Area from NW Caribbean across Cuba to the Bahamas (now INVEST 99L)

[WeatherEmperor]

There should be a separate thread for the BOC. Instead of the combination of the two thread. imo

The other thread is locked, there's nothing there other than a long range model prediction IMO. In the short term, the disturbed weather appears to be what the GFS models to move north over Cuba and near Florida.

I was thinking that THIS was the thread that should be locked, as it is discussing the feature in the NW Caribbean as it moves to east of Florida this weekend. The disturbance is currently in the NW Caribbean not east of Florida.

Perhaps re-name this thread to something like "Expected Development off the east coast of Florida" ??

[tolakram]

I used NHC wording.

Area from NW Caribbean across Cuba to the Bahamas

That should cover it. Threads will be merged with the older thread getting the credits. Hopefully that makes everyone happy.

[1900hurricane]

There are two separate areas. The one I'm interested in is circled in red, which is slowly coalescing into a Central American Gyre. The other area, circled in black, is the one currently mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles aren’t too excited with how intense the future Western Caribbean system may become.

[Dean4Storms]

Do you have a link to the ensambles?

No, I look at them through the Weatherbell.com pay site.

[otowntiger]

00z EPS (Euro) Ensembles aren’t too excited with how intense the future Western Caribbean system may become.

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zclezc.jpg

That is a surprise given the untapped heat content and supposed low shear, unless the shear forecast has changed? But this would be good news as certainly no one needs a significant storm ever, but especially since so many areas have been battered this season.

[Alyono]

EC has a large upper trough over most of the Gulf. Southerly shear over the Caribbean system

[otowntiger]

EC has a large upper trough over most of the Gulf. Southerly shear over the Caribbean system

ok, so there you go. So maybe the hoopla will be for naught.

[karenfromheaven]

Ya'll can have it. The eyewall of Irma came through Collier and East Lee. Lee and Collier County are done up. Some places are still flooded. Other places are dried out. My area in NW Lehigh Acres is soggy. I got 4 inches of rain this week. I am over it. If Mother Nature could send us all some low 80s Fall weather, that'd be great.

Just south of you in Lehigh. Spent an hour behind plywood sheets trying to keep the front door shut against Irma's eyewall. Then 7 days without cell, and 12 days without power. I'm so over it.

[SFLcane]

EC has a large upper trough over most of the Gulf. Southerly shear over the Caribbean system

So much for those favorable conditions most predicted.

[Alyono]

EC has a large upper trough over most of the Gulf. Southerly shear over the Caribbean system

So much for those favorable conditions most predicted.

favorable enough to allow development into a tropical storm, however

[CrazyC83]

I know it is a terrible tropical model, but the high-resolution NAM can be decent at quick-spinners - and it forms Tropical Storm Nate off the east coast this weekend, 999mb at the end of the run.

[AdamFirst]

12Z GFS develops a weak reflection offshore St. Augustine-Jacksonville Beach in 48 hours (1007 mb lowest pressure according to TT plots), easing in the center on shore a day later over Flagler County.

Broad low pressure begins to develop around Day 7-8 coming off of Nicaragua & Honduras. Looks to be an extremely complicated set up.

NWS Melbourne alludes to an extended period of unsettled weather due to a strong onshore flow, bringing windy conditions and constant scattered showers & possible thunderstorms.

Monday-Thursday...Weather pattern for most of next week will be
dominated by a strong mid level ridge which will develops and build
from the northern GOMEX NE through New England. This in turn will
support a strong autumnal surface high pressure ridge covering the
eastern half of the country and western Atlantic. Strong ENE to
easterly gradient flow will produce an extended period of breezy to
windy conditions along with showery weather, and low prospects for
thunderstorm, with gusty/squally type weather much more prevalent.
Rain chances will remain in the 40-50 percent range through the
period with below normal max temps in the M80s along the coast and
U80s inland, with above normal mins, in the M70s inland to U70s
along the coast.

[AdamFirst]

12z GFS 210hr - Approximately 9 days out

[AdamFirst]

A messy track for peninsular Florida, with a strengthening storm (possible hurricane) paralleling the west coast with center impact in the Big Bend area.

[cjrciadt]

A messy track for peninsular Florida, with a strengthening storm (possible hurricane) paralleling the west coast with center impact in the Big Bend area.

Ugh. Every wobble will change the potentail impact, at least I have tons of supples stocked in the closet.

[SouthDadeFish]

The long-range GFS looks to be a case of the GFS being unable to properly handle convection within the monsoon gyre. I'm skeptical of the 12Z solution.

[toad strangler]

The long-range GFS looks to be a case of the GFS being unable to properly handle convection within the monsoon gyre. I'm skeptical of the 12Z solution.

Yes and I have been skeptical of all modeling IRT this gyre.

[gatorcane]

One difference between the ECMWF and GFS is that the ECMWF is developing the wave over the Southern Lesser Antilles in the Western Caribbean. The GFS is not but instead developing something out of a monsoon gyre north of Panama.

Either way both cases yield a similar track which is slowly north into the NW Caribbean which is climatologically favored for October.

[TheStormExpert]

Is this thread for the area being highlighted by the NHC now or the area being shown in days 8-10 by the models?