Flashback: Pre-Season Analysis & Prediction (Professionals, Organizations, & S2K Members)

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chaser1
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Flashback: Pre-Season Analysis & Prediction (Professionals, Organizations, & S2K Members)

#1 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:25 pm

I just thought this would be a good place to invite banter that takes a look back at earlier views and predictions of how Professional Organizations, professional Mets, and even ourselves viewed upcoming conditions, the Climate, ENSO, or upcoming season predictions for overall tropical activity and season forecast. We commonly discuss new or updated professional organization forecasts and updated predictions just as we discuss our own, but that discussion all occurs during the moment and in live-time. I figure why not designate a thread for post analysis of both predictions and analysis previously made by others as well as create a point for discussion that compares overall margin of accuracy. Furthermore while S2K has its own yearly Hurricane Season Contest poll, there's little discussion towards the comparative accuracy of pre-season member perspective or even S2K overall averaged accuracy versus how these other professional organizations "grade out" each year or simply over time.

I was just reading in another S2K thread about an organization claiming how their (paid) service predicted this 2017 hyper-active season. Problem is, the details of their claim are amazingly being made public now, and not prior to the actual hurricane season LOL! You know what??? Seems to me that overall, an average of S2K Poll contest members seem to generally prove more accurate than most if not all seasonal prognostications. This present season did seem a bit different than most past though. People generally seemed to fall into one of two different camps. I'll call it "The El Nino camp".... and everyone else. The former of course anticipating harsh conditions to return to the Atlantic season, while others anticipating a range from an active season to a very active season.

Personally, I suggest that S2K come out with their own "paid prognostication" service that simply uses a correlated S2K Member group poll average (or a group average and then weighted by the 10 most accurately predicated members for the prior season). The prediction will likewise predict the upcoming years' total activity, number of hurricanes, T.S.'s, Major 'Canes, ACE, as well as anticipated regional zones of heightened storm track and projected risk. I think there's plenty of historical data to support the argument of a greater collective accuracy by prior year S2K Polls as compared to other professional or renown agencies and organizations. The service can be sold to Private & Commercial entities for a price that would amount to 1% of the cost that GWO charges, and additionally provide these paying customers free unfettered access to member opinion, analysis, & insights. S2K gains a boost in Internet traffic, further visibility to the worldwide amateur and professional meteorology community, and perhaps adds an additional vertical source of revenue to S2K coffers. Meanwhile, S2K poll members who participated in that years' generated Seasonal Prediction can be reciprocated by each polling member receiving a free (S2k Weather or Storm Geek?) tee shirt and special avatar indicating a new unique member group status within S2K.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



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