Weak remnant low southwest of Nate
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
It doesn't appear to be closed off. Still a vigorous tropical wave though.
For purposes of learning- is it the shear that is preventing the tropical wave from closing off?
And the convection is due to a GOM trough interacting with a stationary front over the Bahamas?
For purposes of learning- is it the shear that is preventing the tropical wave from closing off?
And the convection is due to a GOM trough interacting with a stationary front over the Bahamas?
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Levi Cowan yesterday showed the model run from Euro from Wednesday in which some piece of vorticity split off from the large axis. Early this morning, it appears that a portion of this system is drifting north along off the Southeast Florida East Coast, and the other split energy is the energy we currently see down near Key West that will move into the Gulf of Mexico. The emphasis here with Levi with pointing out that that a piece of energy that was shown on Euro to split off, one piece of vorticity which went north off the east coast of Florida, would keep that ridge of high pressure weak off the Florida Atlantic coast and that would play a huge role with regards to the eventual path of Tropical Depression 16 /future Nate.
I think that particular Euro run showing the split Energy may be taking place. It looks like there may be a piece of energy that is moving north along and off the East Coast of Florida. Should this be the case, this would have a very significant impact with future Nate later this weekend.A weakened HP ridge off the SE Atlantic coast would draw potential TC Nate more northeast with time and would likely eliminate areas from Pensacola westward from being directly impacted by the cyclone.
I think that particular Euro run showing the split Energy may be taking place. It looks like there may be a piece of energy that is moving north along and off the East Coast of Florida. Should this be the case, this would have a very significant impact with future Nate later this weekend.A weakened HP ridge off the SE Atlantic coast would draw potential TC Nate more northeast with time and would likely eliminate areas from Pensacola westward from being directly impacted by the cyclone.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Tropical or not, this is a very fascinating little feature. No doubt with shear 10-20kt weaker this trough area would have produced a tropical storm long ago.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
From Miami NWS
Radar indicates a low level vortex has been trying to close
off along this trough in the vicinity of some deep convection about
130 miles SSW of Miami. GOES-16 imagery and model soundings
indicate the trailing side of the tropical wave has considerably
more moisture and unstable air compared to the leading side.
Radar indicates a low level vortex has been trying to close
off along this trough in the vicinity of some deep convection about
130 miles SSW of Miami. GOES-16 imagery and model soundings
indicate the trailing side of the tropical wave has considerably
more moisture and unstable air compared to the leading side.
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Aric Dunn wrote:northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I will say this, that vigorous little vortex is doing its absolute best to close off I can assuredly say that.
I am shocked to see that this isn't even an invest and is getting only 0% chance of formation. lol....
That circulation is awesome and very pretty.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
I have stated this a few times already, but I have been very disappointed in the handling of this feature by NHC. This should have been tagged an invest at least 24 hours ago. However, to constantly throw at the general public that this had 0% chance of development, especially considering this entity's proximity to Florida, is actually an insult to knowledgeable and experienced people who do this business in their everyday lives! Highly disappointed with NHC about this!!
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Took the dog out, and was surprised by the wind and rain just NE of Orlando this morning. Big gusts of wind with a fast moving band felt just below TS conditions.
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- SuperMarioBros99thx
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
I think this could well be Nate now. I really doubted that TD 16 would be Nate and i am closer to get this statement true.
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My opinions are mine and SHOULD not be treated as an official source of information. PLEASE see National Hurricane Center, or any other meteorological agencies, for that matter. By the way, I was born and came from Indonesia, which is rarely hit by tropical cyclones, but regardless, I have LOTS of interest in meteorology.
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Not every low level swirl is a storm.
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/915854216987648000
Jim Cantore ✔@JimCantore
You can thank 40kts of shear for not letting this develop south of the Keys. Still = Enhanced rainfall/wind for FL however.
4:20 AM - Oct 5, 2017
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/915854216987648000
Jim Cantore ✔@JimCantore
You can thank 40kts of shear for not letting this develop south of the Keys. Still = Enhanced rainfall/wind for FL however.
4:20 AM - Oct 5, 2017
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:It doesn't appear to be closed off. Still a vigorous tropical wave though.
For purposes of learning- is it the shear that is preventing the tropical wave from closing off?
And the convection is due to a GOM trough interacting with a stationary front over the Bahamas?
The shear is keeping it from developing, since it shears away the convection that helps close off the circulation
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Hail to the new king, the GFS, and to Aric
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Shear seems to have relaxed somewhat from yesterday. There is a closed circulation evident on Radar. Not sure why we're not close to a TD yet. If it organizes more today with increased convection, I would say we have a TD.
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=BYX&loop=yes
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=BYX&loop=yes
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- kevin mathis
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
NDG wrote:Hail to the new king, the GFS, and to Aric
We can go ahead and have a sizing scheduled for Artic's new crown, but lets hold off on the GFS. I would still place the GFS in the royal court, perhaps the role of Jester is more fitting.
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Surface reports from the Keys and western Cuba agree that the vorticity has closed at the surface.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
Technically, this is a tropical depression at least.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: Trough of low pressure from Cuba into Straits of Florida
NHC 8 am update
A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. In addition, an area of low
pressure is starting to develop near the Florida Keys. A gale
warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale force expected
through mid-day today in the Straits of Florida.
A tight pressure gradient over the W Atlantic N of 20N supports
20-30 kt easterly winds W of 70W. In addition, an area of low
pressure is starting to develop near the Florida Keys. A gale
warning is in effect for frequent gusts to gale force expected
through mid-day today in the Straits of Florida.
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