Area from NW Caribbean across Cuba to the Bahamas (now INVEST 99L)

[floridasun78]

i got feeling this likely see only rain system maybe td most i see alot shear in area unless drop quick

[AJC3]

The synoptic setup brings back to mind Invest 93L, a hybrid low that developed near the northern Bahamas the morning of October 9, 2011, then moved north and northwest, moving onshore that evening near Cape Canaveral. It produced sustained winds in the 50 to 60 MPH range with gusts of 70-80MPH+ in Brevard and Volusia Counties, on its northern and western sides, especially around and offshore the Cape. Granted, there are differences, the main one being that the Florida east coast was buffeted by strong easterlies for days prior to the onset of the event, however, like in 2011, the genesis of this low will be baroclinic (non-tropical), given the position of the H25 low west of Florida, and the resultant jet forcing that will be occurring on it's eastern flank over the next 2-3 days.

93L thread from 2011...
viewtopic.php?t=112053

[joey]

nhc now at 20/40

[joey]

NHC now at 20/40

[northjaxpro]

NHC now at 20/40

Yeah, I actually thought the percentages would have been a bit higher by NHC given the model support.

Latest 0Z GFS run shows the system a bit stronger, as the Low Pressure develops first near Cape Canaveral around 6Z Saturday morning, then moves north parallel the Florida East Coast, then moves northeast to about 100 miles east of Jacksonville by 18Z Sunday afternoon at 1002 mb, which would definitely support a moderate strength TS or STS in this situation. The Low /Hybrid then moves back westward, making landfall on Jacksonville Beach by 0Z Sunday evening.

2 takeaways from the 0Z GFS run:

a. The system is a bit stronger and farthest north and east on this run, before High Pressure traps the feature and steers it back to the west during the day Sunday.

b. The front will be arriving from the north just as the Low Pressure area moves northeast off the NE Florida coast. It will be interesting to see if this will be a fully tropical system or will it be sub-tropical in nature.

Either way, looks to be a wet and windy day Sunday into Sunday evening here across the Jacksonville area and Northeast Florida.

More later.....

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability

[N2FSU]

[gatorcane]

Looks like overall the overnight models have shifted more east with the long-range development out of the NW Caribbean which would be closer to climo for October. Looking at specific tracks this far out is less useful than looking at the ensemble forecasts and trends.

For example most of the 06Z GFS ensembles are in the NW Caribbean south of Cuba heading north:



While the EPS (Euro ensembles) are similar heading north:

[SouthDadeFish]

nhc now at 20/40

The NHC is currently highlighting a separate disturbance than the one being described in this thread. The disturbance the NHC is mentioning may form as a result of interaction with an upper-level low, while the disturbance in this thread will potentially form from a monsoonal gyre in a time frame beyond five days.

[tropicwatch]

The Bay of Campeche disturbance and the western Caribbean disturbance are two separate area's of interest. Why are they together on one board?

[gatorcane]

Furthermore the catalyst for development appears to be the tropical wave over the Southern Lesser Antilles. You can see it flaring up this morning. This wave should move through the Caribbean and into the Western Caribbean over the next 5 days. Once in the Western Caribbean, development chances increase:

[blp]

The THCP is off the charts this year. Compare that to pre Wilma. The only good news might be if it struggles because of how broad the Gyre is being modeled but if it consolidates watch out.

Current:


Pre-Wilma Oct 16 2015

[wxman57]

There isn't much doubt that some kind of low will develop. The NHC is pretty much estimating the chances that they will call it a depression/storm.

By the way, why are there two threads on this feature? This is the same feature that the NHC has identified in the NW Caribbean.

[tropicwatch]

There should be a separate thread for the BOC. Instead of the combination of the two thread. imo

[Pearl River]

This from Slidell in this morning's AFD:

After Wednesday next week the models really struggle with how to
handle activity in the Gulf and Caribbean. As mentioned in previous
discussion we will continue to monitor the tropics with numerous
models suggesting the possibility of something trying to develop.
This is still more than 7 days out and nothing is even remotely
close to developing right now but I`m bringing this up because if
something does late next week it will be more home grown and thus
less lead time. /CAB/

[tolakram]

GFS

[wxman57]

There should be a separate thread for the BOC. Instead of the combination of the two thread. imo

The other thread is locked, there's nothing there other than a long range model prediction IMO. In the short term, the disturbed weather appears to be what the GFS models to move north over Cuba and near Florida.

I was thinking that THIS was the thread that should be locked, as it is discussing the feature in the NW Caribbean as it moves to east of Florida this weekend. The disturbance is currently in the NW Caribbean not east of Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

The ECM nor most of its Ensembles are all that excited about this system so the GFS is mostly on its own here with the depth of development.

The ECM EPS seems to be more excited with the NW Carib. then into the Gulf at a later date 4th thru 10th.

[boca]

Do you have a link to the ensambles?