Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It doesn't appear to be closed off. Still a vigorous tropical wave though.

For purposes of learning- is it the shear that is preventing the tropical wave from closing off?

And the convection is due to a GOM trough interacting with a stationary front over the Bahamas?

[northjaxpro]

Levi Cowan yesterday showed the model run from Euro from Wednesday in which some piece of vorticity split off from the large axis. Early this morning, it appears that a portion of this system is drifting north along off the Southeast Florida East Coast, and the other split energy is the energy we currently see down near Key West that will move into the Gulf of Mexico. The emphasis here with Levi with pointing out that that a piece of energy that was shown on Euro to split off, one piece of vorticity which went north off the east coast of Florida, would keep that ridge of high pressure weak off the Florida Atlantic coast and that would play a huge role with regards to the eventual path of Tropical Depression 16 /future Nate.

I think that particular Euro run showing the split Energy may be taking place. It looks like there may be a piece of energy that is moving north along and off the East Coast of Florida. Should this be the case, this would have a very significant impact with future Nate later this weekend.A weakened HP ridge off the SE Atlantic coast would draw potential TC Nate more northeast with time and would likely eliminate areas from Pensacola westward from being directly impacted by the cyclone.

[EquusStorm]

Tropical or not, this is a very fascinating little feature. No doubt with shear 10-20kt weaker this trough area would have produced a tropical storm long ago.

[pavelbure224]

From Miami NWS
Radar indicates a low level vortex has been trying to close
off along this trough in the vicinity of some deep convection about
130 miles SSW of Miami. GOES-16 imagery and model soundings
indicate the trailing side of the tropical wave has considerably
more moisture and unstable air compared to the leading side.

[Aric Dunn]

[northjaxpro]

I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.

[Sciencerocks]

:uarrow: I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.

I am shocked to see that this isn't even an invest and is getting only 0% chance of formation. lol....

That circulation is awesome and very pretty.

[northjaxpro]

I have stated this a few times already, but I have been very disappointed in the handling of this feature by NHC. This should have been tagged an invest at least 24 hours ago. However, to constantly throw at the general public that this had 0% chance of development, especially considering this entity's proximity to Florida, is actually an insult to knowledgeable and experienced people who do this business in their everyday lives! Highly disappointed with NHC about this!!

[Emmett_Brown]

Took the dog out, and was surprised by the wind and rain just NE of Orlando this morning. Big gusts of wind with a fast moving band felt just below TS conditions.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I think this could well be Nate now. I really doubted that TD 16 would be Nate and i am closer to get this statement true.

[tolakram]

Not every low level swirl is a storm.

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/915854216987648000




Jim Cantore ✔@JimCantore
You can thank 40kts of shear for not letting this develop south of the Keys. Still = Enhanced rainfall/wind for FL however.
4:20 AM - Oct 5, 2017

[NotSparta]

It doesn't appear to be closed off. Still a vigorous tropical wave though.

For purposes of learning- is it the shear that is preventing the tropical wave from closing off?

And the convection is due to a GOM trough interacting with a stationary front over the Bahamas?

The shear is keeping it from developing, since it shears away the convection that helps close off the circulation

[NDG]

Hail to the new king, the GFS, and to Aric

[ronjon]

Shear seems to have relaxed somewhat from yesterday. There is a closed circulation evident on Radar. Not sure why we're not close to a TD yet. If it organizes more today with increased convection, I would say we have a TD.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=BYX&loop=yes

[kevin mathis]

Hail to the new king, the GFS, and to Aric

We can go ahead and have a sizing scheduled for Artic's new crown, but lets hold off on the GFS. I would still place the GFS in the royal court, perhaps the role of Jester is more fitting.

[NDG]

Surface reports from the Keys and western Cuba agree that the vorticity has closed at the surface.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures and winds at Key west.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[northjaxpro]

Technically, this is a tropical depression at least.

[artist]

NHC 8 am update

A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. In addition, an area of low
pressure is starting to develop near the Florida Keys. A gale
warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale force expected
through mid-day today in the Straits of Florida.