When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

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When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

Poll ended at Fri Sep 29, 2017 11:43 am

September
0
No votes
October
1
4%
November 1st - 15th
2
9%
November 16th - 30th
10
43%
December 1st - 15th
8
35%
December 16th - 31st
2
9%
Next year!
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 23

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When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:32 am

I think this season could have a post-season surprise in early December. Guessing the December 1-10 timeframe.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#2 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:34 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think this season could have a post-season surprise in early December. Guessing the December 1-10 timeframe.


I was actually thinking it might go all the way to Christmas this year.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:36 am

Blinhart wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think this season could have a post-season surprise in early December. Guessing the December 1-10 timeframe.


I was actually thinking it might go all the way to Christmas this year.

This doesn't seem like a year that will end early with a rapidly developing La Niña. Many seasons with hyperactive ACE (such as 1998, 2003, 2004 and 2005) had a storm form in or last into December. I think November will likely have a storm or two as well.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#4 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:43 am

Poll created
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:49 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think this season could have a post-season surprise in early December. Guessing the December 1-10 timeframe.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#6 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:30 pm

At this rate, we could finish the alphabet.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#7 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:43 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:At this rate, we could finish the alphabet.

Getting to the Greeks would be quite difficult - we would need 9 more named storms for that and I don't think we will see quite that many.

I think we'll see the year end around Rina or Sean, with a high-latitude storm that transitions from an upper-level low or extratropical cyclone into a subtropical/tropical cyclone. With a La Niña you also have to watch the Caribbean as late as early December.

Either way, 2017 is going to end up as a very active season regardless of when the final named storm dissipates.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:13 am

Well, it looks like Ophelia is going to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later today, but it's not likely to be the last storm of the season. While the window for U.S. impacts is likely closing soon, the season as a whole is far from over, even though we're likely exiting the peak period.

Just thought I'd post this for reference. Hyperactive-ACE Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950 and the date of the dissipation of the final storm. All but one of these seasons have had a storm form in or last into November. Four of them had activity after November 30, all since 1995.
1950 - November 12
1955 - October 19
1961 - November 8
1969 - November 25
1995 - November 1
1996 - November 26
1998 - December 1
1999 - November 23
2003 - December 11
2004 - December 3
2005 - January 6 (2006)
2010 - November 7
2017 - ???
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#9 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:15 am

Bumping due to this being discussed a lot on other forums. Honestly, I would be quite surprised if we don’t see Philippe this year. It’s been a very active season, it’s not an El Niño year and we aren’t even at the date of the average final storm’s dissipation yet. There’s always a chance that even if November passes by without any activity at all, we could see a random post-season storm in December. Both 2004 and 2016 had long late-season lulls before the Atlantic came back to produce one more storm (both were named Otto, ironically).
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#10 Postby OiOya » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:47 am

Well, this year has had a lot of comparisons to 2005's nightmare festival. Rightfully and sadly so.

I wouldn't be surprised if our end is in January just like that time. I'm hoping it ends in November, as it should. That's my guess, but I'm being optimistic.
After Harvey through Ophelia, I know you can't expect normal this year!
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#11 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:55 am

I'm thinking October 15th - Ophelia. I don't think it's too likely that 93L will be named, and that would mean the season is probably over.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#12 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:35 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking October 15th - Ophelia. I don't think it's too likely that 93L will be named, and that would mean the season is probably over.
If we do not get any more named storms after this (I still think we could), then this would be the earliest end since 2006. October 15 would be a very early end date for a non-El Niño season. I think we are likely done with strong storms at this point but you can’t rule out a random subtropics system developing into a SS/TS at some point in November or even December.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:14 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm thinking October 15th - Ophelia. I don't think it's too likely that 93L will be named, and that would mean the season is probably over.


If we do not get any more named storms after this (I still think we could), then this would be the earliest end since 2006. October 15 would be a very early end date for a non-El Niño season. I think we are likely done with strong storms at this point but you can’t rule out a random subtropics system developing into a SS/TS at some point in November or even December.


I didn't say that I was ruling out the chance of an additional storm. Of course, that's possible. Most likely well out to sea north of the Caribbean and/or east of the U.S. I just think that there's a good chance we've seen the last named storm for the season.
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Re: When do you think we will see the last named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season dissipate?

#14 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 27, 2017 11:09 am

I think the shift from very conducive conditions in September to rather hostile shear/subsidence in the deep tropics in October (with a much less active late season) makes this season one of the strangest non-El Niño seasons on record. Despite being seventh in terms of ACE since 1851, virtually all of the ACE-worthy activity occurred in a month or less. Virtually all of the other top-ten ACE years featured hurricanes in the deep tropics in October. Not so for this season. I think that alone is an indicator that we are not exactly in a traditional +AMO, since more than half of this year's hurricanes and majors occurred outside the deep tropics. Only Irma, Jose, and Maria were the exceptions, reaching (major) hurricane status in the MDR. The others, including Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Lee, and Ophelia, attained hurricane status outside the MDR. A typical +AMO year would feature net hurricane activity in the MDR or Caribbean. Despite this year's hyperactive stature, the general weighting of hurricanes to the subtropics or Gulf of Mexico is more similar to 2012 (or even 2005) than to 2004, 1933, etc. What makes this season even odder is that it reached a level of activity (ACE) that other top years reached only by having most of their hurricanes in the deep tropics. 2005 was actually a bit similar in that regard, with most of its hurricanes weighted to the subtropics and Gulf vs. the MDR and Caribbean. Aside from the stint of very conducive conditions from late August to late September (roughly from Harvey to Maria), the rest of the season has actually been average or even hostile. Perhaps this year was a fluke and we are still in a generally hostile period for hurricane activity in the deep tropics. We just happened to get a brief combination of factors that aligned to generate a huge peak season, and that defined the entire year, unfortunately. Perhaps next season will revert to the less active trend with fewer landfalls. We shall see.

Here are several +AMO years and how they stack up to 2017.

YEAR..................................TOTALS...................# H(s) attained in the MDR / Caribbean
1878 (track map): 12 NS / 10 H / 2 MH — 5
1886 (track map): 12 NS / 10 H / 4 MH — 5
1893 (track map): 12 NS / 10 H / 5 MH — 7
1899 (track map): 10 NS / 5 H / 2 MH — 5
1926 (track map): 11 NS / 8 H / 6 MH — 4
1933 (track map): 20 NS / 11 H / 6 MH — 9
1958 (track map): 12 NS / 7 H / 3 MH — 4
1995 (track map): 19 NS / 11 H / 5 MH — 7
1996 (track map): 13 NS / 9 H / 6 MH — 9
1999 (track map): 12 NS / 8 H / 5 MH — 4
2004 (track map): 15 NS / 9 H / 6 MH — 6

2017 (track map): 15 NS / 10 H / 6 MH — 3

Most of the years saw more than half of their hurricanes develop in the MDR and/or Caribbean, and in each case (except this year!) at least half of them did so.
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