Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[Aric Dunn]

Surface reports don't lie, by now there would have been a sign of a circulation forming by surface reports.

there are insuffient surface reports ! lol

There are plenty of reporting stations south of the vorticity over Cuba, no west winds at all.

well i am not going to argue the cuba reporting sites anymore... I will mention one thing again.. being that the circ is very elongated and not expansive on the sw and south side ( yet) due to the shear... the stations over cuba are spread apart and far away to use those 2 surface obs to make any sort of justification. there is plenty of evidence ( especially now).. but hey it is what it is..

[Aric Dunn]

Central key's pressure falling ...

biscayne bay...

[Aric Dunn]

Well keywest is pretty telling..... again it's not like this will deepen but it is all about its affect on nate.. now that its closed some of the previous models runs may have been reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

if that convection persists like that.. looks like we might have a sheared TS moving through the keys in the morning....

[Evil Jeremy]

Some squally weather moving through SE FL tonight. Will probably feel like the outward feeder band of any other storm. Tomorrow's going to be a nasty weather day. Nothing fascinating, just an onslaught of tropical rain with some mild gusts. Still have to go to work, but the commute will be a nightmare.

[NDG]

It is one vigorous vorticity, that I do agree on, but I still think is not closed at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

It is one vigorous vorticity, that I do agree on, but I still think is not closed at the surface.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Ug70RRk.gif[/ig]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/H7XkE0P.gif[/ig]

well as I mentioned as it gets closer to the radar you wont have any doubts it has been there..

Also post a doppler velocity loop from keywest..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it might be trying to close off just SE of the Keys. It will be very interesting to see how it evolves over the next 12 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

and pressure continues to steadily fall......

central keys

[Sciencerocks]

Based on the organization on that radar it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this was named Nate early tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Based on the organization on that radar it wouldn't surprise me one bit if this was named Nate early tomorrow.

if the convection persists in some form overnight they will have no choice.. unless they claim do to shear it wont last long enough to be classified even though it has been classifiable for at least 12 hours..

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder what the 2am will say ?? either advisories might be needed or 0% or no mention at all.. even though we likely have a TS......


shhhhh maybe nobody will notice...

[Alyono]

nothing to see here.

[Aric Dunn]

lol

[joey]

looks like the no name wants to ride up the se fl coast and another blob moving over cuba wants to join in on the fun lots of stuff there lol

[Aric Dunn]

pressure falling faster now......

[Aric Dunn]

Key west has switched N to NNE winds and pressure falling fast.. center is south of Islamorada about 50 miles... lol a sharp trough... It is quite elongated do to the shear but not just a trough..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1

[AJC3]

It's not closed, let alone "classifiable for the last 12 hours". There is no semblance whatsoever of any low cloud elements moving from NW to SE or W to E. Pretty clear to see on radar, 3.9UM IR, in the METAR network along the north Cuban coast, scatterometer data...you name it.

That having been said, to me having a zero percent chance of development on this is a bit puzzling. Yes, it's a lot closer to zero than it is 100 percent, however, it is non-zero IMHO. A token low end (10/20, maybe 30 percent if you're a fan) chance is probably in order, given how strongly divergent the shear is over the top of it.

[Aric Dunn]

It's not closed, let alone "classifiable for the last 12 hours". There is no semblance whatsoever of any low cloud elements moving from NW to SE or W to E. Pretty clear to see on radar, 3.9UM IR, in the METAR network along the north Cuban coast, scatterometer data...you name it.

That having been said, to me having a zero percent chance of development on this is a bit puzzling. Yes, it's a lot closer to zero than it is 100 percent, however, it is non-zero IMHO. A token low end (10/20, maybe 30 percent if you're a fan) chance is probably in order, given how strongly divergent the shear is over the top of it.

Fair enough. I of course respect your pro analysis. however I have been able to track plenty of west to east low level cloud motion just extremely elongated.. more so in the last couple hours.

anyway we shall see over the next few hours..

[AJC3]

Fair enough. I of course respect your pro analysis. however I have been able to track plenty of west to east low level cloud motion. more so in the last couple hours.

anyway we shall see over the next few hours..

Even though I'm not from Missouri, "show me". I've been looking very closely at radar and 3.9UM IR imagery for several hours, and there's absolutely no convective cells or low cloud elements moving with an eastward component. Don't see it.