Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[chris_fit]

I would think with the global model consensus NHC will bump the odds up above 30% in the 5 day now.

I agree - I'm going to go as far as say 60% within 48 hours - 80% 5 day

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.8N 88.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2017 120 28.6N 87.7W 999 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 132 30.3N 86.4W 997 33
1200UTC 09.10.2017 144 32.0N 83.5W 999 32

[psyclone]

I would think with the global model consensus NHC will bump the odds up above 30% in the 5 day now.

I agree - I'm going to go as far as say 60% within 48 hours - 80% 5 day

With 4 forecast cycles per day they have ample time to work in no greater than 10% increments which is what they often do.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Cat 1 near New Orleans...

[northjaxpro]

12Z GFS has strong TS making landfall near New Orleans 12Z Sunday morning. We will see how later runs will fare with this.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... TS/Cat 1 near Fl/Alabama line...

[gatorcane]

DEV chances definitely going up here. For now northern Gulf coast seems the target. NAVGEM similar to the GFS and CMC.

[rickybobby]

Any chance of it coming to central Florida or to early to say?

[ronjon]

Of course being on the west coast of Fl north of Tampa, I'd rather be in the 4-5 day path. Think any future track adjustments might be east (hoping not). Will be glued to the model runs the next 3 days.

[SFLcane]

57 did mention anything that does develop will move north and northeast her didnt buy those northern solutions. Climo says Florida we shall see

[SoupBone]

Is that 30-40kt shear supposed to hang around in the central GoM?

[ronjon]

57 did mention anything that does develop will move north and northeast her didnt buy those northern solutions. Climo says Florida we shall see

Yeah SFL, climo isn't our friend in Florida this time of year.

[SoupBone]

57 did mention anything that does develop will move north and northeast her didnt buy those northern solutions. Climo says Florida we shall see

But some models plant a high right on top of Florida. I guess we'll see in a few days how that setup will play out.

[USTropics]

All storms that have formed since 1851 for the first 10 days of October, including their tracks (doesn't include 2016 data yet):

[toad strangler]

57 did mention anything that does develop will move north and northeast her didnt buy those northern solutions. Climo says Florida we shall see

Well most likely climo tracks say FL but that region of the Gulf is certainly in the "climo cone" so to speak.

[ronjon]

Well lets see what king Euro says...it has the best 4-5 day model track error.

[chaser1]

Of course being on the west coast of Fl north of Tampa, I'd rather be in the 4-5 day path. Think any future track adjustments might be east (hoping not). Will be glued to the model runs the next 3 days.

I tend to agree, though I'm thinking no further east than Cedar Key and probably Central Panhandle. As chaotic as the W. Atlantic had looked over the recent few days, and as scattered as the models have been.... i'm impressed with the appearance of the present system in the far SW Caribbean this a.m. along with the shockingly similar and logical solutions the models have for the system. I'd guess it could be classified as an invest by tomm. a.m.?

[toad strangler]

Well lets see what king Euro says...it has the best 4-5 day model track error.

Euro spoke at 0z and it was West. I doubt it swings back to the E significantly.

[cajungal]

12z GFS... Cat 1 near New Orleans...

Looks like Terrebonne/Lafourche parish

[DESTRUCTION5]

These tend to stay in Caribbean much longer than modeling predict sometimes. Looking like something is GOING to form Timing of when it comes out and where will make huge diff in endgame from LA to WCFL.