. Nate would make 14, leaving only 7 names. It probably won't happen (Greek letters), but it is incredible to think 2017 could go down as one of the most active seasons on record after people were comparing it to 2013 only four weeks ago. :lol:


hey, at least I was saying an ACTIVE version of 2013, LOL

Like the PDO crash last year, the sudden la niña caught me by surprise


La Nina would truly have caught most people by surprise. I anticipated a nasty and busy season but anticipated a fully neutral ENSO. In spite of ENSO however, if I remember correctly your pre-season forecast also predicted this year to be quite robust and active
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#22 Postby robbielyn » Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:03 am

gatorcane wrote:I would not be surprised if Florida ends up getting hit again but from the south this time from something in the Caribbean, particularly the Western Caribbean in October.

hush your mouth Gatorcane :lol:
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#23 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:09 pm

robbielyn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I would not be surprised if Florida ends up getting hit again but from the south this time from something in the Caribbean, particularly the Western Caribbean in October.

hush your mouth Gatorcane :lol:


I'm even thinking that Florida may well see two more landfalls. Having said that however, "Nate" might be borne out of the area presently being watched south of Cuba which the models are beginning to project may well spin up a small meso-cane style storm east of Daytona Beach/Vero Beach area. Hopefully this won't amount to anything very significant and become no more robust than a T.S. Ophelia looks to be on Nate's heals if the GFS and Euro models continue to hint later term development. This appears to be an altogether different breed of monsoonal low that might form. Though far far larger (if it forms), I think its broad size might prevent it from becoming overly strong. I'm thinking that this systems will trudge more Northwest to NNW and potentially impact areas in the West to North Central Gulf and not directly landfall in Florida. My guess is that another Florida risk might be in the more classic mid-October south of Cuba origin; perhaps a small to medium sized Cat. 1 or Cat 2 system that steers northward and then NNE ahead of a dropping CONUS short wave into the west/central Gulf.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#24 Postby robbielyn » Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:08 pm

chaser1 wrote:
robbielyn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I would not be surprised if Florida ends up getting hit again but from the south this time from something in the Caribbean, particularly the Western Caribbean in October.

hush your mouth Gatorcane :lol:


I'm even thinking that Florida may well see two more landfalls. Having said that however, "Nate" might be borne out of the area presently being watched south of Cuba which the models are beginning to project may well spin up a small meso-cane style storm east of Daytona Beach/Vero Beach area. Hopefully this won't amount to anything very significant and become no more robust than a T.S. Ophelia looks to be on Nate's heals if the GFS and Euro models continue to hint later term development. This appears to be an altogether different breed of monsoonal low that might form. Though far far larger (if it forms), I think its broad size might prevent it from becoming overly strong. I'm thinking that this systems will trudge more Northwest to NNW and potentially impact areas in the West to North Central Gulf and not directly landfall in Florida. My guess is that another Florida risk might be in the more classic mid-October south of Cuba origin; perhaps a small to medium sized Cat. 1 or Cat 2 system that steers northward and then NNE ahead of a dropping CONUS short wave into the west/central Gulf.

Ok u hush too lol. i'm going to ft myers beach oct 14-21st so no storms that week. come to think of it leave florida alone we want to share the love if we must. alabama hasn't had one in a while. i have nothing against Alabama. :P
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#25 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:57 pm

i dont see 7 more most 3 or 4
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:00 am

This season is a quality over quantity year, yet I see an abundance of named storms occurring before 2017 (not just the season) ends. I'm seeing five/six more to be named, four more hurricanes and three of those becoming majors with an ACE index surpassing both 2005 and 1933, despite having lesser storms. Even if the season were to end immediately, the 2017 NAtl hurricane season would be a hyperactive season with historic levels of activity.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#27 Postby Dean_175 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:53 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:This season is a quality over quantity year, yet I see an abundance of named storms occurring before 2017 (not just the season) ends. I'm seeing five/six more to be named, four more hurricanes and three of those becoming majors with an ACE index surpassing both 2005 and 1933, despite having lesser storms. Even if the season were to end immediately, the 2017 NAtl hurricane season would be a hyperactive season with historic levels of activity.


Welcome back to storm2k - haven't seen you in a while. I am thinking we will see maybe three to four more names (not counting invest 99L if it develops), a couple hurricanes and maybe one more major.

This season has been interesting. I was surprised there was no real talk here of a potential active season this year with the Atlantic being as warm as it is (and was pre-season). That is likely because of the possibility of El Nino and the fact that many believed the active era to be over.
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Re: How many more systems will develop during the rest of the Atlantic Season?

#28 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:35 pm

The correct number ended up being six.

Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
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