Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)

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tolakram
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Tropical Wave east of the Lesser Antilles (now Invest 92L)

#1 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:18 pm

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/915968733478359040




Brenden Moses @Cyclonebiskit
Curious disturbance over open Atlantic. ASCAT found 40 kt winds on eastern side but no closed center. Models do nothing with it.
11:55 AM - Oct 5, 2017 · University Park, FL
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#2 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:28 pm

Was just noticing that. Right along the ITCZ. Little shear or dry air currently. Very interesting disturbance.

Not on the TWO, however, at 2pm... if this were August or early September, a system looking like that and associated with a tropical wave would be sounding all the alarm bells. FWIW, the 12z Canadian actually develops this central Atlantic system just a little, buuuut it is the GEM, lol.
Last edited by EquusStorm on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#3 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:38 pm

I'm surprised that no one mentions the strong convection and what seems to be turning at 38W/10N? Looks like a potential system coming from the east. Maybe I'm over-tired, but this looks to have potential. ???
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#4 Postby Steve H. » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:44 pm

OH, I just posted this in another thread. Nobody seems to be talking about it. Looks quite impressive to me. I think this will get a name, but I haven't had a lot of sleep.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#5 Postby AubreyStorm » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:49 pm

Steve H. wrote:I'm surprised that no one mentions the strong convection and what seems to be turning at 38W/10N? Looks like a potential system coming from the east. Maybe I'm over-tired, but this looks to have potential. ???


Interesting!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#6 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:28 pm

Steve H. wrote:OH, I just posted this in another thread. Nobody seems to be talking about it. Looks quite impressive to me. I think this will get a name, but I haven't had a lot of sleep.


Created new thread and merged. Earlier in the year this would be something IMO.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:29 pm

I noticed this area last night on the wide view Atlantic satellite imagery. The wave looks awfully impressive with.an impressive structure. and it certainly needs to be watched, although we generally do not look that far out in the Tropical Atlantic once we enter into October. CV storm frequency drops off generally after Oct 1. However, the way this season has been, I would not even rule out this possibility whatsoever.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:37 pm

Has there EVER been a long-tracking Cape Verde storm in October? Usually anything that forms out there this late turns north very quickly.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#9 Postby LarryWx » Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Has there EVER been a long-tracking Cape Verde storm in October? Usually anything that forms out there this late turns north very quickly.


Going back to 1851, I couldn't find any TC with a post 9/25 genesis east of 55W that came all of the way to the CONUS.
However, storm #9 of 1893, which formed on 9/25 at 25W and didn't hit the US til 10/13, was still moving WNW or NW east of 55W through 10/4:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#10 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:52 pm

Looks awesome.

If the convection can maintain and with those winds it already has I'd say this has some chance.

Should be seeing the nhc including it in the 8pm as a 30% chance of development(at least).
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#11 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:46 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Looks awesome.

If the convection can maintain and with those winds it already has I'd say this has some chance.

Should be seeing the nhc including it in the 8pm as a 30% chance of development(at least).

looking at look like td but time year we dont look out that area but who know this been crazy hurr season
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#12 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:15 pm

Someone is taking note since they moved a satellite over it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#13 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:00 pm

i think nhc thinking tooo bit south and oct not part season see td that area why not outlook put was aug that why we dont see circle
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#14 Postby abajan » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:49 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i think nhc thinking tooo bit south and oct not part season see td that area why not outlook put was aug that why we dont see circle

I'm almost certain it will appear in the TWO shortly. If not the 2 AM, the 8 AM. It just looks too suspicious to be ignored.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#15 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:24 pm

Still no closed center on ASCAT but lots of turning on satellite, decent convection, and near gale winds on the east side. Climatology may say this sort of thing would be rare, but what actually happens in reality can be quite different from what climatology would suggest. There really isn't a reason this couldn't develop since there is an impressive disturbance to start with... but whether it will or not, who knows. Models aren't super enthusiastic at the moment.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#16 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:56 pm

Looking at shear map it's now trying to develop an anticyclone over it. If it holds this could develop for real.
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Re: Eastern Atlantic disturbance

#17 Postby abajan » Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:39 am

Lost most of its convection overnight, but I don't know how well developed its circulation is.
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Re: Low latitude central Atlantic disturbance

#18 Postby stormzilla » Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:06 am

Is this the same one the NHC is ref to here....

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 06N43W, which is expected to move NW towards
10N46W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from 14N40W
to the low center to 05N43W, and has been moving W at 10 kt. The
wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear and is experiencing
dry air intrusion to its environment as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels. This is limiting convection to
scattered moderate from 06N-14N between 39W-46W just underneath
middle to upper level divergent flow.
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Re: Low latitude central Atlantic disturbance

#19 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:36 am

didnt one of the models develop this and send through the florida straights? GFS I think did for 2 or 3 runs and it dropped it.
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Re: Low latitude central Atlantic disturbance

#20 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:32 pm

stormzilla wrote:Is this the same one the NHC is ref to here....

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 06N43W, which is expected to move NW towards
10N46W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from 14N40W
to the low center to 05N43W, and has been moving W at 10 kt. The
wave is in a region of strong vertical wind shear and is experiencing
dry air intrusion to its environment as indicated by CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels. This is limiting convection to
scattered moderate from 06N-14N between 39W-46W just underneath
middle to upper level divergent flow.


Yes, that's the case, so I deleted the other thread you started.
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