Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[tolakram]

2. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the
northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters.
Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures
are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more
favorable for some development next week while the system moves
toward the west-northwest. This system is expected to bring
locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

0z Euro

[LarryWx]

To clarify, this TW doesn't appear to be referring to the W. Caribbean potential, the genesis of which would appear to be still 5-7 days away, that is on most models. Instead, this is referring to an additional potential genesis just north of the Caribbean. Whereas the main op models have shown very little with this, a few EPS and GEPS members have shown this to develop around Tue-Wed of next week moving WNW underneath the big high toward the SE US.

[Hurricaneman]

To clarify, this TW doesn't appear to be referring to the W. Caribbean potential, the genesis of which would appear to be still 5-7 days away, that is on most models. Instead, this is referring to an additional potential genesis just north of the Caribbean. Whereas the main op models have shown very little with this, a few EPS and GEPS members have shown this to develop around Tue-Wed of next week moving WNW underneath the big high toward the SE US.

It looks like the southern part of this wave is the catalyst for possible Caribbean development along with the monsoon trough

[LarryWx]

To clarify, this TW doesn't appear to be referring to the W. Caribbean potential, the genesis of which would appear to be still 5-7 days away, that is on most models. Instead, this is referring to an additional potential genesis just north of the Caribbean. Whereas the main op models have shown very little with this, a few EPS and GEPS members have shown this to develop around Tue-Wed of next week moving WNW underneath the big high toward the SE US.

It looks like the southern part of this wave is the catalyst for possible Caribbean development along with the monsoon trough

Thanks for the clarification. I was just saying that Avila clearly isn't referring to the W Caribbean portion of the potential, which is pretty much a couple of days later. The entire yellow area he outlines is north of the Caribbean. So, I'm assuming we should continue talking about the W Caribbean potential in the models thread for now? Tolakram, please clarify. Thanks. As long as we do so in one place.

[northjaxpro]

I was suspicious of this area last night, and sure enough, NHC is mentioning it now.

Definitely an area to watch given the synoptic set up as a huge ridge of High Pressure will set up shop over the Western Atlantic for much of the next 7 days or more.

[chaser1]

So many area's of disturbed weather, so little time..... varying models taking turns spinning up something or another. It's understandable how each areas proximity to each other and forecasted motion towards Yucatan, Cuba, W. Bahamas, and the Florida peninsula may have (or still is?) a cause for some confusion by some folks. All I know is, with each seemingly moving over, near, or towards Florida..... the complexity of it all must be giving fits to all the local Florida NWS forecast offices. So much so that I'm just waiting to see if some forecaster just throws their hands up and deciding to just write something within the Forecast Discusdion like "..... So, given the tightening pressure gradient between the forecast massive surface high expected to blanket the Eastern CONUS, along with any one of 3 or more areas of low pressure anticipated to approach Florida from the Bay of Campeeche, the W. Caribbean, the Southeast Bahamas, as well as now possibly developing over the Florida Straits, I've simply decided to hoist Tropical Storm Watches over the entire state of Florida for at least the 1st two weeks of October.....".

[BYG Jacob]

So many area's of disturbed weather, so little time..... varying models taking turns spinning up something or another. It's understandable how each areas proximity to each other and forecasted motion towards Yucatan, Cuba, W. Bahamas, and the Florida peninsula may have (or still is?) a cause for some confusion by some folks. All I know is, with each seemingly moving over, near, or towards Florida..... the complexity of it all must be giving fits to all the local Florida NWS forecast offices. So much so that I'm just waiting to see if some forecaster just throws their hands up and deciding to just write something within the Forecast Discusdion like "..... So, given the tightening pressure gradient between the forecast massive surface high expected to blanket the Eastern CONUS, along with any one of 3 or more areas of low pressure anticipated to approach Florida from the Bay of Campeeche, the W. Caribbean, the Southeast Bahamas, as well as now possibly developing over the Florida Straits, I've simply decided to hoist Tropical Storm Watches over the entire state of Florida for at least the 1st two weeks of October.....".

"Due to all the disturbances, I am now placing the entire gulf coast under a tropical storm watch for the next two weeks..."

[SFLcane]

This does not look like a favorable environment for either disturbance if you'd ask me.

[chaser1]

This does not look like a favorable environment for either disturbance if you'd ask me.

I have to agree. Fascinating how our broad large-scale stable Atlantic pattern, seems to have become so splintered. I'm guessing this'll be a pretty progressive cellular set up for a week or so, and then settle down some again. Seems to me that the only way we really see any near term cyclogenesis out of this mess, is if any actual tropical systems that do form, are quite small meso-scale type tropical cyclones that are small enough to potentially find relative small isolated environments less hostile than the larger overall W. Atlantic basin for this likely short snapshot of time.

[Blown Away]

[stormreader]

This does not look like a favorable environment for either disturbance if you'd ask me.

I have to agree. Fascinating how our broad large-scale stable Atlantic pattern, seems to have become so splintered. I'm guessing this'll be a pretty progressive cellular set up for a week or so, and then settle down some again. Seems to me that the only way we really see any near term cyclogenesis out of this mess, is if any actual tropical systems that do form, are quite small meso-scale type tropical cyclones that are small enough to potentially find relative small isolated environments less hostile than the larger overall W. Atlantic basin for this likely short snapshot of time.

You may be right about smaller systems finding their niche in this less hospitable environment. It's like we slipped into a different hurricane season with the passing of the equinox Sept 22. Still potential, but might be more shear involved.

[AtlanticWind]

New 18z GFS shows some development near florida,and system looks a little more organized tonight,
NHC maybe a little quick to lower chances to 0 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=171

1006 low

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/h5-loop-wv.html

Shear looks to be slightly less, this looks tough for puerto rico ,don't need anymore rain.


Thinking of all those people without power and the awful conditions tonight.
Hoping help comes soon.

[northjaxpro]

Yes. The tropical wave has battled back nicely today Convection looks quite robust and actually looks about as good as it ever has to this juncture. This unfortunately is terrible news for our neighbors in the U.S. Virgin Islands and across Puerto Rico, who are dealing with heavy rain potential currently with this system. The system appears to be drifting N/NW at this moment. I think this area has a chance to spin up the next few days. The large High Pressure ridge building down the Western Atlantic will likely steer this system eventually back to the west in the next 24-36 hours.

I think NHC will definitely have to look into raising the percentages for development in the coming days for sure, especially now that we are seeing the GFS get on board for development.

[AtlanticWind]

Looking at the gfs 18z 850 vorticity closer , Not completely sure this system
is the source of 1006 mb low off florida in about 5 days wierd

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

To be sure enough i think this TW might well jeopardize the W. Caribbean potential, and takes over the position of that potential. Look at the possible RI of this TW, and if it happens i think it might do some sort of Fujiwhara with the gyre, landfalling in Cuba as a Cat. 2 to Cat. 3 hurricane (not as strong as Irma), then once it passes Cuba as a Cat. 1 hurricane it quickly RI's (exploiting the favorable weather in that time) to become a Cat. 5 then brushes Belize and then Honduras before absorbing that gyre (also absorbing the SW Carribean low), giving some sorts of great disaster in the Central America generally on deaths and lookingly parallels Mitch and Hattie.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat.. appears we have a developing low level circ with the small area of convection north of DR litterally the only spot where the shear is not high. something to watch. you can see the S to SW flow coming off DR. Of course chances are low but if convection persists and it sits right in the sweet spot as the that upper low moves west it could do something.

[NDG]

looking at sat.. appears we have a developing low level circ with the small area of convection north of DR litterally the only spot where the shear is not high. something to watch. you can see the S to SW flow coming off DR. Of course chances are low but if convection persists and it sits right in the sweet spot as the that upper low moves west it could do something.

Good catch, definitely a nice vorticity but I do not think is quite down at the surface. Something to watch to see if it further develops.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat.. appears we have a developing low level circ with the small area of convection north of DR litterally the only spot where the shear is not high. something to watch. you can see the S to SW flow coming off DR. Of course chances are low but if convection persists and it sits right in the sweet spot as the that upper low moves west it could do something.

Good catch, definitely a nice vorticity but I do not think is quite down at the surface. Something to watch to see if it further develops.

yeah just in the low levels. would need more convection to persists.