Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[Hurricaneman]

The models show development with this and the monsoon gyre is setting up there as well at the moment

see invest thread here: viewtopic.php?p=2650266#p2650266

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

2X

[chris_fit]

FWIW The last 4 EURO runs show development of some sort, moving in the general vicinity of the W FL or Panhandle. Lets see what the 12Z run shows later today.

Sep 30 12z


Oct 1 00z


Oct 1 12z


Oct 2 00z

[weathaguyry]

It seems pretty typical for this time of year, hopefully we don't have an insane October/November

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like tampa to venice strike. No way to indicate or forecast strength accurately. I would be concerned tho given where its coming from. The potential for a catastrophic set up is definitely there and the energy is completely untapped.

[blp]

Ukmet coming in a little stronger at the 00z and heads toward the panhandle. Looks to be West of Euro and GFS ATM.

[USTropics]

Climatology definitely supports development in this area, but these type of systems are not always a guarantee to organize (i.e. large gyre with multiple, competing vortices):

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/914839285441945600

[Blown Away]

00z CMC/GEM... Cat 1 into Big Bend area...

[Blown Away]

06z Navgem... Strengthening Cat 1 into Alabama/Panhandle...

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles have many clustered near Western Cuba:

[Blown Away]

00z Euro/ECMWF... 997mb Strong TS/Cat 1 into Big Bend area...

[chaser1]

The models show development with this and the monsoon gyre is setting up there as well at the moment

Not sure what we're looking at?? Wave over the W. Caribbean appears to be moving over Yucatan & Central America? Otherwise, conditions appear less than favorable at the moment. Other than the model conversation, what feature here is presently being considered for the potential for development? Frankly, from my perspective it sort of looks as if the entire Atlantic had been shaken like a large snow globe as compared to the prior 4-6 weeks.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/914862448913666048

[gatorcane]

Look down in the SW Caribbean north of Panama. Convection is on the increase as the gyre develops. The area should lift north this week.

[crm6360]

looks like tampa to venice strike. No way to indicate or forecast strength accurately. I would be concerned tho given where its coming from. The potential for a catastrophic set up is definitely there and the energy is completely untapped.

There is potential for a tropical disturbance. Nothing in the models suggests anything catastrophic. Need to be more guarded in the language selection.

[gatorcane]

Looks like most of the GEPS (Canadian ensembles) turn this NE in the SE GOM over South Florida/Keys:

[SFLcane]

Not sure Gatorcane the NHC has area for development way north in the NW caribbean but i agree convection is on the increase down there.

[SFLcane]

EPS almost up to 80% probability for TD

[gatorcane]

Not sure Gatorcane the NHC has area for development way north in the NW caribbean but i agree convection is on the increase down there.

It's a little confusing. What I see with the GEFS for example is that the vorticity starts in the SW Caribbean and moves north into the NW Caribbean with development. That seems different than the NHC shaded area.