Weak remnant low southwest of Nate

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing anything at the low levels, just an illusion of a circulation IMO, but it's jsut my opinion and fairly worthless at that.

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=7365&y=5991&z=4&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

GFS is on board the convective feedback train again, not sure you can believe anything it says at this point.

[floridasun78]

look like more and tropical wave winndy tand rainy like when get tropical system in miami

[northjaxpro]

The trough axis has literally been stationary for quite some time. However, is it just me, or does it seem that this area has drifted just a bit to the north over the past several hours?

[NDG]

One thing this subtropical looking disturbance will do is moisten up the atmosphere quite nice ahead of TD 16's track.

[NDG]

Nothing more than a sharp trough of low pressure at the surface at the moment, shear is still relentless over it.

[Aric Dunn]

the convection in and around the "Low" level circ is starting to get into radar range a little more... though still high up.. the convective pattern is very clear.

[Aric Dunn]

nope pressure in the area are not falling.... ....... eastern keys.. goes a littel beyond beyond normal afternoon pressure falls.. lol

[joey]

What ever this is is starting to follow the gfs model to the tee now looks like its starting to move north with a little blow up in conv right in the middle of the no center system lol

[Aric Dunn]

850 vorticity still increasing and expanding now.. shear will be high but to affect "nate" the pressures falling with this system and the low level circ slowly growing ( assuming convection keeps up near the center) is all that is needed.

[joey]

850 vorticity still increasing and expanding now.. shear will be high but to affect "nate" the pressures falling with this system and the low level circ slowly growing ( assuming convection keeps up near the center) is all that is needed.

Is it moving north tho away from Cuba thanks aric

[Aric Dunn]

850 vorticity still increasing and expanding now.. shear will be high but to affect "nate" the pressures falling with this system and the low level circ slowly growing ( assuming convection keeps up near the center) is all that is needed.

[img]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vorZ.GIF[/ig]

Is it moving north tho away from Cuba thanks aric

Well with the shear it is going to get tugged .. but overall steeering is west for the time being.

[Aric Dunn]

You can cearly see the circ slowly moving ( in this longer loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/e ... h-rgb.html zoom in too if you want) wnw to NW all afternoon and now evening. it is elongated as would be expected given the shear.

of course you will have to match up the static image with the loop. but the "low level" circ is easy to follow ( though the sw to tw winds are not very expansive do to the shear so the obs are not very useful over cuba..) with the convection that has developed with it and it matches with radar.. and pressures are falling.

[NDG]

IMO this is still nothing more than a mid level vorticity along with a sharp trough of low pressure underneath, perhaps tonight or tomorrow morning we will see a broad elongated circulation form with a subtropical look to it.

[joey]

dosent look like this no name thing wants to head west looks due north now lol

[Aric Dunn]

IMO this is still nothing more than a mid level vorticity along with a sharp trough of low pressure underneath, perhaps tonight or tomorrow morning we will see a broad elongated circulation form with a subtropical look to it.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cJc0SK3.gif[/mg]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/PYF3Brp.gif[/ig]

Looking at the last hour or so of radar are you still going to disagree with me now? post another one of those loops... especially doppler velocities the last hour as it has gotten closer the radar...

[hurricanehunter69]

I can clearly see why the NHC gives this a 0% chance of development by observing it's presentation on MIMIC. I still have faith in this vigorous system though, and would still look for slow development as the shear slackens. It will nevertheless be a very impactful system. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Aric Dunn]

I can clearly see why the NHC gives this a 0% chance of development by observing it's presentation on MIMIC. I still have faith in this vigorous system though, and would still look for slow development as the shear slackens. It will nevertheless be a very impactful system. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

If anything looking at MIMIC it shows the opposite ... a sharpening trough with a developing circ and increased moisture...

[NDG]

IMO this is still nothing more than a mid level vorticity along with a sharp trough of low pressure underneath, perhaps tonight or tomorrow morning we will see a broad elongated circulation form with a subtropical look to it.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cJc0SK3.gif[/mg]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/PYF3Brp.gif[/ig]

Looking at the last hour or so of radar are you still going to disagree with me now? post another one of those loops... especially doppler velocities the last hour as it has gotten closer the radar...

Surface reports don't lie, by now there would have been a sign of a circulation forming by surface reports.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO this is still nothing more than a mid level vorticity along with a sharp trough of low pressure underneath, perhaps tonight or tomorrow morning we will see a broad elongated circulation form with a subtropical look to it.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/cJc0SK3.gif[/mg]
[img]https://i.imgur.com/PYF3Brp.gif[/ig]

Looking at the last hour or so of radar are you still going to disagree with me now? post another one of those loops... especially doppler velocities the last hour as it has gotten closer the radar...

Surface reports don't lie, by now there would have been a sign of a circulation forming by surface reports.

there are insuffient surface reports ! lol

[NDG]

Looking at the last hour or so of radar are you still going to disagree with me now? post another one of those loops... especially doppler velocities the last hour as it has gotten closer the radar...

Surface reports don't lie, by now there would have been a sign of a circulation forming by surface reports.

there are insuffient surface reports ! lol

There are plenty of reporting stations south of the vorticity over Cuba, no west winds at all.