rickybobby wrote:wxman57 wrote:Here's the place to watch. It's moving east of the Keys now. Good rotation/vorticity. Very high chance of a low-level circulation by late tomorrow or on Saturday. Also very high chance it will be interacting with the cold front moving off the SE U.S. Coast late Saturday/Sunday. Strong high pressure to its north will mean winds near TS strength along the NE coast of Florida and into Georgia from Saturday morning through Sunday morning. I'd say near 100% chance of low formation, maybe 60% chance of 34kt (39 mph) winds. However, it may be only partly tropical in nature. Strong shear and the fact that it will likely be inland by Sunday morning will limit any strengthening.
http://wxman57.com/images/Disturbance.JPG
Do you think it could be a weak ts?
I think there's a very good chance that there will be easterly winds to 40-45 mph north of the low center (out over the water) on Saturday. The low should be just offshore Cape Canaveral by Saturday morning. This type of system (more subtropical than tropical) will not bring such winds inland, but they could impact the beaches. The strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. to its north will provide the gradient. Little significant wind south of the low. Inland winds maybe 15-25 mph. Strong shear may rip it apart as it crosses Florida on Sunday.
