Area from NW Caribbean across Cuba to the Bahamas (now INVEST 99L)

[Stormcenter]

This has not been a normal hurricane season so everything is thrown out the window in reference climatology IMO.

It's hard to believe the wide and expansive ridge over the CONUS that the global models are showing in the long-range with no cold front in sight. That looks nothing like this time of year.

Usually the troughs that make it down to the Gulf Coast dont start showing until mid to late of October. That kind of pattern would shunt most tropical cyclones NE towards Cuba or Florida. Having strong ridging in early October does happen.


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[WeatherEmperor]

This has not been a normal hurricane season so everything is thrown out the window in reference climatology IMO.

It's hard to believe the wide and expansive ridge over the CONUS that the global models are showing in the long-range with no cold front in sight. That looks nothing like this time of year.

Usually the troughs that make it down to the Gulf Coast dont start showing until mid to late of October. That kind of pattern would shunt most tropical cyclones NE towards Cuba or Florida. Having strong ridging in early October does happen.


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Are you buying what the Euro shows in terms of having enough ridging to push this into the Central Gulf as indicated at the end of the run?


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[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles with a wide range of solutions in the long range:

[Taffy]

Wxman how much rain for S Fl?

You're gonna need to know a guy named Noah

ImmagonnahavetogiveHimacallthen.

[WeatherGuesser]

Is this the one showing a yellow X, 10/20?

[Wx_Warrior]

James Spann tweeted that "the pattern favors some mischief there; GFS on it as well."

[Stormcenter]

Excerpt from the NWS New Orleans, LA office afternoon Sept. 27, 2017 discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
413 PM CDT Wed Sep 27 2017


Heading into the mid to late next week we will continue to monitor
the tropics as there are indications that activity may begin to try
to develop a little closer to home. Not saying anything is suggesting
impacts just that we are still in hurricane season and as always
should continue to stay vigilant. /Cab/

[SFLcane]

Hmmm tad confusing nhc has yellow x this afternoon in the Caribbean but apparently its not what the models are developing?

[johngaltfla]

Wxman how much rain for S Fl?

Euro indicates widespread 2-4 inches across the southern third of the Peninsula by Tuesday. Not a whole lot, relatively. Higher amounts up around Cape Canaveral (4-6 inches).

So in my locale, we're about 20 inches over normal for the year. Just what we need. Ugh.

[blp]

Hmmm tad confusing nhc has yellow x this afternoon in the Caribbean but apparently its not what the models are developing?

The NHC is focusing on the area being discussed in below thread that is forecast to develop east of Florida in three days

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119260

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ensembles with a wide range of solutions in the long range:

Further to this: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 16 hurricanes from the 50 members or 32% of them, which is 3 more than any previous run! Also, keep in mind that the EPS members are supposedly run at a lower resolution than the operational meaning SLPs can easily be underdone. Of these 16, 5 hit western FL (Panhandle to Keys/Naples) 10/7-12, 1 hits S TX 10/6, and 1 hits eastern Long Island, NY 10/8.

[blp]

12Z Euro ensembles with a wide range of solutions in the long range:

Further to this: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 16 hurricanes from the 50 members or 32% of them, which is 3 more than any previous run! Also, keep in mind that the EPS members are supposedly run at a lower resolution than the operational meaning SLPs can easily be underdone. Of these 16, 5 hit western FL (Panhandle to Keys/Naples) 10/7-12, 1 hits S TX 10/6, and 1 hits eastern Long Island, NY 10/8.

Thanks for providing that. What do other 9 ensembles show?

[LarryWx]

Interestingly, the 18Z GFS is the strongest GFS run yet with 1007 mb on the low res at strongest (E of NE FL) and also the furthest north, 125 miles E of St. Augustine on Saturday afternoon. As a result, the heaviest rain associated with it has shifted north to the SAV-JAX corridor (over 2") and the strongest winds are more extensive/further north with 30-40 knots just offshore of Georgetown, SC, to St. Augustine, FL from noon Saturday til early afternoon Sunday, when the low moves back into FL near Daytona. Note that this is a good bit further north than earlier runs, which brought it back in anywhere from south of Melbourne to West Palm. Northjax and other NE FL folks are probably getting more interested in this as I am further north. The trend today is increasing the threat for those areas.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ensembles with a wide range of solutions in the long range:

Further to this: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 16 hurricanes from the 50 members or 32% of them, which is 3 more than any previous run! Also, keep in mind that the EPS members are supposedly run at a lower resolution than the operational meaning SLPs can easily be underdone. Of these 16, 5 hit western FL (Panhandle to Keys/Naples) 10/7-12, 1 hits S TX 10/6, and 1 hits eastern Long Island, NY 10/8.

Thanks for providing that. What do other 9 ensembles show?

YW. Other 9:
1. Hit AL 10/8 after weakens to a TS
2. Hit MX (south of Bay of Campeche) as a H on 10/11.
3. Hit MX (just S of Brownsville) 10/11 after weakens to a TS.
4-6. These three are near W Cuba moving very slowly westward after hitting W Cuba between 10/9 and 10/11 and could threaten anywhere in the Gulf later.
7-9. These three pass safely off the US east coast moving NE and out to sea. One of these 3 just missed hitting Miami area while a H.

[northjaxpro]

Interestingly, the 18Z GFS is the strongest GFS run yet with 1007 mb on the low res at strongest (E of NE FL) and also the furthest north, 125 miles E of St. Augustine on Saturday afternoon. As a result, the heaviest rain associated with it has shifted north to the SAV-JAX corridor (over 2") and the strongest winds are more extensive/further north with 30-40 knots just offshore of Georgetown, SC, to St. Augustine, FL from noon Saturday til early afternoon Sunday, when the low moves back into FL near Daytona. Note that this is a good bit further north than earlier runs, which brought it back in anywhere from south of Melbourne to West Palm. Northjax and other NE FL folks are probably getting more interested in this as I am further north. The trend today is increasing the threat for those areas.

Yeah Larry I just saw the 18Z GFS run. It is quite interesting and if that run verifies, it would set up to be a very wet and windy day here Sunday in Jax for sure. They started pickup of debris all throughout town today from Irma. They better expedite this process as we will get potential of gale/storm force winds in the region late Saturday into Sunday. Watching it very closely!

[gatorcane]

Weak 850mb vorticity has developed just south of Cuba as predicted by the GFS:

[BYG Jacob]

Weak 850mb vorticity has developed just south of Cuba as predicted by the GFS:

Is there an LLC yet?

[JaxGator]

Interestingly, the 18Z GFS is the strongest GFS run yet with 1007 mb on the low res at strongest (E of NE FL) and also the furthest north, 125 miles E of St. Augustine on Saturday afternoon. As a result, the heaviest rain associated with it has shifted north to the SAV-JAX corridor (over 2") and the strongest winds are more extensive/further north with 30-40 knots just offshore of Georgetown, SC, to St. Augustine, FL from noon Saturday til early afternoon Sunday, when the low moves back into FL near Daytona. Note that this is a good bit further north than earlier runs, which brought it back in anywhere from south of Melbourne to West Palm. Northjax and other NE FL folks are probably getting more interested in this as I am further north. The trend today is increasing the threat for those areas.

Yeah Larry I just saw the 18Z GFS run. It is quite interesting and if that run verifies, it would set up to be a very wet and windy day here Sunday in Jax for sure. They started pickup of debris all throughout town today from Irma. They better expedite this process as we will get potential of gale/storm force winds in the region late Saturday into Sunday. Watching it very closely!

Watching it here closey too. It's been taking awhile for St. John's County in collecting debris too. They didn't get to my neighborhood till last Friday. A lot of debris was collected, but not all of it (including mine), so I hoping yard trash can pick it up. Jax and Florida have been semi-fortunate with the current dry pattern that's been in place since Irma left (except for the heat, but the state atm doesn't need another wind or rain maker. If anything forms out of this (Nor' Easter or named storm), it hopefully won't be a storm that catches people by surprise like Emily, though it was a weak TS. However, with Harvey, Irma and Maria, I bet more folks are paying attention.

[Taffy]

Ya'll can have it. The eyewall of Irma came through Collier and East Lee. Lee and Collier County are done up. Some places are still flooded. Other places are dried out. My area in NW Lehigh Acres is soggy. I got 4 inches of rain this week. I am over it. If Mother Nature could send us all some low 80s Fall weather, that'd be great.

[floridasun78]

i think wont be tropical system like only rainy system