Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
12z Euro already showing a 1005mb closed low in 24hrs.
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MGC
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
I imagine it will be an invest real soon. Doubt it takes off real fast with that ULL to its north.....MGC
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
gatorcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:gatorcane wrote:And looking at climo, even if the system were to form further north, climo still strongly favors Florida, particularly South Florida though there are some tracks along the northern Gulf coast.
https://s1.postimg.org/1n5xwgoo5r/histo ... acks_2.jpg
Gator,
Are those tracks for the entire Oct. by chance or just for early Oct.?
Entire month of October
That changes the discussion somewhat as we know that mid to late October, they usually do shift NE. Do you have a plot of early October systems?
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
999 millibars in 48hrs.
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toad strangler
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
It should be noted that we aren't deep enough into October to discount a September climo track which is currently being modeled.
Last edited by toad strangler on Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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chris_fit
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
Looks like it going more W early on, increasing land interaction per the 12Z ECMF
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
gatorcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:gatorcane wrote:And looking at climo, even if the system were to form further north, climo still strongly favors Florida, particularly South Florida though there are some tracks along the northern Gulf coast.
https://s1.postimg.org/1n5xwgoo5r/histo ... acks_2.jpg
Gator,
Are those tracks for the entire Oct. by chance or just for early Oct.?
Entire month of October
That's what I suspected. Very early Oct. tracks ON AVERAGE don't curve as sharply NEward as those later in the month. So, if it were to landfall west of FL, it wouldn't be as much of an outlier.
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tolakram
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
12Z Euro so far
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M a r k
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
toad strangler wrote:SoupBone wrote:30-50kt shear right now in the central GoM.
Once it reaches 40kt there should be a different term. Perhaps guillotine
Some areas have 60kts right now, though closer to Florida. That's most definitely guillotine territory.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
Like some have said, the models have not handled genesis of this very well if what the 12z Euro shows comes to pass.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
12Z way more bullish at hour 48+ with it being more concentrated and having a lower pressure. The main reason may be because it does much less with that area that's now near Jamaica and thus less competition.
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tolakram
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance
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M a r k
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