Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[Patrick99]

Whatever this is, it is causing significant rainfall in Miami. Is it just me, or does this feature and TD 16 all appear to be part of the same giant slab of convection stretching all the way from the northern Bahamas down to Panama?

[NDG]

A very sheared look on vis satellite this morning, L is where the small circulation is.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Well. Now with closed circulation. I think in the next advisories this would jump instantly to TS Nate without ever being an invest or even a TD, the first one of that kind in this year.

[tropicwatch]

Nate has already been taken, it would be Ophelia.

[flamingosun]

Well, whatever it is, the weather has been nearly squally, and rather tropical feeling for days around here... Our normal gentle sea breeze has been replaced with moist, gusty winds, and rain off and on all hours of the day and night, rather than typical afternoon thunder showers.
It feels like whenever 99L died out, this 'thing' stepped right in.

[Aric Dunn]

Strangest 0% tropical noname system I have ever seen... lol

[Aric Dunn]

At this point it is going to cross over passed the shear axis. Not sure if that would support convection... but i guess it worked for Lee.. so who knows..

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note.... the 06 GFS has the system moving WNW to NW from this point on.. however it is moving due west if not slightl south of west.. reason for this post.. the shear drops off in about 24 to 30 hours just north of CUBA and the Yucatan channel.. if this stays farther south it may stay around even longer greatly affecting Nate...

[flamingosun]

Levi Cowan yesterday showed the model run from Euro from Wednesday in which some piece of vorticity split off from the large axis. Early this morning, it appears that a portion of this system is drifting north along off the Southeast Florida East Coast, and the other split energy is the energy we currently see down near Key West that will move into the Gulf of Mexico. The emphasis here with Levi with pointing out that that a piece of energy that was shown on Euro to split off, one piece of vorticity which went north off the east coast of Florida, would keep that ridge of high pressure weak off the Florida Atlantic coast and that would play a huge role with regards to the eventual path of Tropical Depression 16 /future Nate.

I think that particular Euro run showing the split Energy may be taking place. It looks like there may be a piece of energy that is moving north along and off the East Coast of Florida. Should this be the case, this would have a very significant impact with future Nate later this weekend.A weakened HP ridge off the SE Atlantic coast would draw potential TC Nate more northeast with time and would likely eliminate areas from Pensacola westward from being directly impacted by the cyclone.

Aric - What do you make of the information in the above post?

[tolakram]

At this point it is going to cross over passed the shear axis. Not sure if that would support convection... but i guess it worked for Lee.. so who knows..

It needs a lot more than convection.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1-100

[Aric Dunn]

Levi Cowan yesterday showed the model run from Euro from Wednesday in which some piece of vorticity split off from the large axis. Early this morning, it appears that a portion of this system is drifting north along off the Southeast Florida East Coast, and the other split energy is the energy we currently see down near Key West that will move into the Gulf of Mexico. The emphasis here with Levi with pointing out that that a piece of energy that was shown on Euro to split off, one piece of vorticity which went north off the east coast of Florida, would keep that ridge of high pressure weak off the Florida Atlantic coast and that would play a huge role with regards to the eventual path of Tropical Depression 16 /future Nate.

I think that particular Euro run showing the split Energy may be taking place. It looks like there may be a piece of energy that is moving north along and off the East Coast of Florida. Should this be the case, this would have a very significant impact with future Nate later this weekend.A weakened HP ridge off the SE Atlantic coast would draw potential TC Nate more northeast with time and would likely eliminate areas from Pensacola westward from being directly impacted by the cyclone.

Aric - What do you make of the information in the above post?

well clearly some energy is lifting north due to the divergence and slightly lower surface pressure along with it. it will all play a role on NATE's path. but the real big factor is the Noname systems position and orginization.. it does not even have to be classified just maintain its current circulation and stay south affecting nate pulling it north

[Aric Dunn]

At this point it is going to cross over passed the shear axis. Not sure if that would support convection... but i guess it worked for Lee.. so who knows..

It needs a lot more than convection.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1-100

haha well yeah but it is closed..... that is what I was saying wondering about. if it catches up to the shear axis and passes over ( similar to what lee did when it regenerated) will there be enough low level convergence to overcome the lack of upper divergence in that region. this is of course assuming the trough/upper low does not fill in and there is something to cross over into.. lol

[northjaxpro]

Flamingosun, were you questioning the info I posted regarding Levi Cowan's video from yesterday?

The video was posted on his site Tropical Tidbits. The way you were asking Aric was seemingly to question what I posted.

Let me make one thing very clear. I absolutely would NEVER. EVER mislead anyone on this site about anything I do post on this site. Period!! I have been a member too long on this site to ever do such a thing. I take extreme offense to even the thought of this!!

[Blown Away]

Weak circulation SW of KW...

[flamingosun]

Flamingosun, were you questioning the info I posted regarding Levi Cowan's video from yesterday?

The video was posted on his site Tropical Tidbits. The way you were asking Aric was seemingly to question what I posted.

Let me make one thing very clear. I absolutely would NEVER. EVER mislead anyone on this site about anything I do post on this site. Period!! I have been a member too long on this site to ever do such a thing. I take extreme offense to even the thought of this!!

Just asking for another opinion / explanation. Guess I need to be more careful of how I phrase questions in the future... or just refrain from asking at all.
If this 'energy' might be lifting north along the E coast of FL, I wanted to learn more, since that's towards us.
Sorry if the way I asked offended you. That would never be my intention. Please accept my apology.

[northjaxpro]

I accept your sincere apology. I have great appreciation for this site and respect to all others who are regular members and visitors to Storm2K.

Thank you for coming forward to offer a very gracious apology Flamingosun!!

[EquusStorm]

Still a very interesting lil' swirl this morning. Meteorology is fascinating.

[CrazyC83]

If this system absorbs Nate and subsequently (or concurrently) forms an LLC, would it still be Nate or would it be Ophelia in that situation?

[Nimbus]

Its got some dry shear mid gulf but the SST's are high enough and there is a pressure gradient.
Tiny vort like that will probably escape notice.

[Aric Dunn]

If this system absorbs Nate and subsequently (or concurrently) forms an LLC, would it still be Nate or would it be Ophelia in that situation?

well first off it is very closed and rather expansinve now (much larger circ then yesterday. ) so it would be a seperate system to start.. if nate magically died over land and got absored then it would be the next name..

it is also heading into a more divergent upper pattern briefly so convection should come back but of course still sheared..