Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

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SoupBone
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#161 Postby SoupBone » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:10 pm

30-50kt shear right now in the central GoM.

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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#162 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:30-50kt shear right now in the central GoM.

Image


Once it reaches 40kt there should be a different term. Perhaps guillotine :D
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#163 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:21 pm

SE. LA. to Fl. panhandle looks like a good bet with this potential system. IMO
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#164 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:29 pm

The 12Z GEFS seems to be recognizing more going on with the area N of Panama as it has many more members than prior GEFS runs with development within 48 hours and a TC at 72 hours NE of Honduras. Also, most members do avoid land and stay just E of Nic/Honduras. Furthermore, there are many more landfalls on the northern US Gulf coast, with most of these on 10/8 and concentrated from W LA to the W FL Panhandle.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#165 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:40 pm

NHC 1pm update is up to 40%-60%.

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#166 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:42 pm

:uarrow: That's quite a jump in development chances. :eek:
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#167 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:42 pm

SFLcane wrote:57 did mention anything that does develop will move north and northeast her didnt buy those northern solutions. Climo says Florida we shall see
He did say that the Euro version taking it into the panhandle was not an 'unreasonable solution'. Also most importantly he noted that it would most likely be a sheared, lop sided weakish T.S.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#168 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:42 pm

wow! 40-60%
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#169 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:43 pm

SoupBone wrote:Is that 30-40kt shear supposed to hang around in the central GoM?


Bit tricky of a forecast for the next 24-48 hr.'s. As I see it that'll greatly impact "who" and "how strong" (amount or lack of upper level shear) this'll become. This system has taken on a nice overall shape in a short amount of time. Broad and weak ad it is, it should be primarily steered very slowly WNW'ish within the lower flow or even close to stationary. Quicker development and a somewhat more vertically stacked system would seem to indicate a more immediate (albiet 10 knots or less) motion off toward the northwest and possibly emerge off W. Yucatan as NHC has primarily analyzed. As I see it, the ramifications seem significant. Firstly, the upper level shear over the Central & Eastern Gulf is a result in a 200 mb dip in the jet stream over the south central U.S. The pattern thus far this summer for both the higher latitude Westerlies and the lower latitude mid/upper level cut-off's have seemed consistently very progressive and the forecast charts dont indicate any change. So...., a lot seems to be in motion right now and it seems to me that any tropical system that develops in the south central Gulf, will encounter some moderate upper level shear, though a building upper anticyclone over itself in conjunction with building upper level ridging over the northern and eastern GOM (from the east, and in the wake of a dip of 200mb energy
pulling back up and into the higher latitude Westerlies). The result would seem to be similar to how models generally project a slowly deepening storm toward the end of the mid-term forecast cycle and leading up to eventual landfall. HOWEVER, should this system NOT be immediately pulled toward the west or northwest and somehow remain more or less stationary (or a very slow northward drift) for 36-48 hours..... then I think we'd be looking at a potentially stronger (potentially Cat.2 possibly Cat 3??) hurricane that by virtue of its further east longitude, would seem to put it in an environment of little to no shear and also in a position where the timing of a westward building mid level high east of the Bahamas & N. Caribbean, would cause a northward motion that would imply a more direct threat to the Florida Panhandle or possibly W. Coast of Florida north of Tampa.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#170 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:46 pm

Invest 90L seems imminent.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#171 Postby fci » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:46 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:NHC 1pm update is up to 40%-60%.

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Surprised with those %’s that it isn’t an Invest yet
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#172 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:53 pm

Seems that the sooner something forms, the more likely an eventual Florida threat this becomes looking at climo. For example, if it formed way down in the SW Caribbean quicker than models thought:

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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#173 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:53 pm

12Z Euro clearly has a stronger system down there at hour 24 vs its 0Z run hour 36.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#174 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:54 pm

mmm high pressure will be over florida, also cold front doesn't look as strong, we should know something Thursday.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#175 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:54 pm

Already a broad circulation north of Panama, east of Nica. caught by ASCAT this morning.

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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#176 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:56 pm

And looking at climo, even if the system were to form further north, climo still strongly favors Florida, particularly South Florida though there are some tracks along the northern Gulf coast.

Image
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#177 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:58 pm

yeah clim does, but the whole pattern is weird right now.........high pressure in the SE, cold fronts aren't really strong right now so pattern just different.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#178 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:58 pm

gatorcane wrote:And looking at climo, even if the system were to form further north, climo still strongly favors Florida, particularly South Florida though there are some tracks along the northern Gulf coast.

Image


Gator,
Are those tracks for the entire Oct. by chance or just for early Oct.?
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#179 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:59 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z GEFS seems to be recognizing more going on with the area N of Panama as it has many more members than prior GEFS runs with development within 48 hours and a TC at 72 hours NE of Honduras. Also, most members do avoid land and stay just E of Nic/Honduras. Furthermore, there are many more landfalls on the northern US Gulf coast, with most of these on 10/8 and concentrated from W LA to the W FL Panhandle.


Wow? Just finished my post and immediately saw NHC's revision to their TWO from earlier. Just now catching up and having read what you indicated that the GEF members were now indicating, doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy. Hope I'm wrong here, but now I'm thinking that both GFS & EURO will probably have this as a stronger system .... if not by tonights 0Z run, then very well on subsequent model runs to follow. Amazing how quickly this event may be evolving, especially in light of the fact that this isn't a very small envelope type system. Yesterday morning, I was betting the farm that we wouldn't see a T.D. develop sooner than 120 hours. If this doesn't move inland during the next 48 hours, then I'd be losing that bet big time.
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Re: Western Caribbean disturbance

#180 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:59 pm

LarryWx wrote:
gatorcane wrote:And looking at climo, even if the system were to form further north, climo still strongly favors Florida, particularly South Florida though there are some tracks along the northern Gulf coast.

https://s1.postimg.org/1n5xwgoo5r/histo ... acks_2.jpg


Gator,
Are those tracks for the entire Oct. by chance or just for early Oct.?


Entire month of October
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